Wow. That was all a very intelligent discourse. I can see standards have dropped a little around here lately. That wasn't even a pretence at civil uncivilty.
An endless line of heads with tin foil hats on disappearing up their own arses in an infinite spiral. Too much truth like that and the internet will break. Still think there are credible odds of Greece being so badly governed it may spiral into a few years of full blown lunacy outside the Euro. The pond ripples would be interesting. I'd bet it would rejoin within five years anyway though. The IMF walkout is more than a tactic. I think they have had enough. The EU will probably continue looking for a method to can kick and mediate with the IMF anyway to get that result. Nonetheless it certainly ups the odds.
Why are alien visitors always sticking things up asses and throwing probe parties for innocent insane Swiss UFO time traveller plastic ray gun dinosaur photographing eugenicist apocalyptic cultists anyway? I blame internet porn. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPg35axm6NI[/youtube]
The decision may well have already been made and as already stated is nothing but window dressing looking at the best timing. I think Greece is done even if they do manage a last minute hail mary before the end of the month. They could still adopt something like the USD in the interim of being kicked out of the Euro while they go about negotiating new trade deals and its debt obligations with its creditors before introducing a new drachma. It would be a controlled exit in the interests of both Greece and the Eurozone.
See below. They leave and two to five years later they will be back in the Euro like Johnny in the shining. History repeating. Latin Monetary Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_Monetary_Union "Following the International Monetary Conference of 1867, the original four nations were joined by Greece on April 10, 1867.[5] Greece took advantage of a clause in the treaty that guaranteed admission of foreign states that agreed to abide by the treaty. Spain and Romania also considered joining. The discussions broke off unsuccessfully, but both countries nevertheless made an attempt to conform their currencies to the LMU standard.[5] Austria-Hungary refused to join the LMU because it rejected bimetallism, but signed a separate monetary treaty with France on December 24, 1867 whereby both states agreed to receive into their treasuries one another's gold coins at specified rates.[6] Austria-Hungary thereafter minted some but not all of its gold coins on the LMU standard, including the 8 florin, which matched the specifications of the French 20 francs." ....... "According to Financial Times, another major problem of the LMU was that it failed to outlaw the printing of paper money based on the bimetallic currency. A weakness which was exploited by France and Italy that printed banknotes to fund their own endeavours, effectively "forcing other members of the union to bear some of the cost of its fiscal extravagance by issuing notes backed by their currency".[18] Greece also caused problems. According to the BBC, "its chronically weak economy meant successive Greek governments responded by decreasing the amount of gold in their coins,[19] thereby debasing their currency in relation to those of other nations in the union and in violation of the original agreement". Greece was formally expelled from the Latin Monetary Union in 1908. It was readmitted in 1910, however.[20]"
I don't know. Once they are out and if/when they manage to find their feet again, I don't know how much appetite the Greeks will have to go back for more of the same.
I tend to look at geopolitics via history. It is all we have to go on. Did you know that battles get fought in the same places at the same time of year over and over again, irrespective of changes in civilisations and thousands of years....when you have such a clear example of previous attempts at monetary union in the Latin currency union its certainly worth looking at how it played out for the participants. Greece certainly has played out the historical role in the LCU nearly blow for blow so far with the Euro. It will be fear of Turkey that returns the 'lost sheep' then not love of France or Germany. So says the history book. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bE_1tCasi_Q[/youtube]
On a very broad sense, I find it interesting that Northern Europe is Protestent, Southern Europe is Catholic, whilst that thin sliver of Eastern Europe heading up to Russia is Orthodox. This I believe will ultimately define Europe, with the bail-out for Greece coming from Russia. The conundrum for the West is that Greece, a NATO and European country will have strong ties with the old foe.
Indeed but I'd say Catholic and Protestants are in equal disbursement in Northern Europe with the majority secular. However Russia simply can't. It has a miniscule economy compared to the ECB and IMF. Clearing Greece would actually wipe out Russia current foreign reserves entirely equally so would recapitalising it after an exit. Greece also fought a bitter civil war after Stalin tried to take it over and while co-religionists the Greeks are aware that the Russian Orthodox hierarchy was hijacked by the kgb/fsb a while back. Greeks are as wary as Russia as they are of Germany. Both have tried to colonise them. Greece could no longer remain in the EU free trade zone if it became a full Russian satellite. It would be an economic, social and political apocalypse for Greece placing it in the position of a front line state facing a NATO backed Turkey. Still as per prediction from history maybe that is what would send Greece running back to the Eurozone.
Look at this^^^^ Guys telling others to stick things where they do not shine. LOVE IT^^. Now i floated around a few forums before landing at the best silver and gold site on the web SILVER STACKERS. Any other site i signed upto would have booted me off for using these sorts of terms. Yet here we have the above and no-one has died, no-one has had any adverse medical reactions and the world keeps spinning. The moderators here at SS are doing a stellar job of letting the conversation flow. I like that we can express ourselves with the odd obscenity and not be removed.
It would be cool if they could moderate themselves and not spam, it is annoying when you're trying to read everything and they're taking up space insulting each other.
Well it has value, so yes? I was talking about space on the page between interesting comments though haha.
That's definitely possible, they're going to burn a lot of bridges with the euro zone if they have had a plan to grexit the hell out of there all this time and Brussels finds out they've just been strung along to get a few months continuance payments out of it to give them time to set things up. In fact I heard Tsipras day that they were looking for a few months worth of aid to keep things in an even keel so they can work out a state of affairs that Greeks can live with, though the implication there was that they meant more time to get a deal together with the IMF, not some third option. The thing is that the current government is still very popular, I've heard people say that the IMF/EU are hoping people will fear the economic problems that come with default that they will throw them out. In fact though people are demonstrating in the streets against austerity, which I'd essentially marching for the government position. Also, it's been toured that many in their party wouldn't vote to accept too much austerity so even if they agree to a deal in negotiations it might not make it through parliament and a failure in negotiations or a default probably won't bring a change in government or a change in the Greek position. As recently as yesterday I assumed they would have to make a deal and that this was all a bunch of noise indicating nothing. Now, looking at the domestic politics involved, I'm not so sure. I'm not saying they will default, but looking at it from the outside in they certainly could and there wouldn't be an immediate change of heart if and when it happens.
With the Greek unemployment rate currently 26% I think there would be very little support for continuing austerity programs.
