Hello everyone, new here as well as to stacking in general. I doubt that any here can see into the future , but I was wondering if any of you that have kept track of such things over a long period of time, or keep up with things that would influence price changes (like certain companies incorporating silver into their products) or whatever, was just wondering if anyone would care to give an educated guess for the near future (1-2 years or so) and give reasons for any speculation. When looking at long term graphs it seems like you can more or less suspect which direction it will go by following the "waves" over years in the graph. Having said that, it would seem that silver is going to drop a bit more before rising again (I don't mean small daily price changes but a significant one over a period of time). That's just my very uneducated opinion lol but I'd like to hear others speculate.
Truth is, not even the most ardent chart readers, "fundamentals" observers, and wave graphers knows what big price moves amounts and when they will occur. If someone gets it right in terms of precise amounts and dates, it is by luck only. Now, that doesn't mean that general predictions that are fairly accurate can't be made....I think they can. I think it could be said that a commodity like silver will see some dramatic lows followed by dramatic highs followed by dramatic lows ad infinitum. Therefore, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a big silver price drop over the next 12 months followed by big price moves up within the years following that low. I think that were there anyone who was saying that they can predict with certainty the future price movements of silver with great accuracy, you should keep that person at a great distance because there's something wrong with him/her. In other words, general predictions are fine, claims of precise knowledge is a warning. .
This topic will bring much attention to individuals from both sides of the aisle, so be ready lol. As for what I think, I like to think along the lines of real world terms, and not permanent bull terms. As far as graphs are concerned, I would take those with a grain of salt because those are the past, and we do not know what the future holds in store for us. Most just get gold, silver, platinum, and palladium to have a little something just in case the stock market were to go south, because as we all know, could happen anytime. As for me, instead of keeping cash, I keep my reserves in precious metals. I believe that silver will go higher in the future because the fed is printing absurd amounts of money and we have nothing backing up the FRN, just like the Euro, and other various currencies around the world. There are rumors that the Swiss are thinking about going back to a gold standard. I read that somewhere earlier today.
http://goldprice.org/ 18 September 2013 you could buy a ten oz Perth Mint Bar for $257.00 24 February 2014 you could buy a ten oz Perth Mint Bar for $267.80 01 May 2014 you could buy a Perth Mint Bar for $228.90 05 September 2014 you can buy a Perth Mint Bar $230.40 My opinion for the silver price? That will depend on many factors. But...I'm buying for the long term; to me, long term means longer than 8 years. And just for fun, I wanted to show this video, not because it has anything to do with silver but the commentary may appeal to those who stack silver. (The shock is coming) [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hx5UecbuYw8[/youtube]
1. US jobs figures continue to seriously miss expectations for a prolonged amount of time. Gold gets some love as a result. 2. War They're basically what needs to happen. Investors need a reason to jump into gold (silver will ride up with it) without a reason there's no chance of Silver climbing. Stupidity on the scale of 2011 only ever happens once, the next time we get that kind of movement it will be on the back of terrible news.
My current sentiment is lower short term, higher long term and no idea medium term. This is just the outcome that would least surprise me at this point in time and not a prediction of any kind whatsoever.
I also intend to be in this for the long run. I have no interest in short selling. I'm hoping prices drop so I can buy more silver before the inevitable high rise. I know that 1-2 years is not long term, but it seems like there have been considerable price changes in periods that short. From the lows of 2008 to the highs of 2011. I do not know what the determining factors were in those years though. Also, my concern is the possibility that this IS a big low. It could climb a lot from here and not go down much lower than $20/oz. If so I'd try to put more money towards it now, but of course there is no way of knowing. Thanks for the replies, I enjoy thinking/reading about things in a more theoretical way than black/white absolutes.
After years of studying price movements and many hours of calculations I can say with absolute certainty that the price in the future will either be lower or higher than it is today
The silver price will be where it always has been. At the top of the page next to the gold price. (Happy Fathers Day everyone).
Probably a couple dollars lower than current, and gold $1100 or so. That's what the stocks and the futures hedge say. At the moment it thus looks like that for another silver saving operation its better to wait for a better price and more ounces. Give it a month or so. And at the end of this month there will be blabla about central bank gold agreement 4, it doesn't mean a thing, but alot scammers out there make a thing of it, and may try to use it to drive people into whatever higher or lower. The only "true" game changer: general price risings. The rest is just a temporary cycle of error.
If you actually think anybody can effectively predict (short-term, mid-range or long-term) future gyrations of PM spot prices, your hopes are misplaced. The best and only thing anybody can hope to do is making prudent and desirable purchases at a given point in time. Putting you focus, time and effort into avoiding getting screwed with the endless flow of copies, knockoffs an counterfeits that are flooding the world these days is far more sensible than trying to guess where spot prices will be in a week, a month, a few months or whenever.
Just forget about fiat. What matters is the price of silver expressed in other products. Over 2004-2013, alot silver was stockpiled as 'investment' (read: monetary role of storage of value). Coins&Bars: +1223.6 Moz ETF Inventory: +633 Moz Exchange Inventory: +61.5 Moz All together: 1918.1 Moz. Average annual supply2004-2013: 953.81 Moz (= Mine Production + Net Government Sales + Scrap + Net Hedging Supply) So, the extra silver stockpiled over 2004-2013 amounts to 1918.1 / 953.81 = 2.011 years. What does this mean in practice? That de production of silver can deadstop, and all demand (including new investment) can continue to be met for 2 years, without the price changing. This stock can undo the price effect of an annual demand increase OR supply drop of: - 70 Moz for 27 years. - 140 Moz for 13.5 years. - 280 Moz for 7 years. - 560 Moz for 3.5 years - 1120 Moz for 1.75 years No hurry to buy silver. Getting rid of the fiat is only a part, not the whole of the story. It's now better than 2011-2012. But two years of a decades peak price, hardly serves as a longterm reference no? Like things look now, a wait for $17-18 is a very reasonable goal. Maybe even lower. Time will tell. To take into account is that alot dumped, and in order to escape another round fiatbased theft, they will eventually have to buy back in. Talking about 5-10 years period here.
Speculation isnt a lottery with a fixed x% chance and no choice but to undergo/accept that chance. Speculation is foreseeing, the future starts from the past, and there is some data available that one can use to influence the outcome.
