Stay in: Long the GBP/USD and EUR/USD although I only see limited upside potential and buy call options on the FTSE 100 Get Out: Short the GBP/USD and EUR/USD and buy puts on the FTSE 100 X Factor: Even if Brexit wins, UK parliament needs to vote on it. Would only take about 30 tories to deny the people what they voted for in which case going long on protesting, rioting and looting
Occam's razor says they stay in. so do the bookies. http://sports.ladbrokes.com/sports-central/uk-eu-referendum/ 28% chance leave. 72% chance remain. It would take the kind of dance that got corbyn elected for it to happen. Half of middle England relatives live in France or Spain and the Scots, Welsh and North Irish will vote stay. Political rioting in the UK never gets looting middle England does not loot and chavs could not give much of a toss either way as long as binge drinking is legal. I'd say sterling's a buy if you wanted a quick trade. There are set agendas in sections of the media/online world that make improbable events like Scottish independence, nuclear disarmament, brexit, etc. seem to have far more support than they actually do. Particularly online polls. Funny that. Still 28% is fairly high.
Do you think the PM spike is money going to the side lines to wait for the result? Makes sense. Bit of the old fear.
I don't think so. I'm not convinced how gold will react at least initially on the either a Brexit or a stay so I'm not trading it If they vote to stay, gold could rally based on a strengthening of the EUR and GDP against the USD which could push gold higher in USD terms. The opposite could happen if they vote to leave and gold could drop. Gold would have to positively correlate with the USD for it rise on a Brexit and I'm not convinced that would happen.
If UK stays in the EU after seeing what the Brussels dictatorship did to the EU with the refugees/migrants crisis/troubles, they dumb and deserves what they get.
I'm sure the British public appreciates your constructive criticism, they are not Jim Jones followers or Putin voters though and as an electorate far from dumb.
^ dumb people do dumb things. They got no excuse for letting it go this far. They got their own decades long track record of what trouble Islamic migrants caused in their own country. They saw first hand how they bludge on welfare, don't integrate and only divide their nation with no-go zones. Now they got a Muslim London Major by unanimous vote. London has truly fallen thanks to dumbness. Dumbo's let it go this far coz they listen to dumb leftists like you.
I see your xenophobic retardation doesn't restrict you from investing in a mining company chaired and founded by a muslim who's parents were migrants?
^ Nup! And that was the stock you said I missed the boat on and it is already up around 30% since I bought it 2 weeks ago
Just the post I was hoping to see and from CL himself. Since being on this forum I have understood more about forex then from any other source. I was going to ask if you where going to England for a holiday in a months time, would you wait till after any spike (or during) to covert AUD to GBP or go convert half the spending money now and half later? Even the f there was a spike I have no idea which direction?
If you believe that the UK will vote to stay, convert your AUD before the vote. If you believe the UK will vote to leave, convert your AUD after the vote. Give yourself as much time as you can prior to the vote to make an informed decision. I'm leaning towards the UK voting to stay based on what the market is pricing in and what the bookies are pricing, but that's not a given. Are you using something like Ozforex or Currency Fair to make the conversion as these companies will offer you better conversion rates than any bank will?
I get it you're naturally drawn to bigotry. What you know about European or global history could be scribbled on a postage stamp but you are so gullible and easily lead that you will swallow down any trite simplistic b*llix. Did it ever occur to you to actually go and get some education or do you think learning is a conspiracy as well. What makes you think I'm 'a leftist'? Do you even know what that means, or is it just something you saw someone say once that made an impression on you. Give me an overview of the key major political philosophers that define your worldview and a history of European migrations and religion since 3000 BC in your own words. Please. Entertain me. You won't because you can't. Here's a quick starter, London has a hundreds of years been composed of masses of immigrants and social divides. There has never been a time in history when there was not sectarianism, tribalism and segregation there. It is a sh*thole. The only time Londoners were ever decent to each other was when Hitler bombed them. What do you want to do, find Boadiceas corpse, reanimate it and try and develop a homogenous London from scratch? What the hell do you know about the history of Britain? I note that the youtube video you link to on the London Mayor (who was born in London and freely elected) features heavily on playlists of holocaust deniers, Russian propaganda channels and far right extremists. Are you stupid enough to really believe that these people are beacons of truth? I don't agree with the mans politics but its called democracy. What's your preferred alternative- some git in a uniform deciding who's racially and ideologically pure by flipping a coin? Sure they may be a debate to be had about economic immigration between reasonable people but that can never happen while the moronic xenophobic bile you love is pouring forth from you and a bunch of similarly backward morons repeating crude Russian propaganda designed to appear to bed wetters who were too lazy to get an education and secretly daydream of some second hand worn out nationalist sectarian fascism because they are too thick to envision what that entails. For someone born in Australia your English language skills are almost marginal yet there you are complaining about immigration and failure to integrate (like segregating yourself in a cult?).It's incredible to me to envision you ever actually went to a school. It boggles the mind anyone employs you, I don't even fully understand how you can manage to clothe and feed yourself....that is genuinely how you come across. The UFO cult sh*te was perhaps semi-toxic gullibility (although I no longer believe that) but this incessant mindless far right sh*t about immigration......and the bizarre survivalist fantasy you have of being a lone survivor shooting trespassers. You need help. Please let me know you are in fact the Russian propaganda archetype personality titled 'ass' because at least then you will make as much sense as the drone putinbots, low brow little Englanders and descendants of German war criminals.
Hadn't thought about who to covert with. If I'm overseas with AUD I just go to the best price currency converter I find that day. Same thing I guess when I'm here (pre holiday), but I find better rates when I'm overseas with the cash. This is not for investment play, this is best bang for my buck for my holiday. I'll look into the sites you have mentioned to see if it works for me though. Thanks for the reply.
You have leftists views but maybe don't know it coz your skitzo and all over the place. I said several times elsewhere that some multicultural immigration is fine as long they integrate but too much immigration of a type that don't integrate but divide the nation and cause nothing but trouble is wrong. Brittan should have stopped all Islamic immigration over a decade ago when it saw this was happening but they didn't. Now critical mass of them is reached and too late. I posted this video in my Welcome to Europe. It shows the statistics of what an increasing Muslim population has on a society. It's at the 4:05 mark. The statistics of those countries do not lie. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hueHtOM5dTY[/youtube]
Oldsoul does not realize he is a leftist because leftists are constantly trying to redefine where the centre is. The left are trying to redefine everything and normalize the abnormal. They simply can't understand that the majority define the world differently and do not accept their attempted forced and unwanted changes. They are in for a big shock when the silent majority decide they have had enough and that day is rapidly approaching, especially in Europe. The picture is much clearer when standing a little to the right of the true centre, I find.
^ Yep, I agree. I posted this video a while ago in my Welcome to Europe thread. Sums up Oldsoul. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2_DTlRaVzM[/youtube]
