Here's last years: http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Forecast_2014_Final_interact.pdf They got it pretty spot on, I really like that the collect a range of predictions all in one place. and they seem to be consistently accurate. Does anyone know when the annual release date is for this forecast? It would be useful in deciding what to do in 2015. Gold has performed well so far this month which historically it usually does. So I'm thinking would it be wise now, to sell to make a small profit and then buy when US raise interest rates? or will the price go higher in 2015? And the week AUD make sure buying gold remains costly? However The climate seems bad at the moment. Would love to know what some of the more experienced users of this forum think.
They got it spot on because they fix the prices, both officially and un-officially. Several banks on the board were sued last year for manipulation. They are also the same banks they pulled out of the committee because they got busted. "Deutsche Bank will withdraw from gold and silver benchmark price setting, it said on Friday, as European regulators investigate suspected manipulation of precious metals prices by banks." http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/17/deutsche-gold-fix-idUSL5N0KR19G20140117 Wait for the Shanghai exchange to reveal the true value.
Who knows. Funny they pull out after investigations start. Then LBMA roll out plans for a new price fixing model 6 months later. HSBC, Goldmans, Barclays involved as well.
Today, Switzerland's financial regulator (FINMA) found "serious misconduct" and a "clear attempt to manipulate precious metals benchmarks" by UBS employees in precious metals trading, particularly with silver. Swiss regulator FINMA said on Wednesday that it found a "clear attempt" to manipulate precious metals benchmarks during its investigation into precious metals and foreign exchange trading at UBS http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/12/us-banks-forex-settlement-gold-idUSKCN0IW12Q20141112 The spot price of gold tends to drop sharply around the London evening fixing (10 a.m. New York time). A similar, if less pronounced, drop in price occurs around the London morning fixing. The same daily declines can be seen in silver prices from 1998 through 2012. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2013-12-19/how-to-keep-banks-from-rigging-gold-prices It's not just metals but also forex derivatives as well. The big banks have long manipulated derivatives a $1,200 Trillion Dollar market. A Manhattan federal judge said on Thursday that investors may pursue a lawsuit accusing 12 major banks of violating antitrust law by fixing prices and restraining competition in the roughly $21 trillion market for credit default swaps. The defendants include Bank of America Corp, Barclays Plc, BNP Paribas SA, Citigroup Inc , Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG , Goldman Sachs Group Inc, HSBC Holdings Plc , JPMorgan Chase & Co, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and UBS AG. http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N0R51TS20140904?irpc=932
Yeah I've seen quite a lot of post about price manipulation on here. and I'm becoming more convinced. And I've thought it strange that gold tends to drop at certain times. Where can I find gold price indicators from the Shanghai exchange?
There's two types of manipulation theories. That of banks fixing prices in the range a few percent to advantage their trading desks over the short or mid term. The other is a long term price suppression by reverse vampires in league with the RAND corperation to eliminate the meal of dinner...I mean stop sliver hitting it's "real" value of $500 an ounce. One you should believe it's been proven to a reasonable and legal certainty. The other is at best very highly speculative, at worst an outright lie to further the goals of certain people and businesses who prosper when people think silver is a road to riches or the only way to protect your money when people are burning US $100 bills for warmth on the post apocalyptic wasteland that used to be New York. Manipulation of the sort Joey linked to is absolutely real. On topic I would be very curious to see the LBMA predictions. I would be interested in the way they come up with their calls (highly technical, fundamental, just a feeling based on years in the industry and the things they're seeing etc.).
A more accurate reason is that these large systemic and also gold bullion banks receive much more market and central planners data than others. And they know it first too. That's simply what a bank as such can. You know how much dollar savings you have at bank X. Bank X knows it too, and also knows it from any of its customers. By the time you get aware of something, they already acted upon it, degrading you to following them (and pay their ride). Manipulation is a word that says nothing. It's useless. A better way to "blame" them goes like this: http://www.finma.ch/e/aktuell/Pages/mm-ubs-devisenhandel-20141112.aspx "In the improper business conduct in foreign exchange and precious metals trading, electronic communication platforms played a key role. The abusive practices were evidenced in the information exchanged between traders in chat groups. FINMA examined thousands of suspicious chat group conversations between traders at multiple banks" http://www.finma.ch/d/aktuell/Documents/ubs-fx-bericht-20141112-d.pdf See, the money for nothing clubbers used chat groups to pass customers data and info as to frontrun them. The word "Manipulation" is a broad nothingsayer. Specific elements, say much more.
"Theories"? Why such a long post for what is just own traders using customers data to frontrun them? Much like how the money for nothing "traders" out here observe other people on the markets behaviour along price patterns in order to predict, and frontrun them, a more poor mans way than bank personell along insider data.
I blogged on these forecasts last year, I went back to 2007 and graphed their forecast against the actual yearly average to see how accurate they were as a group - they are pretty good. http://www.perthmintbullion.com/blo...The_LBMA_Precious_Metals_Forecast_Survey.aspx
I might cash out this weekend. It's having a hard time staying above $1290 only being protected by the falling dollar. Even with Wall St falling gold is having a hard time pushing further.
The falling dollar is real though and there are plenty of potential issues that could light a fire under gold. If the dollar hits RBA targets of $0.70 then it only has to hold $1100usd to stay close to $1600 and most forecasters are predicting gold will hold $1200 even if $1300 isn't likely without a precipitating event. If your going to sell your gold and buy US dollars or have some other investment strategy then that's one thing but if your just going to cash out and hold your aussie dollars in a low interest savings account I think you may as well be in gold. You might lose a few percent but probably not much more the way the dollars going and you have the chance to ride gravy train if things really turn around. I'm not holding too much gold but I would have to be pretty convinced if a drop to cash out now when things could do easily change and the downside appears to be limited.
those charts are making me nervous, gold down $50 US in days, only holding above $1600 AUD thanks to 77c dollar... might cash out today I'll see what my cereal tells me.
