All the "collectors" buying up big on lunars and rolls of lunars are not collecting for coin collecting? they are for selling, Who do the sellers think the lunar end game will be? Chinese buyers. No Chinese buyers, bullion value lunars purchased then sold on with premiums plus premium with the expectation of more premium.
Okay, let me try again. Silver is a hunk of metal with spot value. Some of these hunks are worth more than spot, because of the form - shape. This form or shape does not give them any universal intrinsic value, however, because of things like limited issue, or special interest (baseball hall of fame) collectors will pay well above spot for them. Today, as I type, Lunars are selling for well above spot, the question becomes who, and why. Who, is collectors and stackers, MOST of whom are NOT Chinese. that is how I see it, if you have evidence to the contrary, that may change things. Why, is most of these buyers expect that they will trade or sell them in the future, with a gain in profit - even though they paid well above spot today. Do they expect to sell them to Chinese collectors???? I do not think so. They expect to sell them to future collectors, of any and all nationalities. China can dissolve, all Chinese citizens go to dust in the wind, and that may actually increase the value of Lunars. Elvis is worth more dead than alive. I expect to sell many Lunars, not a one to a Chinese citizen. Same with Kooks- except with Australians, and except there are not near as many potential Australian buyers as Chinese buyers. I do not think the end game of Kook buyers involves Australians or Kiwis. JMHO Hope this helps.
Not saying you are wrong in your assessment of how it is supposed to work, but there are a s...load of Franklin Mint collectors selling off collections for which they paid megabucks for now circa spot, or if they are extremely lucky, what they paid for them 30 years ago. Clearly not the best investment they could have made. And the same for stamps - bought a collection last year put out by Stanley Gibbons 30 years ago that came with the original purchase invoice - I paid half in current dollars (including postage) than what the original purchaser did in "then" British pounds which would make it probably less than 20% original. The amount of stuff I have picked up like this makes me think that limited edition collectors items are a highly speculative market. The current situation reminds me a bit of the '70s when the local philatelic club got on to the then current trend of buying mint sheets with a view to making a fortune. These same sheets can often be picked up now for not much more than face value.
"Limited edition collector series" are just about a guaranteed loser. Sorry you thought I implied otherwise. Not just PM - a universal truism in all areas of collecting. 'Limited issue" is something else completely. Only 10,000 made, for whatever reason - only so many available. My point was, a dissolving country does not devalue minted coinage. Collecting is not about "The people who made my item are alive, well, and prospering". Collecting for potential profit is definitely speculative, no question there. Collect what you like, buy extra for later swaps or sales. Worst case scenario, you will be holding multiple copies of what you like. I can guarantee how you can lose money, but not how to make money. Buy only "Special edition, for the serious collector, limited time offer." - based not on what you like, but on hype. I promise, you will lose money. Avoid that tactic, and who knows. Franklin mint - Hype, hype, hype. Probably 10 losers for every winner. JMO - others may disagree.
Myself or spouse have collected (and resold for profit) vintage oil lamps, kitchen bowls, rolling pins, cast iron skillets and other cookware, various ephemera, advertising, and a bunch of stuff not really collected, just bought and sold for profit.
