Is anyone selling now?

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Jim4silver, Jul 14, 2016.

  1. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

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    Nothing wrong with selling if you need to or if you can turn a profit....after all, isn't one of those reasons why most sane people buy a commodity like physical silver in the first place?


    For me, since I began the process of stacking when silver was nearly double the price it is these days, it's a much different calculation for me than for those who were smart or lucky enough to begin their stacking adventures when silver was significantly lower.



    I'll wait till silver is $15,000 an ounce before I sell....I'm looking to really maximize my profits! :lol:



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  2. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

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    That is a very low premium. I suspect that 2016 bullion ASE's will, sometime in the next couple of months, be put on low premium sale by a number of the dealers. But since my crystal ball has been broken since I bought that damn thing....don't take this as investment advice because I could very well be wrong.



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  3. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    The price is still over $20, and the Comex position sized near 100000 x 5000.
    So it doesn't look like there's alot selling. At least not back to the hedgers / dealers. Otherwise they'd dumped positions.
    So those that do sell now, apparently go against the herd, they do the opposite of what most others do.
    That tends to be a plus in a zero sum market where frontrunning most others is the key for the green door.
     
  4. Shalong02

    Shalong02 New Member

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    Love this metal!

    I think it has a lot of potential. Although the price has declined again from Sunday eve, I do think in the long-run the silver price will develop better than gold.

    Currently my silver investement is above 25%. I buy physical silver and keep this in storage in Zurich, for the one who woul dlike to know how I do this, check their website --------

    Any other tips from you guys? Yes, read the forum rules about new members posting links- House :)
     
  5. Marchas45

    Marchas45 New Member

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    Nothing wrong with selling Jim, as you know I do it all the time. Most of all my wealth is in silver and when I have some fiat I just buy and when i need some fiat, I just sell. It all works out in the end. To me it's all material. keep Stacking
     
  6. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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    Good to hear from you Charlie! I was looking at silver's chart. Does this look a bit like a possible head and shoulders forming? (We look possibly ready to drop form the right shoulder)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER

    Jim
     
  7. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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    Looks like I can't keep that money I got from selling in my pocket for too long. Took advantage of the price drop and got a lucky score. An acquaintance tried to sell a tube of 1988 Mexican Libertads and the local stores he visited only wanted to pay melt or 50 cents above. I took them off his hands for $2 over melt since he didn't want to screw around trying to sell them online. In plastic tube not original tube.

    Apparently 1988 is a slightly better year and the coins are in great shape. Some have minor toning- or rather had minor toning :D. Once I finally get my ebay account set up I should be able to flip these pretty easily. They look much better than some that sold for $50+ on ebay.


    Jim
     
  8. Silverpv

    Silverpv New Member

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    I sold a bit and I bought a bit more.
     
  9. Marchas45

    Marchas45 New Member

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  10. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Should not forget that the metal does / develops nothing, it's people exchanging it for fiat and back that do.
    Silver isn't an "investment" alike a machine that outputs more (or less) than it costs, it's just stockpiling and destockpiling the same thing it was.
    The sole question then is, who is the smartest at the time you buy or sell, you, or the one exchanging with you.
    In 2011 people bought near $50 because they were told people would buy it later on for $100.
    The same applies to the other side of the price sweep, people sold at $14 because they were told people would later ask only $10.
    There is one big certainty: every ounce bought, will be sold later on. Silver doesn't perish into the void / zero value, its owners won't dump it in the ocean.
    So the future price perspective, in terms of purchasing power, is a function of a present stockpile.
    And those stockpiles silver grew big time during the $5 > $50 bull market, and despite the back down to $15, they aren't even sold so far. Just the dropped demand sufficed.
    The last price upspike, was entirely a futures market story. Where an order nearly always gets delivered in dollars instead of commodity. Being an order of 500 million ounces, reflected in the price, but will never be delivered, order gets cancelled, and its price reflection with it.
     
  11. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

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    Physical precious metals are a form of investment contrary to the misinformed claims of those who believe it can't be.


    An investment is an asset or item that is purchased with the hope that it will generate income or appreciate in the future. In an economic sense, an investment is the purchase of goods that are not consumed today but are used in the future to create wealth. In finance, an investment is a monetary asset purchased with the idea that the asset will provide income in the future or appreciate and be sold at a higher price.

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/investment.asp


    Physical precious metals are purchased as investments by people because they are an investment.



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  12. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Silver generates nothing, creates no wealth, it's just metal, a dead metal clump, stays like that, gets bought, gets sold, just like anything that perishes slow enough to allow storage.
    Therefore, the term "saving" applies.
    That is the economic sense: a product used as an inbetween step to others, known as "medium of exchange". It's.... money.
    It's not an investment in any way. Nothing even changes to a product (unlike for ex silver that gets processed to a computer component).
    An investor puts... money... into a product, or a human, that can, or fails to, get out more production and thus money.

    "Finance", well bah, is just a term that can be used for anything. On its own it says nothing, it's managing a whole of whatever products that can be used as medium of exchange and/or storage of value.

    If the price of a stored dead product changes over time, then that has nothing to do with creation of anything, just with outspeeding others in buying / selling it (aka frontrunning).

    In contrary to an investment, silvers 'provide income', is NOT a macro economical extra or lost value (the so called "bigger cake" or "smaller cake").
    It's just a shift of existing value, just like when a thief passes....

    And then there is such thing as "speculation". Is buying / selling silver speculation?
    Well, that's also a simple one: it's speculation when a risk exists before the act of speculating AND when that risk (the risk itself, not the chosen product) is beyond human control.

    For ex, imagine that there is a chance / risk that the silver mines in your trading region of the world get flooded with water, beyond human control.
    Johnny, has discovered / recognized this risk (by studying natural processes), and thus thinks that the silver price will explode (yeeeehaa huraaaaa!).
    So, Johnny buys some stock silver, while it's still cheap. But Johnny can still be wrong about the flood or not and lose instead of gain.
    This Johnny, is a speculator.

    On the other hand, imagine there is a government in that region of Johnny, that holds most silver stock, and wants to sell it for more, and decides to force the price higher, by triggering that flood on purpose (ex sabotage). There it ceases to be "speculation": the flooding risk didn't exist before, it was created post the act (buying silver stocks), on purpose, human control.
    And imagine Johnny wasn't a geologist / didn't study natural processes, just got a tip from government that let him know what they were upto. Right there, Johnny would also cease to be a speculator.

    Based on what I've read from you, you should be able to recognize and understand the why, the principles behind the terminology.
    Terminology, is a way to communicate. Terminology is a means to a goal. The means isn't important, the goal is.
    What is here the problem: same terms are used for multiple goals. Therefore, I see it as crucial that terms are used in the context of their application.
    The application for silver for me was/is: preserving purchasing power. I want to be able to buy back the value I produced. Nothing more, nothing less. I didn't "invest" at all.
    If it turns out that I paid too much, and thus failed the goal, then that is because I allowed others to frontrun me, and (and that's my choice) have to bite the bullet, make error > suffer consequence.
    That also illustrates the "human control" part in aboves flooding analogy: it ceases to be observing natural processes beyond human control, it's all about observing what other people do, much like pocket thieves on a market place. They aren't there for the traded products, but for other peoples money for nothing. This has nothing to do with economy / investment ...
     
  13. JNS

    JNS Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I am still buying too. Just bought 60oz of silver. Few 1/5th gold coins. Keeping some funds a little for 2017s release probably i will sell some ugly stuff. I see many of my friends moving their silver and buying some golds. I can say, wishing to upgrade my inventory.
     
  14. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    That shift to gold, is precisely the goal of the central planners. There is a reason that the GSR rose alot: central banks driving the gold price up, and gold ETF's, the latter being big funds, that usually get out once they snipped your money.

    Central bank & other institutions
    - positive figure means total net = selling
    - negative figure means total net = buying
    year / tonnes (multiple figures separated by a > = last update most right / average gold price that year
    1997 326 $330.98
    1998 363 $294.24
    1999 477 $278.88
    2000 479 $279.11
    2001 520 $271.04
    2002 547 $309.73
    2003 620 $363.38
    2004 479 $409.72
    2005 663 $444.74
    2006 365 $603.46
    2007 484 $695.39
    2008 235 $871.96
    2009 34 $972.35
    >>> 5592 tonnes gold sold over the period 1997-2009
    2010 -77 $1224.53
    2011 -455 $1571.52
    2012 -544.1 $1668.98
    2013 -386.6(2014Q1) > -409.3(2014Q2) > -625.5 (2015Q1) $1411.23
    2014 -477.2(2014Q4) > -588.0(2015Q1) > -590.5 (2015Q2) > -583.9 (2015Q4) $1211.71
    2015 -425.8(Q1-3) > -588.4 (2015Q4) > -566.3 (2016Q1)
    >>> 2290 tonnes gold bought over the period 2010-2014

    ETFs and similar products
    1997 0 $330.98
    1998 0 $294.24
    1999 0 $278.88
    2000 0 $279.11
    2001 0 $271.04
    2002 3 $309.73 $0.030b
    2003 39 $363.38 $0.456b
    2004 133 $409.72 $1.752b
    2005 208 $444.74 $2.974b
    2006 260 $603.46 $5.044b
    2007 253 $695.39 $5.656b
    2008 321 $871.96 $8.999b
    2009 617 $972.35 $19.288b
    2010 367.7 $1224.53 $11.822b
    2011 154.0 $1571.52 $4.951b
    2012 279.1 $1668.98 $8.973b <- +2634.8
    2013 -880 > -916.0 $1411.23 -$41.561b > -916.3 (2015Q2) > -915.9 (2015Q3)
    2014 -159.1 > -183.8 $1294.64 -$5.909b > -184.2 (2015Q2) > -183.1 (2015Q3) > -185.1 (2015Q4) > -183.6 (2016Q1)
    2015 -133.4 > -128.3 (2016Q1)

    This is to be taken into account seriously.
    Both gold and silver prices, sit historically high, even at silvers current $20.
    Those stocks will be sold in the coming decades (the usual time horizon), suppressing the price trend relative to the general prices trend, much like in the late eighties, nineties and early 200x.
    I decided to not pay more than $15 for next purchases. But since I bought most around $30, and won't be able to buy enough lower to compensate, it can at best only lower the loss.
    Just continu buying in any uptrend, no lol. The stocks around became too big, and what got stockpiled, will get destockpiled again.
    Just hang on a couple months, be sure that stock market 6 years bubble will bust again. That's also the purpose of the central planning: generate major cycles of crises / concerns, in order to make savers waste their savings along temporary driven up prices. And then $15 will easily return. The most recent silver uptrend was nearly solely due to futures market positions. In the underlying cash market, nothing has changed.
     
  15. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Check this:

    YEAR SILVER GOLD GSR
    1970 1.635 35.94 21.98
    1971 1.394 40.80 29.27
    1972 1.976 58.16 29.43
    1973 3.137 97.32 31.02
    1974 4.391 159.26 36.27 <- peak silver
    1975 4.085 161.02 39.42 <- peak gold
    1976 4.347 124.84 28.72 <- bottom silver AND bottom gold
    1977 4.706 147.71 31.39
    1978 5.930 193.22 32.58
    1979 21.793 306.68 14.07 <- peak silver
    1980 16.393 612.56 37.37 <- peak gold
    1981 8.432 460.03 54.56
    1982 10.586 375.67 35.49 <- peak silver
    1983 9.121 424.35 46.52 <- peak gold
    1984 6.694 360.48 53.85
    1985 5.888 317.26 53.88
    1986 5.364 367.66 68.54
    1987 6.790 446.46 65.75 <- peak silver AND peak gold
    1988 6.108 436.94 71.54
    1989 5.543 381.44 68.81
    1990 4.068 383.51 94.27
    1991 3.909 362.11 92.63
    1992 3.710 343.82 92.67 <- bottom silver AND bottom gold
    1993 4.968 359.77 72.42
    1994 4.769 384.00 80.52
    1995 5.148 384.17 74.63 <- peak silver
    1996 4.730 387.77 81.98 <- peak gold
    1997 5.945 330.98 55.67
    1998 5.549 294.24 53.03
    1999 5.218 278.88 53.45
    2000 4.9506 279.11 56.38
    2001 4.3702 271.04 62.02 <- bottom silver AND bottom gold
    2002 4.5995 309.73 67.34
    2003 4.8758 363.38 74.53
    2004 6.6711 409.72 61.42
    2005 7.3164 444.74 60.79
    2006 11.5452 603.46 52.27
    2007 13.3836 695.39 51.96
    2008 14.9891 871.96 58.17
    2009 14.6733 972.35 66.27
    2010 20.1928 1224.53 60.64
    2011 35.1192 1571.52 44.75 <- peak silver
    2012 31.1497 1668.98 53.58 <- peak gold
    2013 23.7928 1411.23 59.31
    2014 20.3715 1266.40 63.55
    2015 16.6489 1211.78 72.78 P

    All the prices are averages, because those determine the amount ounces, not some peak or bottom during the year.
    Just look at how frequent the sequence peak avg silver > peak avg gold was.
    It's clearly a returning phenomenon, and it's easy to give it an explanation: first the CP focuses silver (more nubs), then nubs buy, then CP sells, nubs disappointed, then CP focuses on gold, then nubs think oh gold does it better than silver, they sell silver for gold, then CP dumps gold, and nubs disappointed... again. Two times milked, one year between. And 1-2 decades no nubs reconsidering gold/silver (while precisely then they should).
    This way, the CP can keep the silver price effects outside "stockpiling" within allowable degrees. If the CP would start to stockpile silver just like gold, it would be a burden on all silver processors / industrials.
     
  16. JNS

    JNS Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Yup continously and bit slowly. Money that can't hurt the budget probably extras or "part of" savings. I am encouraged to sell some of them but to upgrade or correct only my present position. Putting them all into gold and silver is not wise at all.
     
  17. pi

    pi Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I've just dug out some coins that were purchased around 2013-2014 planning to sell and buy low premium bars. Did some pricing and turns out most have appreciated nicely, making me reconsider the low premium option!
    2014 wedge-tailed Eagles, SBSS warbirds, Lunars etc.

    After a few years tucked away the SBSS rounds are the only ones with any toning, even in capsules.
     

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