The Breakout is a given

I'm sure the mudpack will improve my complexion thus giving me more confidence.

Meanwhile, I would need the black swans to line up to give me any chance. The fundamentals are strong but at this time the Fed and co. are trumping any breakout.

 

Escalation in Crimea, or fallout from economic sanctions could improve the chances of a spike, but it might not be sustained all the way until Easter.

 

Meanwhile the same separatist that did the knifing in China may have blown up the Malaysian aeroplane.

Choose your black swan.

 

What does the Ukraine / Russia conflict and possible terrorist attacks have to do with Leichhardt goat shank sauce?

 

You only ever cook the ugly goats!

 

That name is available - should we ask GP to reserve it for you?

 

This is why I like this forum! lol

I personally think he may have got the price right, but the time scales wrong. That's the thing about reading the chops and not the entrails, you don't get all the info! lol

 

Don't keep us in suspense What's your prediction on the date?

 

There's always the chance of a big quake along the San Andreas Fault in the U.S.

 

Not sure, no one round here serves goat! lol

I think by the end of this year that PMs will have gained back everything they lost last year plus some. I would offer you $40 per ounce on 1st December I expect it will hit $50 Feb/March 2015.

 

The gold breakout is moving along. At this rate it won't be long before it tests US$1,400; bearing in mind it was less than $1,200 3 months ago.

Silver, which traditionally lags gold, is lagging gold as if it's a tradition. The proof is in the GSR which is hovering at 65. This means to me that silver is by far the best buy at the moment for a couple of reasons, argued on the strength that the breakout is a given.

Gold will increase and hit US$1,800 this year. The Aussie Dollar may fall to 80 cents making gold AU$2,250. GSR will drop as silver accelerates to at least a low of 40, making silver AU$55 an ounce, nearly three times the low of last year. The big decision for a silver stacker will be when to convert to that filthy gold!

Now this is not me being bullish on PMs, this is me being bearish on fiat and the world economy. I think anyone stacking tangibles like silver, oil, food, guns & ammunition, etc., will come out at the other end. A silver bull could only be a bull if he cashes in his holding for fiat, be it a paper profit of two or threefold; however that would give a lie to his intelligence for stacking in lieu of investing.

In the short term, we are only a few hours away from a Friday breakout or smackdown.

 

Why would a silver stacker convert to gold?

 

If you have 100 oz of silver today at a GSR of 65, that will give you 1 1/2 oz of gold. If GSR drops to 40, then you swap and get 2 1/2 oz of gold. Then as PM prices settle and GSR goes up to 60 ish, you change back to silver and get 150 oz of silver.

You are then leveraging your gains against gold rather than fiat.

 

I see. Now I'm going to be watching the GSR more closely But what about the transaction costs of selling and buying? I am thinking this strategy would be most beneficial with unallocated gold and silver which have the lowest premiums from the bullion dealers.

 

Well good sign, we didn't get our usual Friday night smack down. Maybe the PTB were to busy counting all the Ukrainian Gold they flew out of the country.. :lol:

We are currently at $1529 AUD per Gold ounce and $23.70 for silver with a stubbornly high AUD of .90 to the USD. Bring on $2000 AUD and $36 by the end of the year and I will be happy.

 

Yep $2000 AUS by end of year seems spot on to me.

 

4 weeks to go.

 

There is no guarantee that the GSR will correct or come close to the 2011 highs any time soon.

IMO silver will stay in the 20's usd for a decade, but I am still buying silver with this opinion. Maybe people here shouldn't have such high hopes for PMs or you risk disappointment. Stack for store of wealth knowing that spot is near the historical average lows.

I for one do not want another odd spike like past 4-5 years. I would prefer a slow and predictable upward trend to start this year. I would find it hard to make decisions about buying/holding/selling if we see another bell curve into the 40's by 2015. I would not want this and is not why I am stacking.

posting on phone and a bit drunk so sorry for any errors.

p.s. OPs prediction is absurd. OP would be an extremely risky options trader.

BiGs

 

Well, four weeks to go. I need a 50 cents a day hike to meet my prediction. What I do feel certain about is these regular smackdowns do not last long. It may have to be a black swan moment of significant proportions to carry me over the line.

Meanwhile, as I have said before, I am not bullish on silver, I'm bearish on the economy. I have steadily been buying as much silver as I can during these sub AUD24 times.

If we should hit $36 soon, it will say more about the world economy than about silver. I doubt if I will be any richer, just better prepared.

 

Very good points.

I see the interlinked world economy as becoming increasingly complex and also increasingly fragile, like a house of cards with little robustness against a black swan event.

Barring any idiocy by the world's governments (which is asking allot), I think we could see a flat decade, or at least a decade of a continuing slowing of the inflation rate with occasional, emotion-driven spikes in the PM market and, with low interest rates, many people will be driven in the share market and stocks will become inflated leading to the occasion bubble and burst.