Some clarification on what who said what when. I have only tagged people cited above with non vested interest in Gold sales for obvious reasons, Peter shiff, James Turk et al. Bo Polny has said that this mini rally is nothing but a short squeeze and a false breakout. There is going to be a summer low although the June 2013 low of $1180 will hold. Towards end of year(could be sooner) he expects a moon shot to $2000. $10,000 min. by 2020/21. Gold/Silver stocks will do even better than physical. For this to happen I think if Russia is forced to intervene in Ukraine then America responding would cause this spike, I cannot see anything else forcing up Gold to this level so quickly. Lara with her Elliott Wave has said a top will form at the 1340 level then a big wave down is expected for a final 4th correction. 90% that it will hit $1180 and 60-70% that it will hit under $1000. Armstrong has said for quite a while now that we may breach the $900-1000 level in late 2015 depending on this year's final close. Larry Edelson has been all over the place in the last year. He has said that this June low is the final low, for what it's worth. Finally if the Fed announces at their next meeting that they might bring forward their suggested late 2015 interest rate rise to perhaps this year, then this will destroy Gold in the short term and bring about this low around the corner.
Thanks The Road Home, that sort of precise round-up is what I'm looking for. I noticed that the tech analyst Louise Yamada is now seeing possibilities for a positive turnaround for gold and silver: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...d_&_Silver_May_Finally_Be_Turning_Around.html I won't be taking the faintest interest in what Larry Edelson says as I read about his poor record: http://forums.silverstackers.com/to...-predicts-125-silver-and-500-gold-page-1.html In 2010 he tipped at least $2,300 Gold by March 2013, and the collapse of the USD by 2012 and initiation of a world currency.
I have this feeling in my bones that gold currently has the wind behind it for a little while longer. The $1340 target could loom up soon.
Lara still making videos. I thought she stopped after nearly every video she made was wrong. Good on her for not giving up, I'm sure she will get a few right in time. :lol:
A broken clock is right twice a day ? Will get it right eventually - but it does not look like it will be now.
My god, Lara seems to be disappearing up her own a'hole, but I think her view is under pressure as the hourly chart changes. This is not a good advertisement for Elliott Wave if so. Good luck to anyone coming to grips with her reasoning. Published yesterday July 10. At least one of her upper resistance lines on an hourly chart scenario looks broken to the upside by tonight's activity, but another version looks intact still. Gold after all has failed tonight to smash through the 1343 level in question. Can anyone translate what the major outcome is she's now predicting? Just the meat and potatoes thanks.. http://www.safehaven.com/article/34460/gold-elliott-wave-technical-analysis
Pete Schiff's Gold Videocast: Gold's 2014 Half-Time Report Published on Jul 9, 2014 3:17 -- "The price of gold is putting in a bottom, supported by the mining stocks. They led the market down in 2013, and are now leading it up." [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZ4cDcpmjvQ[/youtube]
Have you seen this forecast? Another Elliott wave interpretation, but this one starts the primary wave count by going right back to 1970. At least I can understand most of what he's saying; can't say that for Lara. He thinks we're in the midst of the 5th and last major wave of a secular bull market that originated in 1970. He expects this last 5th wave to be extended. Gold has already completed the current large correction within the 5th major wave. But check out his target scenarios. Four possible terminal targets are discussed: $2787, $24100 lol, $8352, and $13660. I think I'll go conservative and count on $8352. His website link is worth clicking on to have a read. Source: http://www.kitco.com/ind/TraderMC/2014-07-28-Gold-Elliott-Wave-Projection-Since-1970.html
Excerpted from an article at silverbearcafe that was linked on the Silver board. I like Quarterly charts (each price bar = 3 months), The time I like them is when there's been an ultra long trend and looking for signs of continuation or reversal. The image is a bit crowded in that the main chart is monthly. It is the small inset chart of Gold in Quarterly periods that interests, and I see it the same was as the chartist. He says, "The Qtrly chart could not be any clearer in begging for a lower low under the 1200 area of support". The rest of his gold chart features: 'bearish spacing' on the weekly, steepened rate of descent on the daily, compound the negative outlook. Throw in that Silver has already broken its major support level. So a strong picture suggesting that $1180 is going to go, and then maybe $1,000 likeliest target? Source: http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.14/nocontest.html
Peter, Silver has already broken its major support measured in AUD as well as USD. I expect the same will happen with Gold should it break US$1180 support. The weakening AUD will not prevent a breakdown of Gold in AUD if the break happens in USD at US$1180. AS goes Silver so goes Gold, should support of gold at US1180 give way. Just my opinion. Silver weekly 3 year chart converted to AUD: Support in AUD has already given way despite currency weakness
jsmineset.com Jim Sinclair puts it succinctly. p.s. Spoofing . An illegal practice in which an investor with a long position on a security makes a buy order for that security and immediately cancels it without filling the order. Spoofing tends to increase the price of that security as other investors may then issue their own buy orders, which increases the appearance of demand. The first investor then closes his/her long position by selling the security at the new, higher price. Spoofing is a form of market manipulation. See also: Pump and dump.
Shanghai gold surprise in store The Australian OCT 06, 2014 Robin Bromby Precis: Keith Goode reckons slower purchases through Hong Kong are due to rerouting through new Shanghai exchange Up to 1912, Shanghai accounted for about 60 per cent of all gold traded around the world, he implies it seeks preeminence in gold trade again Goode suspects that China does not intend to allow price falls like -$200 in April 2013 to happen again. He believes China is still on course to make the yuan a reserve currency, backed by gold. Goode says Russia is accelerating gold buying. "With the increased level of co-operation between Russia and China, does Russia know China's intentions and is adding gold reserves as fast as possible?"
Charles Nenner - it is deflation that's gonna happen in USA Completely out of the stockmarket, and in cash Expecting a low in gold before long and will switch cash to gold Charles Nenner - Were Out Of The Stock Market And Moving Cash To Gold
Gold Bulls Richard Russell and Bo Polny Let's flirt with optimism again. It's an indication of how despondent I've become about gold's behaviour when I'd leave a statement like this from Richard Russell to hang for 24 hours Richard Russell - We Just Saw Ultimate Bottom In Gold & Silver KWN - October 7, 2014 "Gold I can't prove it yet but I believe the last decline in gold knocked out the last of the gold bugs and gave gold, technically, a clean slate. I believe we saw the ultimate bottom of the gold bear market on Friday, and (yesterday) the whole universe of gold is higher, and closing at its high. Everything I have said about gold is also true about silver. I believe this is the time to invest in gold and silver if you have not done so already. If I am correct, gold should act like the release of a compressed spring. Gold above 1300 would make me even more certain of my opinion, and gold above 1350 would represent a major buy signal." And Bo Polny is weirdly confident still and makes a big deal of the marginally higher lows that gold has made while forming its 'triple bottom' This guy is absolutely confident that gold will not break below the Dec 1181 low. It just cannot do that because such event would break a long term 'master cycle', and er that aint gonna happen, lol First low 2013 in June, that low came in at $1179. Last December gold stopped at $1181. On Friday gold dropped to close at $1191. "on Saturday I said, "there's absolutely nothing to worry about, because what will not happen is that the December low at 1181 will not (sic) break." BO POLNY ON GOLD MON 6 OCT, 2014 genius
Gold price expected to fall further before end of calendar year as investors spend up on currencies ABC Rural PrintEmailFacebookMore services1 Posted yesterday at 3:49pmWed 8 Oct 2014, 3:49pm A West Australian gold mine Photo: A West Australian gold mine. ANZ predicts the price of gold will decline The price of gold will continue to fall for the remainder of the year and could lose another US$30 an ounce, according to ANZ commodity strategist Victor Thianpiriya. He says the bottom of the market will be reached in the coming three months. Mr Thianpiriya says that while 2014 as a whole has been quite stable, the last couple of weeks have been distorted with investors spending more money on US currency and less on physical gold. Audio: ANZ commodity strategist Victor Thianpiriya explains why he believes gold prices will continue to fall in 2014 (ABC Rural) "I mean, the last month has been particularly tough, especially with prospects again out of the US looking a little bit better. "That's given investors a reason to buy the US dollar, but it's important to know that it's not just gold that's borne the brunt of the US dollar strength." Mr Thianpiriya predicts the price of gold by the end of the year will be sitting at around US$1,180. "We still hav ABC news
Maybe I am dumb; gold is at around $1220 right now. Why would $1350 be a major buy signal? Shouldn't people be buying now while it is $130 less than this so called buy signal? In fact shouldn't people have been buying all the way down into the $1180s? I know I was. You can't catch the falling knife at the bottom but I'd rather grab it while it is falling than when it is shooting back up. Maybe that's just me? Advice welcome.
It is all about probabilities and expectancies. A trade is only profitable if price moves higher. If you grab the knife while it is still falling, you are behind from the start, and have also made the often expensive assumption that price will soon turn (as has been prevalent in the past on this forum). Statistically, this is a losing strategy.
The thing is, unless you're an oracle, you can never be sure that a serious decline is over. The decline in gold is more than serious; it is now routinely referred to as a bear market. So sure, if you know that 1180 is the bottom you do all your buying there, but if you don't know, you look for a confirmation. That confirmation might be a higher low - for some that would be sufficient if they are confident about gold. Others will need a higher high following a higher low. That looks to be the sort of confirmation buy signal that Russell is wanting as 1350 is the prior significant high.
