Silver must hold at $18. I think it got down to as low as $18.50 a few months ago. If we can't hold that point it could be a very rough ride down to $15...$10...
Exactly who is going to take your silver? Too many years have gone by and few people remember silver as true money. If I have food, gas, or needed services, am I going to trade that for something I have never seen before or for something I know I can use or trade? People may or may not take silver in barter, but if silver is all you have and people don't want silver, you are royally screwed. Necessities and vices will have value because people need or want them. Gold and diamonds will have value because the rich value them. Everything else is a crapshoot.
Where to from here for silver??I'm possibly going to start selling some of when it hits the mid 30's again. A lot of people will be doing this I suspect, especially in the 40's, making higher prices less likely due to the sell offs. My decision will depend on the economic situation at the time. I would never have dreamed silver would be this price 6 years ago. I will wait things out.
Here's for hoping we're in the first sell off phase, not the capitulation phase. All in all, we haven't had that hard of a landing. It has taken 2 years to get to these lows.
The 2 charts above should not be compared.....completely different timeframes. The chart on the left is anatomy of a typical bull market, which historically lasts 17-18 years. The Silver chart on the right is only 10 years, almost half the timeframe. The pattern may look the same but in the fullness of time I think we will see that Silver's recent peak of $50 was a high point, but not the high point.
I guess Precious Metal bull market rules are different to stock market rules, where the average bull market is 3.8 years:
So according to your chart silver can only go down from here average over the last 10 yrs ~ $17.5 expect silver to be sub $10 in a few weeks
Let me explain a little. There are Secular (long term Bullmarkets) of 17 -18 years And there are Cyclical bull market up legs (short term) within Secular Bear markets (3 years or so) I assume you are talking about the later. The anatomy of a typical bull market chart is looking at the Secular ull market Look at the chart below, the shaded areas are Secular Bear Markets....which last 17-18 years, just like Secular bull markets, but notice how the market moves within those bear markets...they bounce, and an upleg within that Secular bear market is known as a cyclical bull upleg. Which is what your bar chart is showing. So we were talking about 2 different types of bullmarket.
Where do we go from here.... Just remember the end of the bull run occurs when we run out of buyers.....everyone who wants to be in is in. But the end of the retracement will occur when we run out of sellers....I believe we are close....but not there yet. I look at Newcrest Mining stock, falling price and high turnover.....everyone will have been burnt but it is getting to the point that there will be a lot less sellers as the price approaches a super bargain price. So it is with gold and silver, eventually it will hit a point where all the weak hands are out....and then we can cheer
Fortunately or unfortunately, miners have a long way to go down. Buying at the bottom will make people fortunes. Holding till the bottom will be the ruination of many.
I would just like to point out the last bull market in Gold and silver lasted 10 years from 1970 to 1980. If you want to go by past historical performance, you have to consider that. However, in this crazy global economy, I think all rules are out the window. The only thing keeping me in PMs, despite their abysmal performance over the last few years is that you don't want to be caught with your fingers up your *** when China announces they have 6000 tons of gold and would like to renegotiate the global monetary system.
1. Your 'stupid' applies to those that think that the price would go down further, and are wrong. 2. What if I buy some at $30, then sell some at $20, then sell some at $40? 3. The world consists of IS, not IF. Financial institutions offer no products at all. They just offer 'services', and if you look at how they 'perform', it is just legalized theft. I still have the same amount silver as when I bought it. Good luck with your financial 'products'. I decided to get rid of them (they includes fiatcurrencies), and to depend on my own decisions rather than rely on your 'financial institutions'. Instead, I swap the earnt fiat to chunks silver, just doing my best to pick out the lower prices. Silvers price changes due to people buying/selling more or less. It's not the metal that 'explodes'. Your 'explosion' actually means others making bad decisions. Your 'profit' implies those other losses. So your profit needs people to buy high and sell low. And this is all obvious, isn't it? Well, my 'no' answer should be obvious too, heh.
