His reasons against gold are yield and cash-flow. He claims that Gold will not appreciate because it doesn't provide a return, that the trend is toward a cashless society where government extracts every cent of tax and that basically everyone must run harder and faster chasing income returns from their investments. Yet he acknowledges that Gold is a currency in those countries whose citizens do not have an entitlement mentality or dependence on government. So his prognostication on gold declining is partly based on western cultures increasing their dependence on government and governments increasing their controls over their citizens. This is precisely what was meant by Howard Buffet in his classic essay "Human Freedom Rests on Gold Redeemable Money". What he is betting on is the continued rise of the fascist state increasing its power over personal wealth, assets and income, for the next few years, until gold bottoms in 2016 or so. Does that mean his projection of a gold bottom is also based on an anticipation for the failure of totalitarian governance? I admit to betting against the economic controls of the state with PMs. I was winning too and things were playing out as expected until they changed the rules. So Armstrong is of a similar view to Phillip Anderson in that, they identify as critical to their forecasting the determination of the collective arms of government to change the rules and turn the screws without regard to anyone or anything so as to maintain their tax take. In that regard, I think the proof of the past 3 years is that PM investors have really underestimated the degree to which those in power will go to keep their game of taxing the economy going on. I guess the critical question these days, with the hindsight of the past few years, is "what will cause a failure in government's financial control over its citizens?" Or to put it another way, "what will give raise to human freedom once again?" I think it is safe to say that as long as "people" are talking about the Bachelor, X-factor or their Football team, the pain of being financially controlled is not sufficiently high for any change to occur and things will get progressively worse (vis-a-vis freedom and gold). Makes one wonder what Armstrong sees occurring in 2016.
