Seems that silver in AU$ is now the highest it's been since 1st Sept. Well and truly on it's way to recovery it seems. Anyone still think it's going to collapse back down to AU$18 any time soon?
To be fair people were crying in their cereal in early September about how low the price was. I'm prone to getting over excited myself but losing a dollar in a day isn't exactly rare nowadays. If we hit $17.50/$1250 sliver and gold you might start to breathe. I'm still reading industry predictions of $1130 on gold as a mid term low, you an imagine what silver might be doing if gold sheds $120usd in a couple weeks.
Crying over the chance to pick up some Silver at low prices? I certainly wasn't! I hope the price stays low for a bit longer... I've some tubes of 2015 ASE's to be buying yet!
So would but I'm just saying we shouldn't be getting super excited about the dizzying price highs of September '14, a time for bears the equal of any "big & hairy men drink free" night at a gay club.
Figures show that it's not stackers or ETF shareholders that drive the price up. Instead, it's the futures markets bogus orders (nearly never ownership transfer of silver, just of dollars). These drove the price more up. And when they dump the positions again, that price part will once again vanish, minus or plus the cash markets extra purchases or sales it had hidden during the existence of the positions. I'll wait to stack further until then. At least I hit the bottoms on the 3 months term then. That last downspike to $14.2 was very quick / short, but as it looks like, plenty more time avail in a future, and also lower ($13.5). Remember the topic I made last year about the negativity guys? Those that chainsawed all day long about bad outlooks, until I thought lol if you don't see shiny futures just abandon the forum? Well, the price rose again after they bought back in and byebye was the negativity. And then back, and now again gone. Comes and goes with their vested interest situation of the moment! Some recent figures from IShares Silver Trust, the by far biggest silver ETF, whoms accumulation of silver during 2009,2010 and some less later, was a major reason for the now past multiyear bull market. Since 2012+ their stock fluctuates between 304 and 350 Moz, later between 315-350 Moz. 2014/12/01 350,158,280.00 $15.73 2014/12/02 347,427,315.10 $16.16 2014/12/04 345,223,919.70 $16.42 2014/12/11 342,350,201.70 $16.98 2014/12/12 341,009,164.10 $17.07 2014/12/17 338,997,763.10 $15.95 2014/12/19 338,135,759.30 $15.86 2014/12/23 332,293,606.30 $15.71 2014/12/24 330,569,731.90 $15.77 2014/12/30 329,564,166.70 $15.79 2015/01/07 328,457,815.00 $16.33 2015/01/09 327,979,086.00 $16.24 What did they do since start december? They're selling. There is a correlation between this SLV stock fluctuation over this range and the price. In higher price ranges they sell. In lower they buy. All the other shareholders (corresponding to some 300 Moz) just sit there dead since 2011. Still a force to reckon with, in case they'd move out too.
Look at a 5 year silver chart. Now, focus on the last 2 months. Sure, there is a 50 cent rise today but how can you look at that chart and conclude silver is "truly on it's way to recovery"?
Conspiracy thought: if prices continue to climb into this new year I will be convinced of massive manipulation of an almost alien-like intelligence level. People typically have less money to spend after the holidays, so who is driving the prices up? If we, the normal people, see the price of PMs shoot up at this time of year when we can already not afford to buy as much, it can only mean one thing: Armageddon. You know, the rapture and all that. Giant trumpet players in the sky and so forth.
Give me a full year of steadily climbing prices and I will confirm that the market is in recovery. One week of or even 1 month of higher prices doesn't mean that the market isn't still settling for consolidation. In hindsight, a large spike up in a consolidating market is known as a "bull trap." .
The rich people who didn't spend all of their money before the holidays, went on holiday for two weeks, and came back to work at their hedge fund, institution, ETF and went oh, look, prices have changed and Oil's taken a further dip. Lets divest some of these risky junk bonds that are probably going to default as shale oil producers go under in 2015, and take a punt on oil coming back up above multiyear lows by purchasing 2016 and 2017 commodity futures, plus some more energy stocks. Oh. We also need to put some of that cash into Pm's to ensure our institution remains compliant with Basel III rules, as we will be holding commodity futures that are more heavily regulated than the junk bonds we were holding previously. Let's hold the PM's til we see the interest rates start to move, then we can cash them out and put them into Tbills. Jolly good. Now do we have a table at Caviar Kingdom for that 12 seat lunch with the old boys? We need to discuss what we fix the price at tomorrow. I've got a deal that needs it to be below 15.
