Would you buy gold now?

Discussion in 'Gold' started by TreasureHunter, Jul 30, 2014.

  1. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Isn't it obvious that 'overpriced' is used on a term that is longer than a moment/day?
    Gold was $1900 on 22 august 2011 and 5 september 2011.
    Your 'present market forces' (actually some people making bad decisions for themselves and good decisions for others) brought that price.
    The subject is not the price mechanism. The subject is the present price relative to an average price over a period.
     
  2. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    It's much more than 'no guarantee', silvers average price quadrupled over the past decade-now, and unless someone can show me industrial production silver demand rose that way too, industrial production was just a minor element.

    About gold:
    Net Government Sales (positive means it's [SUPPLY], negative means it's [DEMAND])
    1997 326 <- selling away higher prices when we don't want to buy
    1998 363
    1999 477
    2000 479
    2001 520
    2002 547
    2003 620
    2004 479
    2005 663
    2006 370
    2007 484
    2008 236
    2009 30
    2010 77
    2011 -455 <- buying away lower prices when we want to buy
    2012 -544.1
    2013 -368.6

    Recycling
    1997 631
    1998 1108
    1999 620
    2000 619
    2001 749
    2002 872
    2003 985
    2004 878
    2005 897
    2006 1126
    2007 956
    2008 1217
    2009 1672 <- recycling +100% (silver only +25%) probably due to gold stocks being way bigger than price ratio suggests.
    2010 1653
    2011 1611.9
    2012 1590.8
    2013 1371.4

    ETFs and similar products
    1997 0
    1998 0
    1999 0
    2000 0
    2001 0
    2002 3
    2003 39
    2004 133
    2005 208
    2006 260
    2007 253
    2008 321
    2009 617
    2010 367.7
    2011 154.0
    2012 279.1 <- accumulated to 2634.8
    2013 -880.8 <- 1/3 dumped, 2/3 to go (silver ETFs held their stock so 3/3 to go)

    Yes, silvers price is more volatile. More people making bad decisions, and others taking advantage of it, to then draining off the money away to for ex the gold market.
    That's why it is so important to be very cautious when deciding silver purchase moments. If people would, the price would stabilize more, and alot more money may stay.
     
  3. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    The votes so far:

    13 YES
    1 "DEPENDS"
    5 NO
     
  4. Andyt

    Andyt New Member

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    Yes, just bought some.
    Gold seems more addictive than silver. Easier to hide from the missus
     
  5. SilverKendo

    SilverKendo New Member

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    Agreed 100%. I don't really hide mine from her, she just doesn't show any interest in my "coin collection" and I don't volunteer information. Seems like a win win:)
     
  6. Peter

    Peter Well-Known Member

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    In a crash I think that gold will go down at first.
    Good to buy then.
    Thats the best option.
    But will it be available (I think so)
    Where to to hold the cash while waiting?
    Maybe the bank will no longer have it.
     
  7. Torcan

    Torcan New Member Silver Stacker

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    so YES
    same date, every month
    some days I get more, some days I get less
    It all works out in the end
     
  8. pastey

    pastey Member

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    Yep - price is stable @ ~$1300USD, however as valuecreator alluded to - look for long term stability and realistic growth that is ANNUAL (sorry for the caps).
    Theses are single figure percentages @~5% (annual growth factor).

    Unless your are betting on another GFC - don't get your hopes up.
    (And IMO I don't think that wars of any kind other than total obliteration will effect the price of gold significantly).

    <disclaimer>
    IMO
    </disclaimer>
     
  9. Stax

    Stax New Member

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    I started out only buying Pure gold Britannia's ( No Capitol Gains Tax ) then bought 1 2013 sovereign.
    Bad move ;)

    I got interested in Mint marks and different designs.
    I now have quite a collection, with some rare coins as well.
    Earliest so far is an 1842 shield.
    And
    1909 Canada
    1856 Sydney half sov
    1867 Sydney full sov
    1989 4 coin proof set
    1984 quinty PROOF
    etc,etc

    But..

    I only buy old sovereign's generally (pre 1930).
    Dare I say it........... I don't trust the modern day ones, too copper looking for me

    So, I suppose I buy 'em for the numismatic value, as well as the gold content.
    And they look sweet when all laid out together (very rarely)


    But, I may well but a couple of Britannia's today, as no interesting sovs around ATM.
    I try not to buy coins other than UK issue, as they would incur CGT when sold, and also, maybe.......... induce collecting fever.

    I'm under no illusions with the sovs, some are common dates, bought for normal price.
    These would get sold if conditions/circumstances dictated.
    The rare ones I'll keep till I'm old and grey (2014 1/4 oz proof 25th anniversary Kangaroo anyone ???) :D
    Sort of a pension plan no bank/government can meddle with ;)

    Everything I buy is as an investment.
    I own the coins, they don't own me.
     
  10. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Or 'locked' until further notice.
    I have family here that has 6000 euro locked since october 2011. There are 800.000 others in the same situation.
     
  11. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNGe7iK1O-4[/youtube] :D
     
  12. Jimmy1986

    Jimmy1986 Active Member Silver Stacker

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    What do you mean by 'locked' pirocco? Like they cannot withdraw from the bank?
     
  13. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Yes, it's 'freezed'. Basically it was promoted as a savings account, with state guarantee / no risk.
    In reality, it was a shares-alike system, so called used only for 'local economy' and 'social' projects, and heavily promoted/benefitted by a political chain.
    However, during the 2008 crisis, they used the money 'behind the scenes' to rescue a system bank, one where State departments (including towns, villages) parked their money.
    Late 2011, the second EU crisis, the system bank still failed in the end, and the central planners (in the name of the local country ofc) took it over (read: bail it out), the very day of the year that the ability for the cooperative shares holders / account holders to withdraw their money, ended. In order to allow the local politician to get away with it (in the face of the public), the EU central planning level intervened, and 'suspend' (ofc they were happy to be forbidden) state guarantee. The EU legal case lasted a couple years and, very predictable, only some month after the countries local elections passed, the EU level forbade state guarantee.
    Yet, it's still 'not sure', according to local policians. That's what they do: putting things on the long term. By the time the story finally ends, most people will already have gotten used to the idea of having lost the money. And that was their very goal from the beginning.
     
  14. Taz03

    Taz03 Member

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    Yes; the yellow metal is highly addictive!
     
  15. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    The votes so far:

    17 YES (73.91 %)
    1 "DEPENDS" (4.35 %)
    5 NO (21.75 %)
     
  16. Brzt

    Brzt Active Member

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    Yes, but I like gold. I buy gold because I like buying gold and I like owning gold not for capital gains. If I have capital gains that's even better.
     
  17. pastey

    pastey Member

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    If I earned more I would buy more gold instead of silver.
    That said my favorite metal is platinum and if you ever worked with it you would know why.
    But I agree gold properly finished bullion coins and proofs are pretty awesome - especially those stuck by PM.
    But being pastey and all - metals of the white kind look better on me as far as jewelry is concerned.
     
  18. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    The votes so far:
    19 YES
    1 "DEPENDS"
    5 NO
     
  19. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    You can have great capital gains with the price oscillations - provided that you bought low enough ;)
     
  20. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Why not shout it out loud: why if platinum your favourite?
     

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