I have been stacking for a while now.... But lately I have had this despondency feeling about silver. May be I should go out and get some more bars.... May be Accumulation phase could be coming. Who else is feeling the same? Where do you guys think we are in the Market cycle?
No real reason why it should take a run up as far as I know. I would wait for a sign that shows investors fleeing to gold, its lure as a safe haven is shot, no one gives a shit about it at the moment. Personally I'm out, i want a market crash before i jump back in. Stay in cash would be my suggestion. Bank may pay you peanuts but it's better than holding a depreciating asset.
I love buying silver/gold/platinum but can't just pour my savings into it without expecting reasonable growth. Last time I did that the coordinated attack left me shattered. If you're a stacker and want more all the time then do what you have to do. When looking at silver prices I think of three main influences, firstly the state and future of the financial world, is there going to be another financial crisis? The industrial demand, no crisis, economies suffering. And lastly the price, is relatively cheap at this point? I made my first big buy decision when I was young and dumb and suffered a lot, hoping I can play the game a little better this time. /enddrunkenpost
listen to what this guy is saying (start at 4:00). this is all you need to know.... [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3R3HRq6BTE[/youtube]
I'd agree with you but then we'd both be wrong. Please expand on your opinion so I have more meat to reply to.
Bartering with cash still today's norm right. I'm one of those crazies that believes the "value" of the dollar will someday be worth as much as the paper it's printed on. Devaluation has run it's course. Now holding on to cash instead of something of true value, one is only asking to lose out.
You read too much vested interest articles. It's the authors of those that sell the price down after you paid the higher price they caused. Makes clear what to do: only buy when most of them sold. And before they buy back in. That's what I learnt, by own research not by ed steer/silverdoctors/zerohedge/seekingalpha (the latter I still give some chance but it's waning). See silver as any asset. See a dollar as any asset. Ask yourself which one has the most risk of dropping relative to others, within your savings time horizon. Judge risk based on longterm trends from the past. This all sounds obvious as hell, but look at 2011 and 2012, where people had no problem average prices that were 3-4 times those of 2008 and 6-10 times those of 2000. With other assets price lagging far behind. Yet, they paid them, and even believed stories of 100 folds. April 2011, where people paid $49 for an ounce, with $100 and > in mind. All those King Cashes, are losing every year in that condition. In order for King Cash to succeed, they need others willing to hesitate, and preferably sell at lower prices. If those got smarter (and recent years must certainly teached some lessons), King Cash becomes King of nothin'. See lower prices as an opportunity available in your time horizon. Your 'last time...' is a past, not a present. Things have changed. Much more sit now as King Cash, hoping for you to stay shattered.
Individuals buying all the gold they can get their hands on is also indicative of a bubble. That's just an alternative way of looking at it. We always hear stories that the gold price is about to explode upwards, that we'll be massively rich if we buy now and that the dollar will soon be worth nothing more than the paper it is printed on. I'm not saying it wont happen but it is hard to take these doomsday dollar predictions and promises of easy riches through precious metals seriously when we've been hearing them for so long. My feeling is that they are over-predicting the extent of price moves in the short term, but under-predicting how bad it could get longer term. Because the longer things go on as they are, the worse it will be for everyone wether you hold gold & silver or not.
I'll just bite my tongue then and say I don't understand the "stacker" mentality. Seems like a complete waste of purchasing power. To think civilized governments would allow their money to get to that stage is ludicrous, we'd find a solution way before cash became worthless. In this digital age we'd have blood on the streets if it got that bad.
Postage stamps up again.. anacdotal evidence of price inflation is all around us.. the bank option is plagued with reasons why not to; tiny interest yeilds potential cypress like savings theft paying tax on interest credited negative rate of return with inflation factored in missing the train on metals monetary crisis bank crisis economic crisis id be hedging my bet but dont rate banks as a good choice for the majority of my worth
All the 'premiums' I have paid on my 'Insurance policy' are safe and sound, and will be available to me when I so desire. What good or bad things the governments and Central banks do over the coming months and years is of little interest to me. Cash at bank is 'at call' and not tied up awaiting bad news. JMO OC
I don't deny inflation, it's happening and it sucks if your wage does not keep up with it. Currencies evolve with it though, as does a civil society - much better than we have in the past so don't bother bringing that up. I do not worry about hyperinflation, that's really what has stackers spooked for some reason, there is absolutely no risk of that happening in the near future if at all. Do you have any idea how much new money would have to be printed and circulated to cause that? it's an unimaginable number. You want to talk about negative rate of returns? stacking silver in 2011 and holding it as it falls like a brick because you have this idea that you haven't lost until you sell. Again, something I really fail to understand. You have lost 50% on your investment - you could have double the ounces if you bought now. Big loss due to bad decisions and a fear of cash. Missing the train on metals? impossible, you will not see another parabolic rise like we did in 2011. The violent drop after reaching $50 screwed any chance of a repeat and did major psychological damage. Sheep investors are dumb but they tend to have good memories once they have been burnt. Once we see real confidence return to the metals it'll be time to hop back in, you need to see terrible employment numbers coming out of the US before that happens - I wouldn't argue with that scenario being closer than most think. Alternatively we have another 2008 scenario and buy the dip. Ultimately buying regardless of the current price is not smart, picking bottoms is. That's a fact, whether you decide to lie to yourself and say otherwise is up to you. If you're scared by banks (which you shouldn't be if you're living in Australia) then store cash on your property. If you're savvvy enough to find other investment vehicles then no doubt do that as well. I just think stacking metals isn't the best option right now. I think markets are overvalued, something has got to give. That is when you watch gold for a sign and buy. I do like silver but at the end of the day it has to be making me money or it's useless.
Yes, despondency would describe my mental state as well. Good time to be buying for those who have just started probably- not all at once though. But for those who've been in for years its pretty much gloom and boredom stretching out month after month. I'm mildly optimistic we had the major low June 2013, but I've been wrong before with silver/gold so just registering my sentiment
Swifteagle, I hear you. I think the despondency comes from expectations that perhaps have not been met and in a lot of cases crushed. The fact is nobody knows for sure what is going to happen. History tells us every fiat currency in the past has failed as will the current ones. However, as true as they will fail another will emerge. There are so many possibilities as to how this could play out you cannot afford to put all your eggs in one basket. Personally, my bullion holding is in "A" Mint in allocated and unallocated form(Safe enough for me). I know a lot of stacker purist shun at this, but it works fine for me, and i'm not going to get stressed out about theft from my home or how the hell to store the stuff. Selling is easy if and when I decide to do so. I do not fully subscribe to the doomsday theory, but fully understand it is possible. I have assessed the risk on my own research and understand we are part of a game and that how I intend on playing it. If your really unsure you should probably wait until you are. For my PM physical fix, I see myself as a collector and not a stacker, in as much that I am not too bothered by premiums and enjoy the design and story that goes with what I purchase physically. I prefer quality over quantity. That's not to say I don't do my research on price, just that I care not for where spot price is at every hour of every day. Much less stressful, much more enjoyable. There is mush noise swifteagle, you are right to doubt, there is a lot of conflicting interest out there. For me it's 1/3 equities, 1/3 cash, 1/3 PM's (for the moment). In answer to your question, I belief the price has a little further downside. We are very near the cost price of the stuff, but it can go below, well below for that matter. I keep on buying though, up or down, just so long as I have my 1/3 insurance, I sleep well. Log term, I'm comfortable enough that the old relic will shine again! Be sure though - "The winter is coming"
well at least I am not the only one feeling a bit dejected by this market. I did manage to sell a good portion of my stack at $38, which I am happy about. I have some cash available but I am undecided what to do. 1. A part of me says, this could be a good accumulation phase that I should take advantage of.... 2. Silver is under performing, therefore I should sell it and invest somewhere else for the mean time. The question is in what? lol Any one else willing to share how they feel about the market in relation to the Market cycle psychology?
Seems like a good time to just watch for clear direction. Heaps are expecting a correction in the stock markets (e.g Marc Faber for the US market). I recently got a trial of Clime's stock picking tool and there are very few quality stocks that are priced under value on the ASX going by that source. Precious metals - there are few willing to declare the immediate direction there, with several tipping one leg lower for Ag/Au before a new bull market. I can't really agree that you categorically sell an asset that is underperforming to invest elsewhere. Depends how far it's gone in the process. By that logic alone you could've sold all your equity shares in March 2009 just as they were about to leave the launching pad. I'd like to be more in cash but am holding too many losing positions.
