Will the stock market crash any day now or is it simply unlikely due to Fed policies? This video investigates both viewpoints. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s879G9QB_EY[/youtube] What's your opinion? Do you think a market crash is right around the corner??
The fact it hasn't yet happened yet doesn't mean that it won't happen. It means it's even more likely and will be even greater when it occurs.
"The stock market won't crash because there's no alternative to stocks." I love this argument. In all the other crashes, people found alternatives. Why wouldn't they this time around? "Bonds are of little use to anyone that needs to build up cash for the future." Another great argument. I didn't know there are people who need to get richer and people who don't. Moreover, those people NEED to get richer on the stock market. They can't do it working by themselves or putting their money on other cash generator investment classes. Wonder what will happen to those people that NEED to get richer when the stock market crashes...
Every week, every day for years people have been claiming a crash is imminent. One day it may happen, maybe one day soon or maybe not. It is better to think in terms of probability and risk rather than absolutes, a yes or or no, when it comes to the timing of an abrupt market reversal. Alternatively, we may see a smallish drop that is still significant enough to scare people resulting in decades of disinflation and stagnancy.
I think if you live your life as if it has happened, then every opportunity to buy cheap silver, food, cash, water, petrol, etc., is a windfall.
Imminent Market correction looming...margin calls looming which will drag stocks down at un-precedented levels. Some of those who purchased gold and silver ten years ago will sell gold to cover their margin causing a temp drop followed by a rush to gold especially if the USD follows the stock-market down. Not every Tom had a decent computer in the last GFC but every-man and his dog is connected and... fwiw I see severs getting jammed like a 90 year-old manual removal. It's going to be a blood bath imo. Why will it happen? The same reason folk said there was no place for gold in the Tech Boom. This time we have cheap interest rates, easily obtainable loans (margin) beyond the means of many folk and a mentality that is eager to buy stocks regardless of PE ratios. When will it happen and what will be the seed? Iron ore down, Oil down, Jobs down, Japan in recession (Forecast 2% growth they got neg 1.6 ) China slowing, Germany slowing, Terrorists on the door step (Turkey) and probably an imminent strategic strike. The battle of the world currencies...Swiss gold ref...etc...etc..etc. Strategy Pay off debts Don't loose your job Cashed-up in AUD for local defensive stocks. On good stock-news, (hype)...buy a bit more silver. Have AUD spare cash ready. If playing the stock-market take some of your profits off the table. Not sure what others think but I get the feeling that many folk are confused, scared and really don't know what is going to happen or when that will happen. imo...there will always be a time to get a bargain but in times when you can't afford to loose your capital or the markets are confusing, it's always a good idea to go defensive. Many young blokes who have the capacity to re-earn their nest egg or have little in the way of responsibilities can do as they please but, if you are old and can't work, these are the times to make sure you have all your shite in one sock. DYODD
How about we call it a "CORRECTION"...... say, in terms of cycles.... usually every 4-6 years we have a correction. The next one is due anytime now... but, with Japan, Switzerland and potentially Europe printing more money, it makes the healthy correction, if you can say that, to a delay mode. QE4 coming from US soon ? Obviously, China has been trying to cool down the expansion on their country.... but, cheap money(printed money) always find the way to every market and assets.... DEBT/EXPANSION has already forced a series of decisions from the major economic hubs..... the problem for "mums and dads"(common plebe/public) is that we will not know exactly when the next BIG CORRECTION starts... it comes fast and furious...overnight..... My shot here is on the dark but, I'd say it will come on the first quarter of 2015.....between end of January to April..... you will see more and more companies laying off staff , volatility on various assets/markets/currencies and bad publicity on the media stream with financial analysts telling the public anecdotes..... Keep your debts down and if you like PM's and believe on them, keep your mind on the PHYSICAL aspect of it.... the paper price/story is a fantasy... Interesting times ahead....
Watch for a series of fast, large upward moves in the PM market of a magnitude that are unexpected and unrelated to the timing of regular economic data releases and unrelated to any news. That could be a sign, a signal, of imminent trouble as large buyers with deep knowledge move into safehaven assets. It could also be a nation state making a major move. Any large buyer with a half a brain would not want to signal to the market their intent by making very large purchases in a short period of time that would move the market significantly. So if they and their peers keep buying regardless of the the signalling effect on prices then you know something is definately up, and that others will soon follow.
The stock market is the oly magnet for investors at the moment. Interest rates are low so all small money is headed that way as well; retirees, superannuation, cashed up individuals etc. There is little return on investment, just the paper profit of the capital gain; few take it as there is nowhere to reinvest it. Some large money is also moving to property. The elite seem to move within a higher plane, precious metals, property, art works, flash cars etc. The corporate investors however, are caught up in the bubble, they cannot risk taking time out of the market as their competitors will be seen as more capable investors, plus again, where will you put the money? The corporations of course are priced beyond their ability give a production dividend so use borrowings from increased share value to give a return. All this grew on the back of QE and as this money dries up the bubble will burst or a new round of US QE will start. Some shortfall is being made up from the EU and Japan. SilverPete's views on large unexpected moves in PMs is certainly something to watch out for. The big concern lies with the liquidity of the banks. As the corporations and individuals are heavily leveraged, if stocks and property fall below par, then the banks will force their depositors to bail-in to cover the shortfalls. Corporations will fire staff, the staff will have no income and little or no savings because of bail-ins, super will be decimated, governments will have less tax revenue and the S will well and truly HTF. Just saying. Have a good day.
it could also happen in another 20 years, there is no set end as to how long they can keep kicking this can down the road
It is irrelevant from what your comments I was quoting. You said the crash will be hard and large, this may not happen for 20, 30, 50, 100, 1000, 10000000000000000000000000000 + years yet. Also silver is not an insurance policy. If you bought anywhere in the last 4 years you have lost money and gone backwards with inflation adjusted compared to almost every other asset class.
