American Eagle Gold Coin Sales on Track to Fall Nearly 40% for 2014

Discussion in 'Gold' started by House, Dec 30, 2014.

  1. House

    House Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  2. fltacoma

    fltacoma Member

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    I have to look and see what the mintage numbers are on the sizes. Might be some low mintage coins in there for slight numismatic purposes....
     
  3. dccpa

    dccpa Active Member

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    Be interested in your research results. Last year, before I sold my AGEs, I checked for premium variations. I didn't notice any premium difference that couldn't be accounted for by normal ebay bidding variances. US Dealers don't pay anything extra for particular years.
     
  4. No1joey

    No1joey Member Silver Stacker

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    Mmmm tells me most people buy high and sell low...
     
  5. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    The price is high when most ounces are bought and low when most ounces are sold.
    And people receive least ounces when high and least fiat when low.

    Price (annual average USD)
    2003 363.38
    2004 409.72
    2005 444.74
    2006 603.46
    2007 695.39
    2008 871.96
    2009 972.35
    2010 1224.5
    2011 1571.5 <- 2nd high year
    2012 1668.98 <- peak year
    2013 1411.23

    Tonnes in ETFs and similar:
    2003 39
    2004 133
    2005 208
    2006 260
    2007 253
    2008 321
    2009 617 <- peak purchase
    2010 367.7
    2011 154.0
    2012 279.1 <- peak price
    2013 -880 <- peak sale

    4 years later

    Tonnes in coins & bars:
    2003 292
    2004 339
    2005 386
    2006 401
    2007 432
    2008 862
    2009 743
    2010 995
    2011 1486.7 <- peak price
    2012 1347.3 (bar 1039.1 officialcoin 194.7 medals+imitationcoin 113.4)
    2013 1766.1 (bar 1379.1 officialcoin 283.3 medals+imitationcoin 103.8) <- peak purchase

    Some big gold ETF shareholders were the buy low > sell high side
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/paulson-cuts-spdr-gold-stake-53-as-soros-sells-out.html
    http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2013/08/15/gold-bull-paulson-cuts-spdr-stake-by-half-amid-bea

    Those gold coins & bars purchases were the buy high > sell low side.

    The latter paid the formers profit.
    Funny story:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/paulson-cuts-spdr-gold-stake-53-as-soros-sells-out.html
    Telling others to buy high so that he can sell high. :D
    No need to manipulate the price mechanism.
    Just frontrunning to then mislead.
     
  6. anighttrader

    anighttrader Member

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    There is a reason for this: the pain of loss is greater than the pleasure of gain.
     
  7. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    A reason is before what happens.
    Gain/loss is after what happened.
    How can a consequence be its reason?

    Loss is a result of a bad decision.
    A bad decision is a result of lazyness / carelessness / wrong-incomplete information.
    Since it's about peoples own money - and alot of it, an incentive for care, it's usually the latter.

    Gain is a result of a good decision.
    A good decision is a result of luck / accurate-complete information.
    Since people tend to not gamble with alot own money, it's usually the latter.

    John Paulson is an example of wrong information resulting in bad decisions.
    The sticker on his forehead said: "Billionaire hedge fund manager".
    As proven, he acted the opposite what he recommended others to do.
    That is:
    REASON.
    :D
     
  8. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

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    I think at least part of it would be the perceived relative value of silver. Do you want 1 gold eagle or 60+ASEs?
    Also, in this sort of market if your stacking eagles low premium is everything, I wouldn't be surprised if people were bargain hunting and trying to buy used. If course if there are used ones about to buy there can't be much of a shortfall in supply.

    I'd happily stack ASE if I could get them at a couple dollars over spot but there are plenty of more interesting coins/rounds I'd take over AGEs.
     
  9. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    +1
    Fundamental market psych. :)
     
  10. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    This is excellent news.
    The tide is slowing and preparing for the turn. Once gold is a dirty word, then all will be well.
     
  11. fltacoma

    fltacoma Member

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    The sales figures for Gold/platinum/silver are listed below:

    For gold:

    1 oz: 415,500
    1/2 oz: 46,000
    1/4 oz: 118,000
    1/10 oz: 565,000

    For a total of 1,144,500

    For platinum eagles:

    1 oz: 16,900

    For silver eagles:

    1 oz: 44,006,000

    I hope this helps...
     
  12. dccpa

    dccpa Active Member

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    For most markets I would agree, but a lot of pm investors have an almost cult-like belief in the metals and just continue to buy more and more and more. 2014 ASE sales were very high.
     

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