If currencies value goes down, then everything goes up not just PM. What's the gain then, in terms of purchasing power? This is persistently ignored. I bought silver at $32. Suppose that the price would be driven back to there. Suppose that the prices of the stuff I wanna buy get also driven up a same % Then I won't be better of at that $32 'mathematical break even' (ex tax and premium) as at that $20 now. What difference does that $32 revisit then make for me? Zero.
A lot can happen in 3 months. Even more when the world is the way it is. I saw somewhere that Goldman Sachs is predicting 1.20 Euro-USD. Polny is still holding to his $2000 prediction. Says it's right on time.
I am again changing my underwear intra-daily after reading this chartist's view. The bottom line is - tune into the '5 point' triangle pattern that gold is currently completing - if it drops out the bottom at about 1270 it's uber-bearish. His own sentiment is plain - gold and the gold mining stocks are in an uncompleted bear market. If gold closes below 1270 I'll be inclined to sell one of my gold stocks at the least. I think that in the long term he is a gold bull, just that the ratio and correlation charts he examines suggest US dollar, bonds, and S&P stocks will continue stengthening, whereas the precious metals will continue to fade until a lower bottom is found http://www.kitco.com/ind/Tablish/20...-Currency-and-Precious-Metals-Chartology.html
Russia are making moves into the Ukraine and what has gold done? So much for the war/gold theory....it takes more than a single factor to move gold....all the stars will have to align to turn this baby from a bear back to a bull
People learn from errors, especially if they cost them where they worked for. And it's damn good they do.
I am currently subscribed to Rambus' service, but will be dropping it very soon. Other than staying with the downtrend Dec 2012 to mid 2013 in his Kamakazi portfolio, his trades have lost money. His Model Portfolio hasn't made any money in its two years of existence. Rambus' pm sentiments change depending upon what the gold stocks are doing. If you are stressing because of what Rambus is writing, you are over a year too late. The best analysis I have seen in the last couple of years is also the simplest. Itsamystery or something similar mentioned early last year that there was a correlation between the performance of gold in USD and the yen/usd. That correlation is still very strong.
Well the dollar value of Yen and its supposed correlation to gold in usd is included in the article. It reminds me of the Kyle Bass viewpoint discussed on another thread. However while supremely confident of the negative outlook for the Yen, Kyle Bass is a gold bull I think. The only advice Kyle Bass had for the small investor/speculator was "short Yen, long Gold". In the Rambus chart he interprets the $Yen as having fallen out of a possible triangle within a bearish falling wedge. He also sees the whole $Yen thing as perched on the neckline of a mega bearish head and shoulders pattern. All with a bit of a question mark but it's the cumulative negative picture that is hard to throw off when you read his commentaries. The more so when I think that 'philosophically' he is a gold bull. The charts of gold in various currencies where it has fallen below support trendlines then back tested to confirm resistance also made an impact on me
Rambus claims to be agnostic re markets and says everything is in the charts. His awareness of the yen gold correlation must be recent as I don't recall seeing it in the one plus years I was reading his commentary and I know the correlation was pointed out to him earlier this year in the member forum. Rambus has been so bad on his trades, that I have pretty much stopped reading his commentaries. Kyle Bass's advice re gold in yen was in answer to a position that would be held for ten years. That wasn't his normal investing advice.
I found the article (July 21) that gave me the idea that Rambus is 'philosophically' a gold bull despite his recent pessimism about the shorter or medium term. You'd be right though that he is fundamentally 'agnostic' and is a charting purist - at least in his public comments. About Kyle Bass - yes I remember the "short Yen, long Gold" comment from a talk that I saw on Youtube where he almost reluctantly said that in answer to a question from the audience. I can't see how it would need a 10 year outlook though when he seems to believes the demise of the Yen is overdue So Rambus is showing a chart which suggests Gold is positively correlated to $Yen, and Kyle Bass's comment and viewpoints on gold and Yen imply that he thinks they are negatively correlated. I'm probably just spreading my own confusion. Before reading Rambus's articles I was mildly bullish in sentiment. An In-Depth Look at The Chartology of Gold By Rambus, July 21, 2014 "I would like to show you one last long term monthly chart for gold that has all the chart patterns that I've followed through the years. I call this chart, JUST ANOTHER BRICK IN THE WALL, because it has to be one of the most beautiful bull markets in recorded history. I've said this before and I'll say it again, they will look back at this gold bull market in the future and study it like we study the 1929 crash. From a Chartology perspective this is as good as it gets when you see one consolidation pattern form on top of the next, each one higher than the last. There are several bullish rising wedges that generally show up in strong bull markets. There was also a bullish expanded falling wedge that was one of the consolidation patterns made in 2008. As you can see the last chart pattern at the top of the chart is now three years in the making and is by far the biggest and longest running trading ranges for this bull market. It too is an expanding falling wedge. Is it going to be just another brick in the wall and lead gold to new all time highs or have we seen the end of gold's bull market. Stay tuned as we follow the price action to where ever it leads us. All the bestRambus" Source: http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/depth-look-chartology-gold As an aside - scanning the articles by Rambus reminded me of another correlation that he described where rises in TLT:GLD are mirrored by falls in GLD, and TLT had apparently started a rising phase. TLT being some 20 year treasurys etf, and GLD being Gold etf. Seeing this a couple of weeks ago is what first set off the colonic spasms. I don't give bonds a thought normally but grasp how they'd be rivals to gold. So this ratio TLT:GLD is still rising when I checked today.
finiicky, you can find a Rambus posting to support almost any position you want as his postings have been all over the place. Friday morning he was long the triple short miners and by late Friday afternoon he switched to long the triple long miners. Had Rambus paid attention to the declining volume on those short etfs, he would have made the switch days earlier and prevented yet another once profitable position to end up as a loss. Rambus is a talented chartist and well intentioned, but that hasn't translated to his interpretation of the charts being profitable. No reason to debate this further and I would be more worried about Trader Dan's gold postings than those of Rambus. Edit From memory. Kyle Bass' answer was to the last question of the video and he said long gold, started to walk away and then returned to the podium and said long gold in yen. Based upon the way he answered the question, it did not appear that he had put a lot of previous thought into such a question.
Which futures-based ETF's you talk about? By the way, decades chart versus days-trading? Some weeks ago I came across a "Trader Dan" story. http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-56015-agressive-hedge-fund-buying-plagued-silver.html [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1798_silver_cot_dan_norcini.jpg][/imgz] One may wonder the difference between what they say and what they do themselves? Maybe their "advice" lags a profit cycle on their actions.
I'm not as smart as you guys and looking at these charts just confuses me. If the market is being manipulated as so many say then what is the purpose of charting? Surely you cant predict via charts how and when manipulation takes place?
The manipulation is live here, just read the posts about to da moon and through da floor. Charts only show it afterwards. Post Mortem.
I am glad you like my reply blesblok. Fact No. 1. blesbok is actually a lot smarter than he gives himself credit for. Fact No. 2. there is manipulation on a small scale for quick profit but it will not change the overall trend. Complete manipulation is right up there with the sasquatch and yowies.
Many small can achieve the same as a few big. How can one measure small and big? Well, idea: compare accumulated coin sales with 1000 ounce bar sales. I already did that over I think 9 years, and funny: these ended up exactly the same. And I have a theory to explain that: the silver market, or more accurate: the speculative part of it, is a zero sum market. A piece of metal doesnt produce anything. So if the so called "Big Boys" wanna suck out some money, a few small fish won't suffice. So, they throttle their presence (read: position), as measured in 1000 ounce bars, to the coin etc sales, as measured in ounces. From this perspective have both "sides" an equal impact on the trend.
Well, there went the triangle that Rambus posited. Price dropped out the bottom 'rail' big time on higher than average volume - 1st daily chart. The 'triangle did not not quite get a third touch on the top rail nor quite get one at the bottom before falling through. A pattern on a chart being not a fact, but sometimes a useful fabrication. Now we're left to hope that the old low of 1180 holds - 2nd weekly chart. His target looks to be around 840 if that triangle fails. Gold stocks will be gut wrenching today Source: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Tablish/20...-Currency-and-Precious-Metals-Chartology.html
