My outlandish (probably wrong) prediction

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by SilverSanchez, Nov 24, 2013.

  1. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    No explination (although there is one im just not telling) its for testing my tech analysis

    XGD - 1300 - 1400
    GOLDusd - $1053 - $1100

    by/at Thurs 02 Jan 2014

    I think that will be the bottom

    Im just putting this here so its recorded for my own accountability (to myself not you guys :)
     
  2. Altima

    Altima Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    That's very specific. Interesting new year to look out for!
     
  3. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    If the prediction hits within a reasonable error range - believe me - ill be the most surprised.
     
  4. valuecreator

    valuecreator Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    you basically have the same numbers as Goldman Sachs.

    muppet warning!
     
  5. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Goldman doesnt own those numbers, perhaps im seeing what they have seen.
    The true test will be the XGD index and the date
     
  6. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    mmmmmm.
    Are you secretly buying up too Silver Sanchez?

    :)
     
  7. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    That prediction will work for me......
    I would be most happy with that....I won't be surprised to see a short drop below the $1000 for a few hours/days.
     
  8. hiho

    hiho Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I could be right or wrong, go figure?
     
  9. MyNamesNotBen

    MyNamesNotBen New Member

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    I wonder how cheap the miners will get with gold at them prices :/
     
  10. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Well thats the tricky psychology part. I suggest one of two things - the second would be the more likely.

    1. Stocks hold up while metals decline, letting the gold price come down to make the XGD a fairer value

    2. Everything gets dumped when gold breaks to a new low, while the stock market (S&P500 and asx200) kicks into gear as the bullmarket gains wider acceptance.

    There are a few stocks though that have hedging - so they will get dumped too - but thats the 'throwing out the baby with the bathwater' game.

    Seperate announcement: Ive been in contact with David Morgan, and he's agreed to give silverstackers.com a link to a silver seminar he's recording (i have no details currently). Ill (probably) be posting that link on his behalf, so everyone please be polite.
     
  11. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    To Sanchez,
    Do you have access to any charts of gold mining stocks in the mid 70's when gold bottomed at about $100 after its initial run to nearly $200. I am interested to see the price movements of the gold stocks in the 2 months into and out of the bottoming of the gold price. If anyone else can help I would appreciate it. I am really looking for any kind of lead/lag effect. All things being equal I would not be surprised to see the same psychology exist with regards to stock price movement soon.
    Thank you.
     
  12. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    there really arnt that many companies around today that were producing then.
    So sorry to say, no i dont
     
  13. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Interesting call SilverSanchez. This is a true example of the candle being burnt at both ends. QE on one end and PM price smackdown on the other. The candle is burning quickly so anyone's prediction is valid. We will only know for sure when the burning wicks meet!
     
  14. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    I think we can all learn something from this, whatever situation in life you're in ;)
     
  15. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    The australian gold index (XGD) has today made a new low, which is possibly a developing bullish divergence.
    But (as far as I know) no hammer candlestick yet. I believe we have missed the selling oppertunity (some of us)... and we (or Gold the metal) is in the traktor beam of 1150 - 1200. If that breaks and a new low is made - Goldman Sucks will be tested (1053-1100)

    The XAO has bounced off the 50dma - but no hammer candlestick at the very recent bottom (so if tested that recent low will not hold) - I am hoping.expecting that the Aussie stock index will test the 200dma at about 5150... that could be a good/great buying oppertunity! The ASX has lagged developed markets and will/could play catch up to record highs.

    Some fundamental support for the Gold producers is that IRAN can sell oil again (and has been given money in aid which will go straight to their nukes probably) - but oil will probably drop helping cash costs - we might see $80 again in Jan/Feb/March (i dont know what the Singapore unleaded price is so dunno if that means lower fuel prices for us). But I hope airfares will come down soon - i wanna go to europe return for 1000 bucks!

    Food and soft Ag prices in the US are down to long term lows - meaning Yaz was right 'The only way is UP!' in the next few harvest seasons.

    So in general DEFLATION DEFLATION DEFLATION (or maybe just disinflation which is how i feel right now) - but the US and the Aussie stock market is BULLISH, PMs are BEARISH, oil is BEARISH, aussie ca$h is BEARISH (even dropping substantially compared to the EURO, GBP, THB and even NZD!!.... and that will be how we close out 2013 i think

    this is all my opinion - anyone making or losing any money does so at your own risk.

    Even though PMs are bearish - platinum, paladium, silver in that order have quite good industrial usage fundamentals.

    Sorry about all this rambling commentary - im just bored and spent all day researching various ETF's and managed funds
     
  16. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Oh and ive changed my mind - im now leaning more towards Jef christianson's view of no manipulation... although i think there is standard dishonest practises from the 'too-big to fails' that is not TARGETING per sa the pm market.

    Also KingWorld News is OFF my RSS feeds
     
  17. Clawhammer

    Clawhammer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Why?
     
  18. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    I already get the 'side' of the camp elsewhere, Eric is way way way to gold centric, nothing about oil, uranium or anything else - just gold and manipulation - all day all week long and its the same narative and i dont believe the manipulation reasons or evidence is logical or credible. Plus - every interview is 'tremendous' and every second report is 'shocking'.... boy crys wolf so many times - you just get sick of listening so you go out and shoot him. There are a few guests ill download but im not wasting my time listening to everything anymore - you could easily have a scroll through every month or two and not miss anything
     
  19. jparrie

    jparrie Member

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    I think SS is being generous with his gold prediction. I can see $1000 relatively easily if we get more good employment prints out of the U.S. If they taper after that then look out. As far as mining stocks go, they can go much much lower than gold will.
     
  20. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Gold stocks look rooted
     

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