Advice on Proofs

Discussion in 'Numismatics' started by rjimlad, Sep 21, 2015.

  1. rjimlad

    rjimlad Member

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    I need some advice on relative values.

    So a 2011 10 cent piece is rare because only 1.7million were minted. But there were 40000 mint sets made and these are not rare compared to other mint sets. There were also 27000 baby proofs sets for the same year so my question relates to the relative rarities. Is a 2011 proof 10 cent as rare as a circulating 10c in relative terms? Is a circulating coin rarer than a proof for this year? Or are all 2011 10 cent pieces rare because of the total number?

    Or is this a stupid question?
     
  2. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

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    I would not call 1.7 million of anything RARE
     
  3. rjimlad

    rjimlad Member

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    OK, let's take out the R word. And for that matter, Scarce.

    How about we just pretend the figures are irrelevant and look at the problem. I'll make it easier:

    circulation of coinX <<<< every other year
    circulation of proofX = every other year

    does proofX derive the same scarcity that coin x obtains due to its much smaller circulation OR

    is proof X scarce because coinX + proofX <<<<<<<total circulation of previous and later years.

    Thus, I can easily buy a 2011 mint set with he 10c coin. No different from any other year and actually more than many other years.
    But finding a 2011 in circulation is far less likely.

    BTW:

    1997: 5.7 million, RAM
    1998: 48 million, RAM
    1999: 97.1 million, RAM
    2000: 51.1 million, RAM
    2001: 109.4 million, RAM
    2002: 70.3 million, RAM
    2003: 53.6 million, RAM
    2004: 89.1 million, RAM
    2005: 116.7 million, RAM
    2006: 157.1 million, RAM
    2007: 61.1 million, RAM
    2008: 136.0 million, RAM
    2009: 25.3 million, RAM
    2010: 84.9 million, RAM
    2011: 1.7 million, RAM
    2012: 54.0 million, RAM
    2013: 49.2 million, RAM

    Let's say there's a 5% annual attrition of circulating coins based on a ridiculously brief US report on this I read and can't verify, after 20 years you've only got about 600k of this coin in circulation. I'm not sure if that will make it scarce or rare in 2031 but there won't be many of them. I'm not interested in cornering the 10c coin market or hoping to make a fortune from this coin or that. I am interested SOLELY in the issue I have outlined concerning circa versus proof rarity. Forget the coin itself.
     
  4. PT Cruiser

    PT Cruiser Active Member Silver Stacker

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    My guess would be one does not effect the other. Those that collect the proof version of something are probably not too concerned by the non-proof version, so mintages of it would be sort of irrelevant. That's my logic anyway!
     

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