Marc Faber said he would buy when gold is 50% down from peak. 1085 is actually the 50% fibonaci retracement from peak to trough.
Retested 1200 support last night.. support was strong.. What makes you think 1200 support will not hold up in the future.. all central banks continue to inflate M3 supply and continuation of easing and additional debt obligiations all round.. gold will only rise vs fiat.. everything always deflates vs gold in the long run. Gold can only move one way unless the bankers get responsible in which case it can only go sideways or up.. reducing debt and increasing interest rates may decrease the value of gold relative to fiat.. do you really think that can happen.. USA needs to keep interest rates close to negative to not default.. parameters are closing on the fed like luke, han, leia and chewy in the garbage disposal unit on the death star.. good luck with that... no R2 unit to get them out of this tight jam! 1for1
US dollar index has been strong; there is no sign of trend change so far. That's why I believe gold price only has one direction, which is DOWN.
1200 ->1150 (March interim seasonal low) -> 1220 -1230 ->1100 (June seasonal low, brief as a lot of drawing lines on charts people have convinced themselves this is a magic number) - 1200 (Sept/July Aug), October (1275 start of seasonal bull for gold), Nov (1300), Dec/Jan(1350-1375 seasonal high) And price prediction is just magic eight balling via gonad rubbing. E.g. one little war in the right place changes everything. Full disclosure I just bought some silver and gold for less than spot again. If you are sitting waiting for a magic spot price on gold before you buy - you are doing it wrong.
With REPATRIATION race on the way..... imagine how many other countries are shipping and buying gold right now and we don't know about it..... Only talking about PHYSICAL gold here not PAPER RUBBISH..... I believe we could go lower on a dump of paper but inevitably, the next recession will come and it will dwarf the last one IMHO. I believe that the rush for precious metals will be much greater than 2011... so price is no object here..... buy it and look away.... Have a great weekend all...
Golman Sachs is expecting gold to fall to around 1,175 $ during the second half of 2015 and there might be some rise next year: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-retains-position-as-safe-haven-for-2015.html http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/01/27/precious-poll-gold-idINKBN0L01QK20150127 This is the best collection of predictions for this year - comparisons of various forecasts, by the LBMA: http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Forecast 2015_FINAL LINKED.pdf I think gold could play between 1,050 $ - 1,300 $. The way thinks are going, I expect a gold price low between 1,050 - 1,100 this year. Prolly May-June. But I strongly believe 2016 could be bullish. Mainly because the US interest rates might rise next year. The biggest thing I'm chewing on is timing: when will gold find its bottom this year? Prolly April-May-June... As opposed to Goldman Sachs, I think it's going to be more bearish during the first half of the year.
Dec/Jan and Oct was actually pretty decent. If Gold happens to bucks seasonal trends and stays flat instead of falling in March/June futures it is a positive indicator for the year.....the second half of the year looks positive - unless you think the fed are actually going to raise interest rates. Speaking of which anyone remember what happened in 1999 when rates were raised to constrain irrational exuberance? "Since the Depression, there were strict underwriting guidelines that Wall Street adhered to when taking a company public," says one prominent hedge-fund manager. "The company had to be in business for a minimum of five years, and it had to show profitability for three consecutive years. But Wall Street took these guidelines and threw them in the trash." Goldman completed the snow job by pumping up the sham stocks: "Their analysts were out there saying Bullshit.com is worth $100 a share."" Great article on GS http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-great-american-bubble-machine-20100405?page=2
Gold is the dream of us all, like USD. Dollars and gold But not CZK. Gold goes down, USD goes up, CZK goes down But beer stays cheap
It's defended $1200 at the close about a dozen times now, that's a pretty strong bottom formation. If have to go back and look at the charts but I can think of about 5 days in the last week abs a bit where the price either dropped $10+ and threatened to break through $1200 or actually did for a moment but it's recovered every single time.
Don't be fooled by the technical analysis. Commercial Traders are sitting on mountains of short position against gold. However, buyers are hard to find at the moment; so the defending of $1,200 seems to be a bull-trap than anything else. I am afraid much lower spot price is ahead.
