Surely this is just the 10% odd correction all the guru's had told us we needed for the markets to find equilibrium? Is this not just a chance for those that missed out to buy in at discounted prices? LOL, not me anyway.
It is so very disheartening that every time metals drop so do our AUD/NZD so we have a net gain of ................................sweet FA. Unless you are in the states and well off the average US citizen and every citizen of other nations are getting screwed. Now i have been using way more pseudo profanity of late because i am getting very very upset with the way this system works. We have made money out of the system through i'd have to say DUMB LUCK on my part yet people i respect that feel they have a grasp of things have been bitten hard. I am not just talking about the last couple of weeks , but the last 6 years. I am disgusted.
Promise I will take all of the gold and silver away for free! I can take truckloads and won't charge you a cent!!
Silver down at first, gold up as stocks go south, when it starts to have a big effect on the credit market and currencies then they both go up.
Batten down the hatch and hold tight, think this is a larger storm coming Pm's are a long term position in my thinking Any significant drops will be brought all the way down
I agree with this, as I'm sure most on these forums do. A long term hold is the name of the game and ultimate winning position, the current state of affairs can't last. that is obvious to everyone willing to look beyond the surface, fortunately for us most people are not willing to do this.
I nearly called to place another order of ASE this evening. I have been waiting for a spot of $13 USD to jump in, but I was thinking I might miss out. Then I got to thinking that it looks like the FED will raise rates soon and QE will not be tried again in the same manner, if at all. Lets not argue about whether or not this will happen, lets just pretend it will be this way. How much of the previous run up in PM's was the cause of excess money due to QE? I'm worried that without this extra liquidity (QE) in the market, PM's might drop and stay flat this time. I would like some input from more qualified persons than my own wee pea brain. Am I overthinking it?
When speculating, we really do have to consider the currencies too for those of us outside of the U.S. The AUD is more likely to go down rather than up or stay flat. If the U.S. raises rates (more likely next year now?) then the Aussie dollar will plummet, offsetting any drops in the silver spot price.
One thing to consider and this won't be just the RBA, is that central banks around the world will sell their foreign reserves to prop up their own currencies if they fall too far against the USD. This may prop up other currencies for a while until they exhaust their foreign reserves, their currency continues to fall, inflation rises on the back of the cost of imports outstripping the countries exports and exchange rates with the USD. If the AUD hits the mid 60s and doesn't look like it's going to recover anytime soon after, I would guess this would be the point the RBA may start selling its reserves. Another thing to speculatively consider is that Australia is the 2nd largest gold producing country in the world. Whilst gold exports alone are not enough to prop up the AUD, if gold were to see a big rally, it may slow down the rate in which the AUD falls against the USD and other currencies due to the demand in gold.
With the share markets out of favour and Australia at least for now still having a AAA credit rating, there will be plenty of buyers for Australian bonds in any upcoming auctions. Whilst M&A activity may have slowed somewhat, I still believe there is more to come the longer the commodity bear market is drawn out and credit slowly dries up. These domestic reasons for short-term AUD support are grasping at straws. If China continues to spazz out and reports poor macro data and depending what the Fed does will have a much more pivotal and immediate impact on the AUD.
I put forward the theory 6 months ago that I learned in the mining industry. The theory is that commodities reflect the economy but lag its changes by about 2 years. If that is so then commodities are in for more hard times.
Can you explain the theory please? Also, how does it relate to the boom in commodities around 2010 and 2011 when the economy was doing awful (more awful than recently)? Not being argumentative, actually interested
The AUD and the metals move hand in hand, roughly. When silver and gold hits its low, the AUD will not be strong. That's why my plan is to buy domestic Gold/Silver miners.
