Great questions and post. To da moon may very well be possible (who really knows???) And I don't think it has to take a world-wide, nasty event (collapse of the dollar) to get us there. I'm not sure if this is a fair example, but how long ago was Palladium trading for 200.00? I don't think it was too far in the past. Around 2009? And it popped up to almost 1000.00 an ounce recently. I know, I know, the naysayers will say it is a different metal, and Russia owns all of it, etc...but my point is, regardless of the reasons, it did climb to 1,000.00, and the world is still intact...for now. Why couldn't silver go from 20.00 to 200-300 in a few years, especially because of the world we live in? And for those out there that say I'm not a buyer. Ha. Bring on 10.00 - 17.00 and be the happiest person in the world
Malooney's business is to sell you gold and silver - no wonder he will find any reason to promote his cause. His company literally relies on people like you buying the gold and silver story to profit (in USD!). The real question: why would you trust someone who has a direct interest in selling you what he advocates?
Well I don't buy from him. What you say is true, he may be a salesmen, but that is irrelevant to the information provided. He gives valid reasons to believe that the price of silver (and gold) will increase dramatically at some point. It may never come to pass, but the reasons he gives for believing that it will are worth taking into consideration. But to be honest, I didn't know he sold PMs. That does change things because if he believes what he is saying then why would he sell silver while it's so low right now, while advocating investing in it? But like I said, the information and claims, if accurate and reliable, is what really counts.
The information provided is always portraying a unique view: permabull, always up. Never will you see Malooney say PMs are going down, you should sell now. It's always you should buy now. He is in the business of selling so it makes sense. His views are the same as all the permabulls, it does not mean any of that will happen: He can put forward any scenario and this does not reflect the chances of occurring. But of course when you are provided only this part of the picture, it makes sense and you really feel this can and will happen. The same information framing could be used to 'sell' any story.
There's truth to that too, but if it can be applied specifically to this silver situation, then where do I need to go to find that information? I want to see a counter argument to Maloney's speculations.
All we have to do is look at Rhodium, another noble metal; within the span of about 6 months, it lost 900% value, dropping even more quickly than it rose: http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalrhodium.html. The value of metals is based largely on sentiment. If sentiment for silver is poor over the next 10 years, guess what, there will likely be no long term bull cycle during this period. You know what that also means for the price? Sideways with a healthy dose of volatility --~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-> .
Well it's not good to delude ourselves either. We all want it to go up but that doesn't mean we should ignore any information that might suggest that it won't go up. I did do a search for "silver is a bad investment" to see if I could find anything to convince me otherwise, but I didn't find much beyond this one article, which certainly didn't convince me. I think this guy's kind of out of the loop, and he thinks it's better to invest in PM stocks than the real deal: http://www.howtoinvesthq.com/investing-in-silver/ The first "reason" he gives isn't even valid. I wouldn't say silver is "widely available" compared to gold when there is MORE gold than silver on the surface. And saying there's "more silver mines than gold mines" is an uninformed statement. I've read that there are hardly any specific mines left for these PMs, but rather they're sort of by products of other mines, found in the process of mining specifically for other more common metals.
I think you have to realise there is little to gain in saying this or that is NOT a good investment unless you are trying to push something else instead. People who are convinced it is not a good investment do not to write about it nearly as much as the ones who are convinced it is! Not to mention they would get flamed by the permabulls - true with precious metals more than other subjets. I think this is something you have to look at critically for yourself and keep in mind there is often an agenda to those pushing this or that.
I don't listen much to what Malooney says about Silver. I look at what China, Russia, India, ect are doing with stockpiling Gold and Silver. Because of their actions and also because of the state of world economies and debt I'm convinced there will be a bull market on PM's sooner or later. Especially Silver.
Already, at least 2 years ago (when I first started tuning in to precious metals talk), the permabulls have been clamouring that since Central Banks, China and (to a lesser extent) India have been hoarding and buying massive amounts of gold that this means that the price will go to da moon tomorrow. Since that time, gold has dropped to it knees. So much for that permabull theory. Any other theories from that camp? Oh yeah, I almost forgot...it's massive manipulation from the evil forces that are holding the metals down in the dirt. Funny how these alleged forces of manipulation only manipulate when it's a convenient rationalization for the argument of the permabull. In spite of permabull rhetoric, I am still long term bullish on silver. .
Gold price has certainly stumbled, but I'm not sure that dropped to it's knees is quite accurate. My superannuation performed easily as bad a few years ago. I've continued putting into that but certainly not as heavily as many. I think the PM "permabull rhetoric" has it's analogue in superannuation - you'll find no end of superannuation salespersons telling you to put in every spare dollar, but they won't guarantee that the arse won't fall out of it. I know of a lot of people who'll be very sorry indeed if there's another GFC nd their super plummets again. I know of several people who lost stacks when the Western/Royal Super went near belly-up circa early 90s and AMP performance around the same time was something like a 50% fall. Luckily I was only singed rather than burnt, but I've always been a bit cautious about super since. Biggest problem I've had with PMs is that my lunatic ex found it - seems just before it all disappeared. From all I've been reading, it's a case of run your own race, invest for your own reasons, watch out for the hype, and diversify.
So India is getting richer and all the silver jewellery traditionally being given at weddings is being dumped (= lower silver prices until that is all hoovered up) and they are buying gold sets instead (= gold is about to go to the moon when that happens) Silver has been leaked out into the market by governments and central banks everytime the price rises in order to flood the market and bring the prices down again, but now they have run out of their stockpiles (= end of the manipulation and silver will gain its true value) Historically the Gold to Silver ratio has been 1:16. Should silver return to this level it will be worth $X00 an ounce!
In order for that theory to be practically assessed, you would have to give an approximate time frame otherwise if it takes 10 more years for silver to hit $X00/oz, you can conveniently claim that your theory was right. That's like playing tennis without the net. Also, what exactly do you mean by "leaked out into the market"? Be very precise and explain this. Thanks. .
Wondering the same thing mmissinglink. I haven't read much into government manipulation of PMs but I can't think of why they'd want to flood the market and drive prices down. Seems like that's something that would be bad for them and good for the people. Why not just keep the silver and have it worth more? I don't get it.
Not my theories, just some of the permabull that I have come across in my reading around the web. By leaked I mean that they were sold quietly and unobtrusively so as not to make any fuss. The banks don't want any competition, they want you to see their fiat as being a fantastic store of wealth. So when silver starts to go up in value people think it is better than money for storing their wealth. So banks increase the supply side by offloading silver, bringing the prices down and restoring confidence in their fiat. As I say, not my theory.
Well we know for sure that there will not be a significant decline in the cost of production. The price of fuel will have the most affect on the cost to produce. Most silver I understand is a byproduct of mining gold and copper and not primary (I've read big producers have a $5oz cost of production and smaller guys "primaries"up to $22oz). Questions to answer is how much is in the ground? How much will it cost to mine. How much silver is recoverable. If and when there is a global economic crisis will silver be able to re-establish the GSR? What about manipulation and end of the old fix and hello to the new fix? With that said how can we be hurt buying $15-17 silver bullion coins and bars? Any Ideas?
Even if the pressures occurred that would send silver to the moon, there is a big wall to get past. There are people out there who bought in the 30-40US range that are disillusioned with silver and will be more than happy to dump their stacks when POS gets back to that range. If silver wants to go to the moon it will have to fight through that flood of supply. Any idea how much resistance that will create?
