it's all working out so far on a pretty good timeline for me. even at a generous discount i managed to gain (maybe 1-2%) on my 20 or so ounces buying i did over the october-december period. i'm out of work now so while the dip progresses i wouldn't want to buy anyway. hopefully i can rustle up some work before the second of feb when my bills are due again and get saving to stack with renewed vigour. i'm figuring on april-may as the bottom.
I dare say if there is a massive drop tonight, It will be another Xmas period saga where the public holiday tomorrow will be an excuse for closing the online orders. So buy today or wait until Thursday....
One issue with your logic here is the price of the 1oz coin even if we do get back down to the levels you mention. As seen here http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-5423-nostalgia-from-2008.html even when Silver was $10.75 USD an ounce ($13.37 AUD) a 1oz Kookaburra was still $29! I think you can forget the idea of seeing consistent <$30 price points for 1oz coins as it just doesn't look like it happens.
Thanks to Roo - one of the trailblazers of cheap bullion in Australia - in 2009 we could source Kookaburras for $25 ea. Think I might have even paid less than that for some. Spot was still in the teens, but we were no longer being reamed with the "retail" single coin prices for bulk purchases.
ordered a box & a half of coins from ainslies the other day asked for kooks got kooks turned up 2day also a few pm 1 kg bars checked the freight records & there on there way too so give them a go. they only ship mon-tues & wed though so your hard earned isnt sitting in a depot over the weekend good luck
From my investigation I have a hunch we might be looking at something big here... There seems to be a massive divergence between paper Silver and Physical, large investors are pulling their money from ETF's while physical demand is gaining.. I think this is a little more then profit taking, I suspect something is about to go down.
my plan was to hold out till 25. It's close. when do those reports come out? That are supposed to shoot it up again? march?
if you look at the two years past the silver has been on an uptrend, actually, going back, the current uptrend goes back to november 2008 and the price level then was 9. i'm not sure what the generally considered price movement fibonacci ratios or whatever there are, but a return to double the last bottom seems like a reasonable long range (3-6 month) retracement. that would put the price around 18. if we assume a real inflation rate based on PPI of about 15-20% over the same period, that's an uderlying 32% at that bottom end 15% number, during that two year period, that puts the underlying fundamental minima of about $12. so i still stand by my prediction of ~15 dollar silver within the next 6 months. right now, the biggest spike in real demand is the retail market in small lots of minted coins, this can be seen in the climbing premiums where some retailers are putting a ~33% markup over spot. this is a signal to mints that if they can ramp up production they can profit. this can't happen at present because most silver is now tied up in large bullion bars of 1 kilos and up, locked in vaults. in order to meet the retail demand we actually need those big players with their hundeds and thousands of kilo bars to put them back on the market so they can be poured into blanks, printed up and distributed to retailers. and to do that the price has to fall very significantly on the spot basis in order to have the big holders drop it. there definitely is a situation of two separate markets for silver, and the price on the retail bullion coin and small bar market is a huge arbitrage opportunity, and the utilising of this opportunity will start, and indeed show with a pretty big dip on spot. right now the dip has to do with the fact that supply has been squeezed to almost nonexistent. while one theory might suggest this means that price should be higher, i think that when it hits a certain squeeze point the delays on delivery and comex fulfilling silver orders with a 30% over premium, simply, the interest in buying has dipped, 'buyer fatigue' as some people are saying. it's gonna continue going up and it's gonna go well past the 31 dollar peak for sure, but the market has to loosen up more before it can continue, and more of the silver has to be divested from comex and put in the hands of independent businesses, of which one major segment will be mints. ounce coins will be very unlikely to drop much below about 25 but spot is gonna go right down to at least 18, in my opinion.
oh no - wrack and ruin - my spreadsheet says that the current value of my silver is almost less (inc postage) than what i spent on it - oh no - sell, sell, sell.
no need for Good chance to buy more and lower your cost average. (I was exaggerating with the "wrack and ruin" and "sell, sell, sell." bits.)
Charts LOOK confusing, dont know what the hell and WTF is going to happen, I need about another 5KG to get to my happy position but i am not going to pull any triggers yet. Gonna wait just a tad longer. Lots of conflicting information out there which means everybody is just as confused as everyone else. Im looking at 5KG more of nice PAMP bars or some perth mint 20 ounce shineys ... prices look tempting ... arggh but not ... just ..... yet ...... Just read on zerohedge that goldman saches is saying 1690 for gold and 28 for silver for 2011, explanation for why they reckon silver will finish on 28 was quiet lame ... "Over the long run, silver prices tend to track gold prices. Thus, our silver forecast reflects the historical ratio to gold" Nothing more then that Not sure which historical ratio they are talking about cause i would guess it has changed quite a few times.
Tell you what. I will keep buying shares in silver speccys which seems to definitely be forcing the price down, and once everyone has had their fill of physical at low prices, I will take out a significant short position against silver. All things being equal, when i short it.... it will go to the mooooon!
Just picked up a roll of kooks from Ainslie $32.50 a pop sounds good to me Hopefully it goes a little further down and ill dip in again
I saw an article on the net - google for it - that some traders were taking cash premiums to defer delivery so may be something in that 'something big' Dan. My approach is buy as you can afford. If I was able to afford kilos and kilos I'd gamble on the downtrend, but with a few dollars here and there it hardly matters in the big picture does it?