It's good that price was driven down yesterday, that means that there will be a 40 cent price difference between fridays COT report and the previous, a nice span to measure the futures market position drop, giving an idea of what the short term future price bottom may be. Not that I have any euro's to swap on that term.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=834615499883543 one penguin ate silver fish, and piggy back another silver fish back home
It drops like a ball. Every drop following by a bounce. SOS Sell On Strength. Until their stocks are depleted. RINSE And then the Negative Bears will pop up here again. Sitting Ready To Buy Back In. Talking about Lower. AND REPEAT
painting the prices on a silver tape is the new fix looks like. there is no adrenaline rush left in this silver 'restlest' metal prices left.
At the moment $18 has a very good chance. A much better chance than so far since 2010. If you are not interested in the why, stop reading here ===================================== Last week, 12/08, at a spot price of $19.98, the futures/forward price share within the spot/cash price was 43726. That is alike people bought 43726 x 5000 = 218,630,000 ounces silver, and drove the price up accordingly, yet they never ask delivery, the orders just get dumped because they merely served as a hedge against us, speculators. Now, a multidecade position bottom is around 7000. We saw that a couple times 2013+ and back end 199x or begin 2001 not sure, the Asian Contagion crisis or what was it. A 'normal' bottom, in recent years, is 15000. So let's assume here a 'normal' bottom. That means 43726 - 15000 = 28726 positions, x 5000 = 143,630,000 ounces. A worlds total annual supply/demand is 1,000,000,000 so this is 14% of it. Now, in the past I found two ways (futures movements averages and sales figure comparisons) of estimating the amount ounces that a price dollar represents. That was 70 Moz. So 143,630,000 conforms to around 2 price dollars. So like it is now, and assuming a 'normal' futures position bottom, the price can easily be driven to $18. UNLESS we, stackers and any investment vehicle based buyers, will load up those 143 Moz again. I doesn't know if they can / will do. If they shot all their powder in last uptrend, then NOT. I'm just 1 peon on the silver market. I don't control others eheh! But the evolution of the futures market position, and trends of silver stocks, will give a clue. =====================================
For those that don't like to read: stop HERE. ========================= Another element that gives a clue to help in timing purchases: Look at this: http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1 You see there that every downtrend typically lasts a fat 3 months. This element is the case since 2011. The current downtrend is now 1.5 months old. So another 1.5 months to go. ========================= This was Pirocco from the SS Observation Laboratory.
Pirocco, what do you expect the price of silver to be though the next decade? Go back to the long-term (last 100 years) price of $6-7/oz, be double that (12-15), stay among the range it has been over the last years (18-20), be higher (30), or be considerably higher (e.g. 50)?