Jim Rogers has held the same opinion on gold and silver for the past year: [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qt_yTiPrR8A[/youtube] Source: http://dailysilverupdate.com/blog/2...er-usd-predictions-gold-correction-usd-rally/ Is Jim correct in waiting for a 50% correction before adding to his position? Do you agree with his stance on US Dollar strength for the next few years?
Just to repeat, a 50% correction is not conventionally the halfway point between the top and zero. Zero is an arbitrary level. A 50% correction is normally 50% of a rally. So if we taking the entire bull market in gold: That would span from roughly $250 in 2001 to $1900 in 2011. That's a move of $1650. 50% of the move is $825 So a retracement of 50% of the bull market would take gold to $1075 (1900 - 825 = 1075)
gold and silver up today and look to be firming up, at least compared to some of the dire end of year predictions people were making. Not saying things are roses and clover but there more I read and the closer we get to new years the more confident I am that we won't see $1000usd silver by 1 January .
would you normally factor in inflation? because at $1075 we got within a few percent of that recently ($1150 a couple weeks ago).
Not normally, but I don't see why you shouldn't. Agreed a 2001 dollar is not a 2014/15 dollar. Let's remember these are pretty arbitrary rules of thumb anyway. For instance silver has already retraced more than 50% of its entire bull market rally. Silver has also declined more than 50% of its entire price from the top to zero. So whichever way with that one. Other common retracements are less or more than 50% - - 38% and 62% are said to be common. Maybe Rogers has other reasons to expect sub $1000, but that's not what he is saying - he's giving the reason as waiting for 'half price' (from zero to top) and that is not the 'norm' as I have heard it
IMHO Jim has lost his touch calling the markets since 2009 when the big printing and relentless manipulation on the markets started.... like Blythe Masters and the like..... His interview are fun to watch and his own history is awesome but, there is nothing more to it.... no sigh or "in" calls..... only what we all know about fundamentals..... My opinion only..... note: fun watching him pulling a piece of silver and gold from his pockets on his interviews.... lol cheers
Certainly seems to be a sensible enough fellow. I'm hoping he is right and that the prices stay down for a while so that I can accumulate more. Not good for those who need to cash in for some reason, though. There are those here who seem to have real cash and can buy to trade, but in my position I can only accumulate slowly, like a savings plan. Sustained low prices followed by a nice steady rise in a few years towards retirement would suit me just dandy. I suppose I'm lucky in that I don't have very much (my ex took care of that), so I don't have much to lose. I'd hate to be a billionaire trying to decide where to put my money so that when the SHTF for the financial world (read: when reality hits the financial world) I didn't suddenly become only a millionaire. Seriously, that would be enough to give a bod some sleepless nights. I can still mow lawns and earn a meal. And I've spent time living down the riverbank - you get used to it, but you do miss having hot showers and getting properly clean. And I can't think where I'd store my stack under those circumstances - might have to swap from silver to gold
stocks took a hit the last few days, and gold even got a mention as a riser so sort of proves when the other stocks get hit people run to metal so they have not forgotten it look at the Aussie $ getting flogged things are changing but give it a week