Okay so I was wrong we hit 15.95 oz today. but how many think the gsr is going to stay outta wack quite a while I do and at what point do you believe it will settle at? I am now thinking maybe 14.70 silver and 980 oz gold then silver will begin to close the gsr gap by rising slightly better than usual against gold. graydragon
GSR is about 73.5 at the moment, I have already swapped half my gold for silver, if it hits 75 then I will swap a bit more. As to the actual prices, they are not really much of a concern for doing swaps. Once it hits 80 then I want it to reverse and over correct so I can swap all my new silver back for gold. Other than that I don't tend to worry too much about the actual dollar amount.
Sounds like a smart strategy one I might be doing if I had gold. pm me sometime in the future if your interested in swapping. thanks graydragon
Silver averages moving about 2x gold. For silver to move 8% and gold 16% would be an anomaly. Betting on an anomaly to happen, especially without odds, is a good way to lose. The last time pms dropped, the GSR went to the 80s. Why would this time be different? Edited for spelling.
For this sort of swap I no longer use physical metals, too expensive to ship them. The last swap I completed involved 4 ounces of gold and around 8 kg of silver so it would be too expensive to use physical metals. I use an unallocated account with GoldStackers and they just move inventory around from one side of the safe to another. I did one physical trade back at GSR 53, swapped about 3kg of predecimal coins for 3/4oz in Gold Maples but it was a hassle and you have to work out the different premiums for the different types of coins etc. and by the time you have done that the GSR has changed anyway. Unallocated swaps can be done with a phonecall and a follow up email, unless I stuff up, in which case it takes a couple of emails.
I believe it was at least two years ago that I was calling for $14 USD silver. That's when silver was still in the $30's. Most stackers probably thought I was smoking some real good grass but perhaps the chicken is coming home to roost now. $14 silver looks more likely every few days that pass now. As for the GSR, I believe that it will increase for quite a while....maybe stay high for a very long time. I'm convinced that the long ago 1:15/16 GSR will never return nor ever get close to that ratio again. I am far from an expert but I do read many articles written by people who seem to be smart and knowledgeable. As with any projection or prediction, of course I can be wrong. Time will tell. .
It's possible given the right conditions. Silver prices are affected primarily by industrial demand, futures trading, investor (physical and paper) demand, and jewelry sales. No country backs its currency with silver, silver has not functioned as money in many, many years, and central banks no longer store reserves of silver. One would think that it's easy to predict future industrial demand but I don't have a clear take on it. New technologies are being developed all the time and who's to say that silver won't be replaced with materials that are more cost effective to integrate into the pipeline. Sure, may take a while for some of these advancements to make their way into commercial production. I look at film for example, when I was using film I had no clue that some day film was going to go the way of 8 track. Investor demand appears to be strong for both silver and gold. Gold is stockpiled by CB's and it is used as money by CB's and large institutions if I understand correctly how it's used. If there were to be a return to a metal backed currency, it would be gold, not silver that would be used. There's far less gold in the world than silver. From what I understand, China, Russia, and some other nations are buying lots of gold and not so much silver. I've also been reading hearing about some new discoveries of tons and tons of silver while there's far less chatter regarding new discoveries of gold. Looking at the GSR charts, in the past 10 years, there's only been one brief time that the GSR fell below 40. Since then, it's been going up. I think, for these and other reasons, the GSR may stay well above 40 indefinitely....but I am, of course, by no means an authority and there are plenty of way more knowledgeable people on this subject out there. .
Like the old saying goes, history has a way of repeating itself. Just because silver hasn't been used for money in a long time doesn't mean it never will be again. Maybe there's no good reason right NOW for it to be used as money, but reasons change like seasons. Maybe over a long period of time, or maybe something cuuuhhraaazzyy will happen TOMORROW...have you all stocked up on your tampons yet?
