Is the gold bubble popping is this just a "correction" phase? Silver charts show the classical asset bubble burst phases and it seems like it's towards the end of the "bubble pop" phenomenon. But I'm not so sure about gold. If it was a correction, it might soon be over and it'll start growing again. But if it's a bubble, then it has way more space to go down! Which one could it be for gold? BUBBLE or CORRECTION?
The people who have been forecasting a steady downward grind of the gold price (with some hiccups no doubt) through 2014 seem to be the most sensible. From a previous comment: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...ale-sees-2017-2019-gold-price-average-of-825/
I saw it differently for $Silver. EMA50 = $20.29, EMA200 = $20.79 ....... note that these are Exponential (Not regular MA) Even after the smack down, it was above both EMA50 & EMA200. Silver will perform well, I think. Even better than Gold this year.
Panic Station: The gold price is included in all the asset bubbles, in fact the entire money system is on a bubble. Get out while the going is good! For the moment holding cash is better than being exposed to the gold price. When the asset bubbles collapse including paper gold even having money in the bank will be risky. Physical coins and notes will be slightly better than bank deposited cash but that bubble money will then move into physical items like productive businesses and houses and physical gold. Physical gold is not in a bubble, it's just that it's currently priced the same as the paper gold asset bubble. The only question that remains is when to move from cash to physical gold, once the barbarians are at the gate it will be too late, better to be a couple of years too early then a day late. "This leaves the entire Status Quo increasingly vulnerable to any sort of credit shock; either rising rates or a decline in the rate of debt expansion will cause the system to implode." http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/why-were-doomed-interest-and-debt.html
This last week's price action was 'predicted' with close to perfection by Lara from Gold Elliot Wave. She is still adamant it is in a large corrective mode and that it will bottom at $975 or so very soon. Bo Polny says that the final low is due late (Northern) summer although the low of June 2013 @ $1180 will hold. His low or this new low will come close to that figure. I don't see Gold hitting anywhere near $700.00 even though it did in 2008. There has been far to much money printing and thus the cost of inflation has upped this figure imo. "So even if one has concerns about the global economy, "I don't think buying gold is going to be your solution," he said. "I don't think that gold is going to be your safe haven and your savior." Maybe true short term and in the context of a generally bad economy world wide although when Faith is completely lost in all Government where does one run too? ......Pm's.
If gold hits 780 it will be in paper sales in a plummeting market like 1987 on steroids and physical will be as scarce as IMF honesty. And when the dust clears ......
Pound-cost averaging just means I buy a little more each month on the way down... and my net worth increases a little each month on the way up. The price only really matters to me if and when I come to sell and - in the timeframe I'm thinking of, I'm sure the value will be higher than it is now, what with this international fiat race to the bottom.
So, we should be seein' 700-800 $. I personally believe the bottom would be 900-1000 $, but wouldn't excluded 700-800 $. It would then have to shoot up due to production costs.
Often times after I do a lot of research on a topic of interest I look at what the price of things are and I judge emtionally if I think they are a fair price or not. Nothing complex or scientific; I come to what I FEEL is a fair price. My heart of heart tells me silver is at a fair price between $19 and $21 USD per oz. So right now I feel like silver is priced fair and is worth buying. Gold I feel like the $1,000 to $1,100 range is more correct than the current spot price of $1,307. This is purely based on looking at an oz. of each and saying what would I feel most okay buying right now. Based on this I feel like gold is coming down into a more fair price and silver is just right. I know $200-$300 an oz isn't a huge difference but I would feel like I am getting a fair deal paying closer to <$1,100. Based on my gut feeling this should be a correction putting gold back to where it belongs.
I wouldn't be surprised to see gold drop under 1,200 $ this year. Prolly in October? Traditionally bearish period... I don't see many bullish signals out there.
Sideways surfin'. Although there are some bullish predictions by some - including David Morgan, some technical analysis videos I had recently come across - will post them soon. I would be curious if the 1976 scenario/something similar could happen. Gold corrected 37 % so far, I don't think it's a "total bubble", because gold would have to get "totally destroyed" - like crash down to the early 2000's price. So right now I expects some sideways surfin'.
