If you want to help predict fututre trends... nothing has done a better job than "Science Fiction" or
ArgentaLupa, We have been here before. You have said on another related thread that you intend to hold your stack for many years to come. I have replied that yes, this is the best plan and you will reap the rewards in years to come although the only thing you need to concern yourself with is what will the Government of the day do with your(it's) new found wealth. At the moment statistically speaking no one holds Gold although when the common idiot on the street wakes up and runs for Gold what will then happen?
None of these bloody so called experts have any bloody idea whats going to happen because they don't know what moves the USG and the FED are going to pull next...They're just pissing in the wind... To make any sort of predictions before any big major moves are made are just lies and speculation.....And some of us are fed up with it.....And yes I did get burned buy pm's earlier in the year when they fell off a cliff!
I'm sorry to hear that and it is courageous of you to admit to as much although not to add salt to injury Armstrong did mention that fall before hand. To give you peace of mind you should purchase his Gold report. It will be quite a while before you recoup your initial investment although if you intend to keep it for some years(3+) you will be more than OK. Hang in there.
Well I sort of am lucky because I returned my pms at $1700 and about $25 before the actual huge fall.....Luckily I was able to survive on that cash for a few months because I quit my job. Point is, the rest of them were all saying last year that Golds going to new highs blah blah blah......And it went exactly opposite! I am trying to spend more time on Armstrongs site and get a better understanding.
Do not listen to anyone who has a vested interest, Peter Schiff, James Turk, Eric Sprott and the master of them all Jim Sinclair to name a few. He has been saying Gold @ 2000 around the corner for years now and every time it does not, he blames manipulation. This is what initially attracted me to Armstrong, no vested interest. This photo of Sinclair says it all. Source:
Yes, I find these analytics, charts and predictions very interesting but pretty irrelevant to me in real terms, apart from a possible pointer to buying opportunities, at least the short to medium timeframe ones. The one criticism I would aim at these types of financial 'predictions' is that they seem to assume that things will continue the same in to the foreseeable future. I'd be willing to bet that if you drew Armstrong's gold cycle chart back 300 years then the data would not stack up quite so neatly. Well, one could argue that was because there were major changes: Dumping of gold/silver standards, industrial revolution, social upheaval, technological advance etc. But those kinds of big changes could happen any time. What happens if an industrial corporation suddenly announces that it has the technology to produce limitless amounts of gold for minimal energy? then gold goes through the floor forever and those charts get thrown away. So they tend to work on the principle that 'what happened yesterday is going to happen tomorrow' Which I don't necessarily buy in to. If the often talked about 'Black swan event' occurs then I think those charts will not be able to predict that. Has anyone read Asimov's Foundation series? Hari Seldon's mathematical future predictions all come true to guide the fledgling civilisation....until the Mule appears, a one off event - The appearance of a mutant - which couldn't be predicted, and suddenly all of the previously reliable predictions and guidance are useless. I suppose it's all a matter of if you believe things are going to keep on working the same way they have over the past century or if we're on the cusp of some sort of major change. I'm hedging my bets a little.
I appreciate your reluctance to accept. You are bogging yourself down to cause and affect. There is another man by the name of Charles Nenner and he also uses this method for Gold and all commodity prices. He merely supplys the data/price points, he says the reason is unimportant and states when asked that he does not know why A. goes to B. and does not care. Don't fixate on the reason. If you must then explain to yourself why the Gold price isn't double or so now. Look at the world economy compared to 2007, Is it better or worse. The so called fundamentals do not sync with your exceptions/Gold price. Our planet and universe is governed by trends, patterns, trajectories. A configuration marked by complex systems and formulas that REPEAT. They have to, for the universe to function. Read up on the Fibonacci Sequence and chaos theory. We are totally surrounded and immersed in it. There is no such phenomenon as freedom, freedom is an illusion. The only so called freedom that man enjoys is the power to delude himself.
You cannot simply divorce cause and effect. To do so is to step away from reason and science and step in to the world of magic and shamanism. Everything is built on cause and effect. Chaos theory does not abrogate cause and effect; At it's simplest it merely says that there are so many myriad of causes that they cannot all be possibly taken in to account or calculated, and therefore the effect cannot be calculated and appears to be random. The fundamentals of cause and effect on the price of gold certainly do sync. Most simply aren't taking in to account sufficient number causes to come to a conclusion, they try to simplistically look at one or two big causes without the half dozen or so other little ones wich may offset them. If half the equation is missing then how can the answer we arrive at be accurate? You say the price of gold should have gone up because the economy is worse than 2007. By what measure is it worse? The Dow Jones average is far higher now than in 2007. Many people would use that yardstick to say that the economy is actually better, and given gold's propensity to inversely mirror that figure there's your answer as to why gold hasn't gone up right there. Of course, that's far too simplistic a view and I'm not proposing that as the only reason, but it is illustrative that if we don't factor enough causation in to the equation, or simply pick the causes we want to look at, then we can't possibly produce a realistic effect. The people who produce and, unswervingly stick to these charts are effectively saying one of two things: Either cause and effect don't matter, or there are so many causes that they can't be accurately predicted and therefore we have to look at effect patterns instead. The first option is completely illogical and so wrong headed that I can't take it seriously for one moment. The second option is very valid and I'm sure that Armstrong and Nenner are subscribing to that theory. However, that doesn't discount cause and effect. If a big enough cause comes along then it will have an effect and if it's a large 'black swan' cause that has the momentum to overcome the other smaller causes then the charts will not catch it because it will be a departure from the norm. It seems to me that these charts are very interesting and can be remarkably accurate for a certain period of time, but I've no doubt that they will depart at some point. There are various charts for gold prices on the internet that go back hundreds of years in some cases and, apart from relatively short time periods, there are no discernable repeating patterns that I can see. If people like Armstrong are totally correct then I'd expect a bit more long term impirical evidence, I don't see much. That's not to say they can't be remarkably accurate over a (relatively) short period, but be prepared for the chart to 'stop working' at some point.
Armstrong doesn't predict price levels at all..... He simply provides a map from which we can follow. He provides price points which, in the case of a black swan event, will alter the course.....for a period of time that is....within large cycles are smaller cycles and it is the smaller cycles that can reverse due to any number of factors, but it is the large cycles which we cannot alter. Sure, some clown can move the market in a day....but long term....no way. QE, Fed printing etc....might influence the monthly or yearly cycle but it won't change the big cycle. It is the understanding of economies and the way capital moves and human behaviou that helps explain how cycles repeat.
Thanks. Seems reasonable enough, and yet a 300 year chart of gold doesn't show these long term patterns.
Yes, this is my point there are a myriad of reasons and to fixate on Fed printing, inflation, debasing is cherry picking for a desired outcome. Armstrong says there are other reasons, long term that play the definitive role direction in the price of something like Gold. Short term events do not matter in the end as tolly_67 has explained above. You can read right from his site below. Understanding the ECM ( Economic Confidence Model ) by Martin Armstrong http://armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2/ The Business Cycle http://armstrongeconomics.com/the-business-cycle/
Yes very nice. You think you have me. If you listen to his many talks he does provide accurate information regarding the economy and then ends with him recommending you buy gold and guess what he does for a living. Vested interest.
