CML ASE VS PANDAS KOOKS AND LUNAR COINS.

I've been buying cml and ase and have accumulated quite a bit of them in the last few months. However after doing more research and seeing a bunch of charts, it seems the pandas and kooks and some lunar yrs have a higher ROI specially the older pandas.

Should I sell or trade my CML and ase now for 2013 pandas and kooks?
I have a feeling if I don't do it now I will regret it later down the road.

I still plan to keep about 50 oz of cml and 30 oz of halfs and quarters for emergency bartering just in case of fiat collapse.

Thanks in advance.

 

I'll spare you of all the details of when and how I sold and when I bought. However, I traded my 2000 eagles for nearly the same amount of kooks (1800'ish). Granted I took a loss on paper, but the kooks have gone up in value, and retain their premium, whereas with a gazillions eagles out there, and all the same, there really isn't much of a premium added year over year. Just my humble opinion, and I acted accordingly, hoping in the end (as an example) my 120 oz of 2006 kooks will be at a nice premium in 20 years since they only minted 87,000 of those. The premium for a kook when I bought was so high vs. where they are now when comparing to an eagle (or in your case the CML). Oh, and keep in mind I'm talking about the older kooks pre 2012. . I think the same concept should apply vs CML and 2013/2014 KOOK. IMHO

 

Thank you for the reply and this is exactly the conclusion and my thinking behind my silver stack which mostly consist if cml. I have few omnias, taku and Brits and I plan to keep some for myself but I'm done with ase and cml from now on since they actually lose premium as they age. On the otherhand, the pandas and kooks seems to hold very high premium the older the coin.

It looks like I will lose oz during my planned transaction but I'm almost certain I get these back and more in a few years when I have to sell some.

 

Hi 1ozTrOy, indeed, the figures demonstrate that Pandas (especially older ones) have given amazingly good returns consistently year after year.

Certainly, if the opportunity presents itself, I would try upgrading to Pandas from CML/ASE. Perhaps even try swapping for 2011s or 2012s if you get offered some good rates on them

Even today the annual mintages of 2011 and 2012 Pandas are miniscule compared to the annual mintages of ASEs.
2011 ASEs: 40,000,000 (population approx. 312,000,000) 1 coin per 8ppl.
2011 Pandas: 6,000,000 (population approx. 1,344,000,000) 1 coin per 224ppl.

Welcome to the world of Pandas.

 

Thanks.
Still fairly new to longterm stacking and it seems I was going about it all wrong.
I was trying to get as much silver coins as I can without going with bigger bars and numismatic but it seems semi-numismatic is the way to go for a higher ROI.
It just happened to be a bonus that the pandas and kooks are great looking coins.

I have a couple of trades I'm working on but I will lose few oz per transaction but not concern about losing some cml or ase if I can grab some pandas and kooks.
2014 kooks right now is only $1.5 more than cml so its not quite expensive to do the swap. Plus the dealers are giving me more than Spot for my cml and ase.

Now I've decide to only keep 25oz cml and 10oz halfs and
5oz of 1/4 silver rounds.

 

Diversification
I keep both low premium silver, semi-numiz, numiz
during down move
- numiz did extremely good as they get older every day and the premium stays the same or rises
- semi-numiz - they went down slightly but I'm still profitable as I bought and buy them below market value (so it might not be true for others)
- bullion - went down in value

During up move
-numiz - as I said premium stays the same or rises slightly - they are not jumping in value with the spot
-semi-numiz - to the premium add some spot appreciation
-bullion - rises so percentage wise it offers better return on up moves.

P.S. 1/3 of what I have is in bullion, the rest is in numiz and semi-numiz (mostly it is high premium bullion from previous years). Recently sold some numiz as price appreciated nicely and with the proceeds bought some horses.

 

IMHO the best thing one can do now is buy horses ...
the next big buy - stock horses in May, 2014

 

Yeah, when I first started out, I made similar mistakes, thinking that bullion would forever go up in a straight line. Fortunately I was introduced to Pandas a few years ago, they definitely have been a big blessing to me since.

 

My semi numi coins have been a big blessing to me as well. They hold their value well, so you don't suffer major losses. However, I will say, to be fair to those hold 'inexpensive' silver coins, if the price does go to the moon for whatever reason, I think quantity will win out. Meaning, if the price of silver shot up to 50- 75.00 an ounce (I know, hypothetical), I doubt that my kooks and pandas will fetch a 30% or more premium over spot like they do know. So technically I think the more ounces one has vs the better quality will do better...all things being equal? (As example if I had 1000 kooks, but with the same money I bought 1500 eagles).

 

Thanks Ber. Now I'm a little confuse again.

Also Is it true that before 2013, pandas were only minted in the 500k? Now it is the 8mil range and perhaps it will no longer go up in value like the previous years?

Man stacking is complicated. Lol.

 

Well, I think Yannu will disagree with me, but I think the amount the Chinese are minting is a bit excessive. I know the argument is, well, the Chinese have over a billion people, and if they buy the pandas, eight million is nothing. The demand will be there to fetch higher prices. I personally think that 8 million of something is a bit much, and doesn't justify the premium. However, the PM kook or the lunar horse, with a MINTAGE of 500k and 300k (not including the privy they add) seems a lot better in my estimation. I will stick with low MINTAGE, highly recognized coins. Although, I probably will start stacking silver eagles at some point...just to balance the portfolio with something a little more liquid. When I sold my thousands of Eagles, I had no trouble selling them a roll at a time...with something like the kooks, maybe not so easy (to keep the premium intact). Hope this helps. For example, back when silver was 28'ish, I bought 1998 kooks for about 33.00'ish. Since then, silver has tanked to 21.00, but I sold one of my 1998 38.00. I didn't make a killing after ebay fees and shipping. But I didn't lose anything.

 

hehe... yeah, I disagree ... but we can still be friends

The demand for silver (and gold) Pandas will make 8 million look very small.

 

I am certainly not an expert . but I really lost out by stacking ASE and generic 90% silver. Without a doubt numis and semi numis are the way to go. Buying ASE an CML are like buying a commodity like sugar or oil, no collector premium., I like Pandas because even though the mintage are much higher, the WORLD WIDE demand is higher also.
I am in the US and my opinion being Asia is up and coming, while the US is on the way down, along with Europe.
Look at the 2012 slabbed Pandas selling on Ebay for $94, even with 8 M minted.
IMHO

 

Hope you are right Yannu, I have quite a few 2011 - 2103 pandas. Once all the kooks & horses are gone from the sites I buy from, I'll definitely eye the 2014 pandas. I like them, but only as a 3rd resort. I respect your love and admiration for Pandas. Thanks for being a friend.

 

Agreed. My only point is if silver went from 21 - 50 in short order, and one spent the same amount of money on both pandas and eagles, but was able to get more eagle ounces vs. the pandas, and then sold...I think they'll have done better with the eagles...but again, key is, having sold, and a price rise that happened quickly...again, just my opinion.

 

Hehe...

If I'm right, I'll be in a good position to buy you a drink if/when we meet.
If you're right, you'll be in a good position buy me a few drinks if/when we meet.
In either case, we win!

 

Amen to that.

 

Agreed if silver went to $50 better return with the ASE no doubt you are correct.But the problem is would you know when to sell, and would you sell at the top. The market being manipulated by the Feds , who knows when it will tank. With Numis it is collector based, not spot silver based as much. I guess collect both?
All good points you make

 

Indeed, I think you are in to something. Even at 50 I'm not letting go of my kooks, Brits, or pandas. They will appreciate nice over time, like fine art. So those are my long term hold...20+ years. But if I had 500 eagles to a 1000, I wouldn't worry so much if I hit a top at 50.00. From 23 to 50 on eagles ain't a bad return. You know? They are very liquid too. So I will sell without blinking. Unfortunately I'm starting from scratch on the eagles....oh well. When I'm done with my kook and horse purchases, I'll get eagles.