I read from another thread about the problems associated when flippers get in on the fun and join in. What are some examples of when too many people come in and cannabalize each other in the market, where flippers lost? What are some examples of winners? I think the Gods of Olympus and Goddesses get helped by flippers right? As people buy, flippers buy and hoard until later times, which takes it out of the market. Once the flood subsides and all coins are out in the open then the market will re-balance itself with flippers still in the mix who are holding on to potential winners. Personally, I buy as an investment and investment must be sold to realize gains or losses. Some I sell fast, others I hold to sell. Granted time frame is what would separate the two. The flipper can drive prices higher, which is a good thing to collectors right? Otherwise, if you don't sell, then you are a collector, until you decide to sell and buy something else, which would then make you a seller. Just kinda curious what the though was on flipping here. Is it bad, good, both, or does it depend?
There is a distinction between a mass produced coin that is hyped then flipped and a very low mintage coin that is flipped. There was no shortage of 2012 1 oz BU silver Lunar Dragons but the hype was surely at an extreme level. That extreme hype drove prices way up for a period of time. That spike in price really had little to nothing to do with supply and demand dynamics in my view. One of the points that was being made in the other thread is that if many flippers are selling the same coin(s) at the same time on the premiere after market coin site in the world, eBay, then possibly (not necessarily always) each will compete with the other to get the sale by dropping the price a little lower than everyone else. If this is repeated by many flippers, then the effect is a potential drive down of the price. But it all depends on how much hype there is in the various channels where potential buyers tune into (like forums such as this and a vast array of other places) and what is the ratio of coins available to buyers, which of course is the most fundamental pricing mechanism known as supply vs demand. In the case of the 2015 LunarSkulls Goat proof coin, the mintage was very low compated to the BU Dragons for example and the demand clearly outstripped the available coins available for immediate purchase....which drove prices over $300 per 1 oz coin in some cases I believe (someone correct me if I'm wrong on that figure). There was a lot less hype for the LunarSkulls than the Dragon in my opinion but other factors drove prices high on the LunarSkulls for a while. If the LunarSkulls had the same mintage as the 1 oz Dragons (300,000), I believe prices would not have gone anywhere near where they did because virtually no other mint in the world has developed as widespread and deep a network of promotion as the Perth Mint, and ergo the LunarSkulls would not have benefited in the same way (extreme hype through a vast network of channels) as the Dragons did. .
To be honest, Silverpv, you shouldn't spend too much time trying to logically work out investment in collector coins. Quite often logic doesn't apply. Yes, you are absolutely correct with all the points you made. Plus i would add that it's a delicate and risky balancing act for dealers and flippers - drive the price too far too fast and the scales could tip the opposite way, turn collectors away from buying altogether. I would even add that sometimes when all the signals seem to point to a surefire hit coin, when the dust settles it turns out to be an illusion created by those with the most to gain - dealers and flippers. Who will have cashed out long before you. And never underestimate their talent to hype, and whip up the initial buzz. So do you sell in the first months for a modest profit? What? When this could be "the one"?! Or, ok, wait longer for that possible BIG payoff......... but..... "hit" status may not actually be there and you break even hopefully (after 14% is sliced off the top by ebay and paypal). Collectors are also not (constantly) as dumb as dealers or flippers would hope. We learn fast. A collector will live by the "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me". If you are serious when you say you buy as investment only, i advise you steer clear of collector coins. For every genuine hot one, there will be two dozen others at least which will be a mix of modest returns, break even, and flop. Trying to predict which and trying to filter out all the BS as well, while a lot of fun at first, can have varying and surprising results, including turning your hair gray. And with the substantial premiums applied at source, per coin, it can quickly become a game of roulette instead of a real investment. A collector doesn't have this headache. Most of the time a true collector follows his heart, buys what he likes, not what he's lead to believe will be worth something. With one important caveat..... not at any price, either. You say you buy just to invest. Silver spot at 6 year low. Gold/silver ratio in the mid 70's. So buy bullion. You still want to dabble in the collector side, buy some semi-numi bullion as well.
Thanks for the insight gentlemen... Sully, Bullion/semi-bullion is by far what i've been mostly stashing, but I use these releases to build the core stack and lower my cost basis per oz. Buying and selling has allowed me to multiply the stack faster than straight accumulation. From my research, Bullion has not really been profitable but I don't think it hurts to hold. Ebay fees can be cut in half to 6.9% ebay & paypal if you have a plan to get there. Also, more savvy buyers are aware to "contact" you can cut out fee's. Not to mention other secondary markets, that use ppff or other methods of payment. Just wondering what the thoughts were on this stuff. I see a lot of implications but nothing too distinct. I understand not all of them are going to be hits. Just wondering what the perception was of those that turn a profit and their affect on the market. Collection pieces are more difficult to select and sell as the value is subjective as mmm..shiney says and I completely agree. Being new to the market, I'm staying away from but studying nice St Gaudens pieces. I didn't know the dragons used to go for $300/oz. That's pretty high and a good use case. I appreciate the knowledge and opinions you guys share, very helpful to listen to different perspectives. Cheers,
Once the dust settles flippers are forced to constantly over hype a piece of silver or silver coin,this continuing hype relies on new customers to the stacking /collecting comunity to give them the profits they desire. Once a new stacker/collector has fully entered the game they realize the hype in a short period and move onto buying pm,s in a more cost effective manner apart from a few higher purchases to complete what is started or for pure novelty factor. Its quite amusing to witness over hype and scramble cause flipper to flipper sales even on ss the amount who purchase in the trade section for more than a bullion dealer charges is unbelievable at times!
Not the Dragons, a few of the LunarSkulls did though if I recall correctly. Even though Dragons were way over valued at one point, they never came close to $300 for a 1 oz silver BU Dragon that I'd ever heard or seen. LunarSkulls is a very different product than the 1 oz BU Dragons....that's why they fetched considerably more than the Dragons ever did or probably ever will. .
Im a bit confused as to what's a flippabble coin surely mintage would decide value. Iv git 15 iff the 2014 koalas with the Chinese privy mark and the final mintage off those was really low so i thought i had something desirable yet iv seen none for sale anywhere so have no idea what value they might have, normally i buy generic stuff o i can at least have an idea of what i could get if i have to pull out of scene
If one wants to flip/sell coins for a profit one first has to acquire the knowledge about the market in which you wish to participate. Using that knowledge you will also need somewhat of a gut feel for what will and won't take off and be highly desired. You need to accept the fact that you will be wrong and not buy coins that take off and you will buy lemons that don't. I did not buy Zeus from Perth Mint when I could have had 50 of them or more, I passed on the lunar skull series, I sold too soon on the Southern Sky curved coin from the RAM (In fact, I even had trouble selling them). Hindsight is always crystal clear but at the moment the decision has to be made it is not always so obvious. You will lose money on some coins. If you cannot stomach that then flipping is not for you. With that said once you get a feel for things there is a great deal of profit to be realized. I built my entire stack from proceeds realized from my buying and selling. I will leave you with a couple of quotes to consider that may help guide your decisions. "I made my fortune by selling too early" - Baron Rothschild "The money is made on the buy" - mtforpar
Good way to put it. Not all bets will bear some fruit and some might not work out. If you trade stocks, then the rollercoaster is the same, just a different track ( win some, lose some, hopefully we win more! ). Bummer on the Zeus's, but if your stack is already from profit, you're already ahead. Or buying after the Elvis has left the building!
Low mintage alone is not a guarantee of appreciating value. Couple low mintage with strong sentiment in favor of a coin/medal/round and that will be a profit maker. But it's easy to get it wrong so if you miss out on some money winners at times and are stuck with some money losers at other times then you are pretty much where everyone else, except an elite few, is. If you break even, then at least you didn't lose money. It is good, of course, to pick some winners but the timing of when to sell is an important ingredient of what becomes a winner for you. I believe the new Odin 3 oz "Mega" high relief silver coin will make a number of people profits. Just a gut feeling. I purchased one on pre-sale and I may actually end up holding it for some years then sell rather than immediately flipping it since it is the first coin of a new series. Or I may just keep it as part of my small coin collection. I will decide when the time is right. . .
I bought a handful of those too. I'll probabaly flip an odin and then keep the others until I get a set. I really like the look of this first coin from this mint. I hope the others are as good if not better... And I agree low mintage doesn't really mean much unless there's an audience for it.
Here's another factor.. What coins & other pieces are released soon afterwards. As a group, we've got a short attention span. Always after the next new shiny thing..
I'm sorry, what did you say? I was too busy trying to find any possible sales on 2017 silver coins. .
I'm sure there will be lots of flippers for the Odin. Will take some time to absorb the supply. 1500 medals at 300, 400, 500 isn't easy to move. I think it will take years for that many to be soaked up by strong hands. Unless of course the other three continue to get perfected. I too think the Odin will be big hit. It's the first of its kind out side of the Chinese market, yes? I don't know of any other mint which has done a 'max' high relief, and with 3 oz and it is legal tender. I think this has the potential to be really big. I can't wait to see it up close and personal.
I don't know if anyone else mentioned this (probably someone has) but what direction spot is moving could have a small impact on the Odin coin sales as well. The coin has plenty going for it, no doubt, and it's those features that are the main reason this coin could sell out before it even is officially released. This coin would have been sold out in minutes would it have been promoted by the Perth Mint....there's no doubt in my mind about that. That's not a rub on the PM, but rather a hat's off and acknowledgement to the fact that in the eyes of many or most modern coin collectors, the PM is the most well known mint on the planet....that doesn't happen by accident. And the PM uses this popularity as any good business would...to promote their products, whether some of those products are better than or pale in comparison to their competitors' products. .
Very good point. I would buy more, but I have to save some for the coins and chronicles this week. Yet another one, is it a winner or a loser. The margins won't be as high for sure, but the popularity is there. A case where a higher mintage affects lowers secondary market price but popularity could keep it up. as long as we can survive the schmitah!!!
