I comprehend just fine. But I don't need to "believe" what might be. Instead I use what I know. I don't subscribe to the self-interest-scare-monger-campaign-sales-tactic rhetoric of the select few self-labelled gurus. I like to make up my own mind. I am in the game because I play. And when I play well, I make profits. I own my decisions, and don't need to offload blame. I take responsibility if price moves against me, and don't feel the need to be always right. I manage risk accordingly, and protect my capital.
Thanks for the candid post SilverPete. Clearly, from the number of threads that frequently pop up on this forum under the theme of "will silver drop to X USD?", short term spot price is front of mind for many others and casting doubt in the minds of some I'm sure. As willrocks said, you're letting emotions creep into what should be a rational investment decision. No need to chide yourself too much though, who hasn't had emotion cloud their decision making at some point? Better to acknowledge it as you have and try think about what action you should take. Its not really my place to be dishing out advice however fwiw it sounds like you need to re-engage with (but not necessarily "reassess") your stacking philosophy. Why did you get into stacking? Does the recent price action invalidate those reasons? Etc... Best of luck with it, ML
Thanks. No matter what, I just keep stacking (usually more as the price drops) although I regularly reevaluate the mix of what I stack. Personally, I think we are all fallible and but we often don't appreciate this. WRT cognitive biases, I doubt it is possible to eliminate them completely but it helps if we admit we have them and can recognise the influence they have on our decision making and on the types of information we seek out and trust. This morning I found the below article on cognitive and emotional biases. [I have trimmed out some details, but the original is still fairly short and quick to read]:
SilverPete, I feel that you are complicating what is simple. Stacking is simple, you accumulate at the best possible price on the day, some chosen coin or bar that will augment your stack. What is complicated is investing, buying and selling to make a profit. Physical metals would be the worst tool for such an endeavour as the difference between the buyer and seller's premium usually negates any profit. You would need to play the paper market. The profit you get from stacking is the stacking experience. Only you can put a value on that. Financial profit usually only comes from going long.
PMs have yet to prove a poor investment for me. Going by past performance, I should apologise to all for causing the drop in PM prices. However, my usual effect is to cause things to turn turtle, and I haven't achieved that yet, so maybe there is hope. My worst-loss investing strategy involved a roulette table. My best-paying investing strategy involved a roulette table. I'm hoping PMs are a little more worthwhile overall. At least it seems to take longer ...... Honestly, doubt helps keep you honest. It causes you to assess and re-assess. Excessive doubt, however, paralyses you and prevents you from taking action when you should or startles you into action when you should hold still. "Invest" only that which you can afford to lose and enjoy the game. Whatever it is, including roulette.
So in other words, you knowingly & willingly play in numerous rigged games, yourself -- yet chide others for doing the same. Got it.
Maybe I didn't describe my intent very clearly... I don't stack for profit. I am noting that there are certain human attributes and falabilities that lead to cognitive and emotional biases, and I think it is important to understand this and be wary of their influence. I listed what I think are mine and what I see in others, and the ones I think I personally need to watch out for. Some people refuse to question their own biases, but if you do, and try to understand the potential impact they have on your thinking, then I believe it will help in understanding risks and in becoming more mentally and emotionally resilient to changing conditions, and importantly, can help in avoiding subtle, insidious influences that may fly under your conscious radar.
No - you ain't even close to got it. Not in other words, or in any words at all. The words claiming rigged games were yours, not mine. I do however willingly play. And I've never chided others for doing the same. In fact I would encourage it. I will chide others for playing, then trying to blame others or offload accountability for their own wrong investment decisions or shitty risk management. If you want to rephrase my posts, then at least make it resemble a little of what I actually said.
PM is a hedge against stocks of other varieties. if you look at reports of the day/s when silver and gold were heading north not so many days ago you find them dropping (other stocks etc) and PM rising. now PM's are dropping and http://www.cnbc.com/id/102276399 its not rocket science I think people over complicate this stuff. one up one down its balance can't be both up now can they so yeah if you don't like stocks which silver and gold are as are all investments right. get out and go play another game there are plenty out there to play for me when the stocks backed by banks etc tank which we had a slight glimpse of over the last week or so I will have cash when others don't giving me more buying power, other side of the coin is when the ship is sailing along smoothly I look like a dickhead holding metals. its the game we have created. PS if all else fails watch this and stop thinking for awhile you get old fast thinking to much and it wont matter if you have silver or gold or what ever !! [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zh-D4nAMhk[/youtube]
In time, most of us will find that buying was actually the easy part. This time and place will fade and eventually we will face the opposite side of coin........when to sell? The same questions that fill our minds now...ie how low can it go?...as we want the best possible entry price, minimum time for price turnaround ( I have been sitting on my coins for 8 years now).......but in time we will stress over just how high this silver can go and the opportune time to sell to maximise profit.
