Hi, I know there are lots of bullish forces out there and the recent geopolitical events are pushing PM prices up... For now so many signs are pointing out to higher PM prices. But some people still believe this might not last. Today I remembered this "piece of technical analysis" I saved a file on my PC in mid-June (I don't know the source, may have already been posted on this forum - don't know the author) and it clearly shows a possible downward trend for silver... Silver could have hit 26 $, but for now it did hit 24 $... eventually it will have to correct. I remember how gold's "hump" back in 2012 never got to be as big as the previous 2011 "hump". It could happen with silver as well. It could bring us up, high enough so that we start believing, but then we could still be on the road south... I'm not saying "this is it", it's a likely possibility that I'm monitoring. We might see even see sub-20 $ silver a bit later. Basically, it could zig-zag downwards. We've seen part of the "zig", but a "zag" should come eventually and I'm very curious whether that "zag" will bring us deeper than the point where the "zig" started out But if they attack Syria and they don't taper in September and if the euro doesn't weaken so that the dollar won't gain on its behalf, then I expect silver to go north, surpass 30 $ easily by late September.
We've already seen sub $20 silver. The chart was spot on. Your looking at an old chart before the last down leg. We've gone below 20 and above 24 since the end of your chart
the last few hours has been a classic blow off from a minor strong leg up ---------- I think. I could be wrong, but I expect a couple of days southish then a resumption of a northerly direction. It could be tricking us, but this looks like a classic bar to me. what is important is if the drop that we are having right now stops before going below $22.33 US --------------- if it drops below that, please wake me up. Otherwise -------------- we are in a new uptrend ----------- higher highs and higher lows ------------------------- textbook from early July. ATM ----------- any talk of silver going to $20 or below is in the realms of late night drinking. The next big deal upwards is penetration of the old high resistance ------- around the $50 mark and downwards would be probably around the $20 mark --------- possible, but doesn't look as likely as a new uptrend atm. We shall see. All longer term cycles and times from what I see say that this big correction in gold and silver over the last couple of years is on time to have finished - and when the uptrend starts (which it most likely has) - then gold and silver will go to new highs over the next years -------------------- if they do make new highs in the next say ??? 6 months to 18 months -- then the question really becomes how high and how fast. Personally I think we are in for a long rise -------- but at what angle and to what dollar value????? God knows. have a great day all gazza
As you say, " a possible downward trend for silver..." My take is: The big down channel he's drawn in there has more supposition behind it than the horizontal levels of support and resistance. That goes doubly for the lower line of support of that down channel. He's figuring that the coincidence of the lower line of the down channel and the blue line of horizontal support (lower red ellipse) is a target just because one previous coincidence got a price touch (upper red ellipse). It's just a notion, which is fair enough, but not that persuasive - to me anyway. As it happened we got this strong rally not far below that dotted blue horizontal line of old resistance that he's drawn in (zig) and any zag downwards will have to move hard and fast to meet his target (lower red ellipse) within his timeframe, which ends August. In short a down move of from $24 to $16 = $8 within a few days!
Maybe I'm over-simplifying things. But I think it's very bullish that silver's 200 day moving averaged and 50 day moving average converged. If it reaches $27 USD I'm calling it a new uptrend.
I will go for a major trendline break to say new uptrend --------------- but atm it looks very positive. If we do get to call it ----------------------- hmmmmm, 'where to' will be a very interesting question. Cal 2014 could be massive. gazza
I'm going for a pullback before too long. The optimist part is saying it won't develop into another full blown downleg. Still partly skeptical that the bear all over though. When the pullback comes I wouldn't want it to drop too far below 50 dma currently at 20.6
It seems that the current trend similar to same periods last year........ possibly we gonna see the silver rally higher in Sep and then down all way from Oct onward again ??? :|
no it has been trending down for 2 years now -- it will be sideways for a while yet to come -- unless the SHTF with Syria
Silver could be in a downward trend while being in a upward trend.. depends on how you view the charts..
Current correction to $23 and change before resuming uptrend. If $22 breaks, down trend still in play. There was a pin bar off $25 so some retracement is in order. $26.20 is broken through, look to hold support. If this holds then we are back in business. This is the main area Im watching for ATM. Personally, it would be great if it dipped down to $15 before SHTF. But I cant see it happening now. There is to much physical buying, not enough supply and central planners now know that it will only bring more physical buyers into the market. I would guess they will just try and control the rise so as not to cause alarm. Got to remember $18 came about due to stops being hit. There are now a lot of shorts in play, so could do the same going up. Look for low $23 to get entry with up trend. Just my 2 cents
Up, down, sideways. I think it's fair to say silver is acting like a paranoid schizophrenic meth-head
I like to think of it more like that crazy girlfriend who you won't marry (keep forever), really want to kick out (sell), but the sex is just too good (risk/reward).
