Over the past several months, according to many Experts, the price of gold was supposed to have fallen to around a grand by now and be heading lower due to a predicted US interest rate rise in June. Due to this, and a few more factors, I reckon gold is looking good.
After consulting the magic 8 ball, I'm going to say at best it will kiss the $1300 mark without breaking through it convincingly before falling back down again.
I can see gold being pulled down if US shares sell off big time, but not for long. Bond, Bank and Currency crises are all potential kickstarters for moves upwards as well as ongoing armed conflicts. Risk aversion makes for higher gold.
It should fall again to a new low this year before rising to finish the year at 1300-1375. If it does not something is wrong.....my marker for the may high would be 1230. Seasonality. All normal . No too the moon, no price collapse either. All price prediction is gonad rubbing....no one can read the future. Source:
Yes, gold seems really good and i think one could go for yellow metal, because its's better to get it at low and then sell when it gets high
The only real (read: permanent) game changer is other prices. If a donut stays the same, If a car stays the same, If a house stays the same, If your aunt gives the same pocket money, Then why would golds price rise? This is silver and gold 2000+ in USD year silver gold ratio 2000 4.9506 279.11 56.38 2001 4.3702 271.04 62.02 2002 4.5995 309.73 67.34 2003 4.8758 363.38 74.53 2004 6.6711 409.72 61.42 2005 7.3164 444.74 60.79 2006 11.5452 603.46 52.27 2007 13.3836 695.39 51.96 2008 14.9891 871.96 58.17 2009 14.6733 972.35 66.27 2010 20.1928 1224.53 60.64 2011 35.1192 1571.52 44.75 2012 31.1497 1668.98 53.58 2013 23.7928 1411.23 59.31 2014 20.3715 1294.64 63.55 Golds 2015 average is at the moment $1212. That's about 2010's average, yet still over 4 times the 2000 price. Without other prices rising and intrest rate on bank deposits lagging behind, so that bank savers lose, I don't see much reason to buy gold at such prices. And apparently, alot don't, where would golds price have been now, if central banks hadn't bought so much tonnes in recent years? If they hadn't played willing counterparty, the gold/silver ratio wouldn't have increased, rather the opposite. year / tonnes bought (- = sold) / average price 2005 -663 $444.74 2006 -365 $603.46 2007 -484 $695.39 2008 -235 $871.96 2009 -34 $972.35 2010 77 $1224.53 2011 455 $1571.52 2012 544.1 $1668.98 2013 625.5 $1411.23 2014 588.0 $1211.71 If you wanna know where golds price will be this summer, ask central banks, they have something to say 'bout it.
Of course not. It's not even needed. If you know the rest of the town bought enough shoes for 20 years then you know a shoesalesman will have a hard time that period, and may have to find something else to do. The future, gives some glimpses in the past and the present. Without rubbing.
But clearly that logic no longer applies in these crazy markets. How do you determine 20 years supply? Maybe all the women in the town want 100 pairs of shoes each year, so it's only 1 year supply. -Just like how in Australia we have built WAY more houses then "needed" but now everyone wants 3 houses each. -Just like how every Apple fan has an iphone, but they keep buying new iphones even though it's more or less the same thing. -China... well that will be a big list of things they keep buying even though they have an over supply of. -And then there is the general world, where we have more crap then we can even imagine what to do with, yet we keep buying more and more. Pirocco, you got to stop thinking everything in the world works how it's writes in a theory book. I'm guessing you are still very young, but in time you will learn.
Potential? Bank already kickstarted moves upwards. It's already "in the price". Year / tonnes sold (-=bought) / avg price of Year 1997 326 $330.98 <- SELL 1998 363 $294.24 <- SELL 1999 477 $278.88 <- SELL 2000 479 $279.11 <- SELL 2001 520 $271.04 <- SELL 2002 547 $309.73 <- SELL 2003 620 $363.38 <- SELL 2004 479 $409.72 <- SELL 2005 663 $444.74 <- SELL 2006 365 $603.46 <- SELL 2007 484 $695.39 <- SELL 2008 235 $871.96 <- SELL 2009 34 $972.35 <- SELL 2010 -77 $1224.53 <- BUY 2011 -455 $1571.52 <- BUY 2012 -544.1 $1668.98 <- BUY 2013 -625.5 $1411.23 <- BUY 2014 -588.0 $1211.71 <- BUY Ladies And Gentlemen, We Are Looking At The Past! Gold will be dumped down to $900, with $1000 not slipping but passing like a bird before the kitchen window.
Simply by summing up 20 years past supply/demand. And the more people buy stuff that they don't use, the more that will repopup for sale, including the women shoes. Just look in secondhand shops. For every man shoe pair there are 10 pairs of women shoes. Yet they all get sold, albeit at a much lower price than they were originally bought at. And every existing pair bought there, won't be bought new. And some other logic: in the world, there is no "we buy" at the same price. One paid X, another paid Y. Just like the original buy and later on resell price of that secondhand pair of shoes. So, it's just impossible that your women wanting 100 pairs of shoes attitude each year will go on into eternity. They won't destroy them to waste. They will resell them. They are not *that* crazy. A market is a situation, and if a crazy person pops up the scene then another will take advantage of his crazyness.
It will be abit like a repeat of 2013, some price verticals down shortly after some big hedge fund managers told everybody it's a must to own gold, with later on market data suckering through, indicating that they sold halve their position during their telling everybody - tales. Gold ETF's piled up 2635 tonnes from 2002 (3 tonnes) to 2012 (279.1 tonnes). Central banks piled up 2290 tonnes from 2010 (77 tonnes) to 2014 (588 tonnes). Gold ETF's dumped 1039 tonnes from 2013 (916 tonnes) to 2014 (184 tonnes). So gold ETF's have 1596 tonnes left to dump. Central banks didn't even sell any from it so far. Yet, still talk about gold slipups in the flower bees and sunshine period of the year.
But "We" should stay positive about the Yellow Metal, that's good for the Morale! ...and the sales figures.
