I don't understand how that could be a positive... Exactly! There is nothing wrong in investing in silver, but since it is not income producing (unlike a flat for example) you need to buy it at a cheap price for it make sense. Now it's still 3 times the historic average. Far to expensive in my opinion. But wait until it drops to 8-9$ and then it makes sense. No, it's not a terrible investment. Only at present prices. When prices drop it's a good investment to diversify (and for fun). That's because you have only heard the positives, because you only listen to silver bugs. Most people who are not silver bugs wouldn't come here to post, because they hang out in other places. Some people here also might have an agenda, to push the prices high (as Pirocco). The thing is that if you really like silver, and are in for the long-term, why not hope for a price drop? If it drops to $10/oz, you can buy double as much!! Yes, they might (and are like to) even be lower. No, no other reason for expecting prices to drop. I yet have to hear a decent reason as to why prices shouldn't drop to the historic average. Industrial uses have probably dropped because there is much less demand from the film industry. I haven't because I have no idea how to do that. Also, $14/oz might be next year. Can I make a short position with a one-year deadline? How much would that cost?
*I think you can do CFDs and u can leverage upto 20 times ur capital, ie very speculative. or you can leverage less with means less risk and less cost, never done it so don't know
If it has been falling it doesn't mean it's undervalued! If it has been falling for 100 years, it's very likely it will keep falling!! I am sure there are many products that have been falling in real term over the years. One of them is food. It doesn't mean they are undervalued. It means there is a surplus, and people don't value it much.
Food has great potential. Too bad u cant really stack it. I would invest in agriculture if I know how. What do u suppose the best investment is right now
About 14 months ago here on this forum I had suggested $14 silver. I'm actually a little more bullish now then I was then because I thought the massive sour sentiment last year would have pulled silver down to $14 if it can get there at all. Only time will tell if my $14 mark was good or not....my bet now is that it won't get there. .
When silver drops below $19 and many people capitulate, switching to a bearish outlook and agreeing the price will drop to $16 or even $14 and so hold off on their purchases, then that's the time that silver will begin its rise, never to see the current lows again.
Don't tell that to my wife, with 300 cans of soup, 200# of pasta, 10G of Mayo. I won't even think to tell you about our Rice. I will be the LAST fat man after the apocalypse. -bw
I will start my attack run at $16, no need to be greedy At AUD$16 I have plenty of room to dollar average downwards knowing that over the longer term, my main entry pricing will offer lots of protection given that all the previous 'perma bulls' will have been decimated and the market will be in the hands on the investment professionals.
I switched to a bearish outlook at that $22 some months ago, when it was like politically not correct to say something bearish.
That's also what I am thinking about. Start stacking at US$15/oz, and keep stacking on the way down. I expect bottom price to be $5-6. As the price drops I will buy more, and will get a price average of $9. That's fine with me. I will keep it until I die (40 years from now), and then give it to my daughter (or the grand-kids ).
Sounds like a great plan - start buying at $15 when you reckons it will be at $5 so that you can get a $9 average. Brilliant.
Silver to bottom at $5-6? (Wow) and do u also expect petrol to go below 30 cents a litre and average housing prise to go under $80 k? And do you stack cash under ur bed or something
No. The reason being the price of housing has gone up and up (in real terms) over the last decades. This is the figure over the last 44 years in the US: http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/ and you can see that the real price of housing (in the US) has gone up by 30% over the last 44 years. Why? Because houses are useful, and increases in salaries (in real terms, which happen because of increase in productivity) end up in increases in housing prices. This is why investing in housing is safer than investing in silver (or gold). The price of oil has gone up even more, both because of increasing scarcity and because oil is a cartel (OPEC controls about 40% of its output, if I remember correctly). Silver is a commodity and a useless luxury product. As a commodity, demand goes up and down, but is more or less stable, so what drives the price of silver is the demand from the luxury sectors. When the price goes up, people buy it because they think it will go up even more. But one day arrives when they realise that the price is clearly too high, and they start selling. Then they panic and think it will lose all its value, and the price goes well below "what it should be worth". That's the normal cycle. We had one of such bubbles in 1980, and one in 2008, and there will be more in the future. So you can see why the price of silver hasn't gone up by more than inflation (if you exclude the two bubbles) during the last 100 years, while the price of housing and oil have (oil is used up when extracted, silver not. There is now much much more silver around than 100 years ago). I hope this clarifies it. Please let me know if you need further information. P.S.: By the way, try to find out what is the difference between real prices and nominal prices.
