What's going on with silver?

Discussion in 'Silver' started by TreasureHunter, Aug 15, 2013.

  1. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    1,182
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Treasure Island
    This is a crazy.... a little more and it hits 24 $!
     
  2. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    1,182
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Treasure Island
  3. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    1,182
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Treasure Island
    Why suspend, man? Warum sollen wir aufhren? :eek:
     
  4. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    1,182
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Treasure Island
    Why suspend, man? Warum jetzt aufhren? :eek:
     
  5. gbickle

    gbickle Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2010
    Messages:
    220
    Likes Received:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    Australia
    Well if you are talking AUD and you bought when hit $20 you are looking at 25% if you are brave enough to take a profit now...not bad for 6 or 7 weeks....
     
  6. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    1,182
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Treasure Island
    There could be a dip after this...
     
  7. Gigrantor

    Gigrantor Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2013
    Messages:
    93
    Likes Received:
    20
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Location:
    Australia
    There could be but when and how much?
     
  8. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    1,182
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Treasure Island
    I'm also wondering. Prolly a positive dollar news, something strong would dip gold, probably silver too.

    Any US economy-related news/reports waiting to be released next week?
     
  9. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2011
    Messages:
    4,872
    Likes Received:
    149
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    EUSSR
    This post has been absorbed by the void.
     
  10. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2011
    Messages:
    4,872
    Likes Received:
    149
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    EUSSR
    In some past somebody linked this site: http://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic

    One thing is sure: until a couple weeks ago earlier this year was better to buy silver than it has been the last 2-3 years. The same applies to gold. I rather prefer to buy AFTER alot of the frontrunners sold, than BEFORE.
    Aside of this, it's the eternal returning story that there could be a dip after this, downto what later turns out to have been the bottom. And all those that sold their stack back to dealers in recent months, now see a +20% price.
    See, there is a problem out there that can't be avoided: only so many ounces can be bought within a certain price range, because the buying itself already drives up the price. So the amount people (in terms of ounces) that are ABLE to buy at that bottom price, is limited. Those that doubt and wait, end up having given away their share in that price range to somebody else.
     
  11. pdkbffwleo

    pdkbffwleo New Member

    Joined:
    May 28, 2013
    Messages:
    320
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    The problem is, most people on this forum didn't buy at $20aud
     
  12. Dealers can scarcely buy at spot price let alone the punters on this forum.
    What utter Crap, completely irrelevant.

    Edit.
    Oops. It seems I may have misunderstood and taken you out of context.
    Did you mean those who did not buy at the $20.00 AUD spot price plus premium?
    Mea culpa, I do apologize.
     
  13. PAGAU

    PAGAU New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2013
    Messages:
    160
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Australia
    Some did, + premium..
    I Registered here on 10-06-2013 and I've been buying silver kg bars and coins like a mad man around spot AUD$20-$21 oz but this price rise has stopped me in my tracks.
    I'm sitting on the sidelines now, I'll just be buying a 1oz coin or two that I like here and there. Sold most of my stockmarket shares in April, they had their last decent 6 month run, I don't see any upside. I see Silver as better than gold long term.
    The QE in UK,US and Japan has me worried, it's all fake money inflating the stockmarkets (look at Japan!) and I believe it's leading to trouble.

    I have an 17-year outlook and I expect to see some more 'market bubbles' in the future, at 48 I hope I am wise enough now to see the buying opportunities but MORE importantly, WHEN to get out...The best advice I can give is 1) be counter-cyclical (ask 'what is Unloved' and take a serious look at it) and 2) Don't be closed-minded, listen (and laugh) at speculation, but go on facts, stay balanced and aware. (This means laughing at Newspaper opinions in general), and 3) Don't be greedy. (It's ok to leave some (profit, ha, 'risk') for the next guy).
    Play the game (Get Into the market) for a while then Decide when to do the opposite of what the herd is doing.

    I've witnessed the 87 crash, (yes, no joke, taxi drivers WERE telling me which stocks to buy) the following property boom (I got in early, still own the rental house, don't forget, it is the land that goes up in value, not the house) , the 2000 tech bubble (what a casino!, I avoided the high P/E's, paid down mortgages) then the gloomy 2003 recession, I missed the rise in gold then, thought it was short term! Come 2004, cashed up, got back in the stockmarket, getting 25%+ returns 3 years in a row, looking like a bubble forming, got out into cash, spent money on new car, boat, bike, Girlfriend, ignored markets. Stockmarket crashes a year later, so does relationship, surprised-not, doom and gloom, What is Unloved (besides me)? - buying into Banks and Property Trusts (dollar cost averaging down), enjoying dividends, sold out again this April into cash. Looking around, what is Unloved?...Gold and Silver.

    That is how I came to be here...stackin' Silver! :)
     
  14. Yippe-Ki-Ya

    Yippe-Ki-Ya New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2011
    Messages:
    5,465
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    The Land of Guilty by Default
    lol.
     
  15. Sargeant Argent

    Sargeant Argent New Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2011
    Messages:
    959
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Canada
    I bought at tje bottom but i had a bunch of cash foolishly i put 15 k on the mortage instead pf buying 22 kgs. No regrets though as Im happy to reduce my debt level by over 12%. My main priority is to pay off all debts while interest rates remain low.
     
  16. mrg9grn

    mrg9grn New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2013
    Messages:
    461
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Adelaide
    I got told buy someone that the aud will be over 1.10$ buy this Xmas what's the best way to profit for this
     
  17. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    1,182
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Treasure Island
    Well, we don't know how high it will go... Small drops below 23, maybe even below 22 might occur next week, still...

    Even if it consolidates, slight decreases are typical. That's when someone should pick the right price to buy a few ounces.

    In Europe due to high premiums a single ounce costs 29-30 $ right now.
     
  18. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2011
    Messages:
    4,872
    Likes Received:
    149
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    EUSSR
    The weekly Comex commitment of traders report yesterday covers 13/08/2013 and thus reflects a period of a +10% silver price increase, showed this (in the first I added the calculation method and supply and demand side for those that aren't familiar with this):
    http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm
    http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html

    13/08/2013 20276 $21,38
    SUPPLY SIDE: (14141+33880-46445-21852=-20276)
    Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 14141 Short 46445 Net: -32304
    SwapDealer Long 33880 Short 21852 Net: 12028
    DEMAND SIDE: (29913+7032+21031-18451-5785-13464=+20276)
    LargeTraders Long 29913 Short 18451 Net: 11462
    OtherReportables Long 7032 Short 5785 Net: 1247
    SmallTraders Long 21031 Short 13464 Net: 7567

    06/08/2013 10300 $19,43
    Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 13354 Short 39744 Net: -26390
    SwapDealer Long 36739 Short 20649 Net: 16090
    LargeTraders Long 27625 Short 23430 Net: 4195
    OtherReportables Long 7002 Short 5730 Net: 1272
    SmallTraders Long 19945 Short 15112 Net: 4833

    30/07/2013 8307 $19,85
    23/07/2013 10113 $20,31
    16/07/2013 11322 $19,965
    09/07/2013 6898 $19,07
    02/07/2013 7769 $19,44
    25/06/2013 4093 $18,925 <- lowest silver position seen in 15 years.

    We see that the net silver position increased with 20276-10300=9976 contracts of 5000 ounce = +50 Moz.
    This means that the spot price now reflects a combined order of 101 Moz paper silver (it thus doubled in a single week) that will be cancelled (in recent years usually 3 months later).
    This single week change is the 2nd biggest one I saw since that supermove in september 2011, where they cancelled 16446 contracts, mowing the price from $40 down to $31.24
    To give some numbers to compare with: a total annual supply is 1000 Moz. The biggest physicalbacked ETF Ishares Silver Trust now holds 338 Moz, and added 4 Moz over aboves week.

    And we also see the reason why the GSR dropped from 65.8 to 61.9 in this single week, because let's visit golds numbers:

    13/08/2013 60874 $1322.70
    Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 97495 Short 104789
    SwapDealer Long 48387 Short 101967
    LargeTraders Long 100561 Short 62573
    OtherReportables Long 47963 Short 32025
    SmallTraders Long 38520 Short 31572

    06/08/2013 54159 $1277.80
    Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 100446 Short 104902
    SwapDealer Long 48021 Short 97724
    LargeTraders Long 105340 Short 70596
    OtherReportables Long 48472 Short 31581
    SmallTraders Long 36134 Short 33610

    30/07/2013 25774 $1331.70
    23/07/2013 34696 $1290.80
    16/07/2013 24607 $1290.80
    09/07/2013 19041 $1245.20 <- lowest gold position seen in 15 years.

    The net position increase of gold is just halves silvers, while it fluctuates over a 4 times bigger number than silvers (see my signature).

    So, without General Inflation showing its nose, think twice before continuing purchasing silver for longterm stacking purposes / saving.
    For those that want to risk a $whatever buy > $whateverhigher sale purchasing power gain, this all doesn't matter much, but for stackers, it does.
    In my 'silver beginning', mid february 2011, I didn't know all above, and I bought most of my silver when the Comex futures position was 41000. And General Inflation didn't visit. And that's why my average is $30 instead of $20.
    Also worth noting is that in 2009-2011, those Exchange Traded Funds popped up, snooping up nearly 500 Moz, with the Comex side rising its position to 50000 ahead of them, to then hold it until march 2011. As shown this year: the Comex side dumped to a 15 years low, and the silver ETF side held, so by not selling low, the silver ETF shareholders didn't give the Comex side the chance to buy back in lower and frontrun them again.

    Nevertheless, and this is the key element in the absence of General Inflation: if the mining & recycling holds the 1000+ Moz production, and the silver physically backed ETF side, that added only a fraction in recent years, doesn't add big, then every year will deliver a surplus silver of about 150 Moz.
    The only reason I can see for that mid april 2013 fast $27 > $22 price drop (no ETF stock drops, no Comex position drop), is the all-at-once sale of the 150 Moz surplus from 2012.
    It's possible that this eventual 2013 surplus is now being accumulated, for a next such big sale, and they want us stackers/ETF shareholders to waste our money first at higher price levels brought along the Comex side, as to face less buying competition in the revisited lower price range. This way they first sold silver to us in a higher price range, to then buy themselves the new silver surplus in a lower price range.
    See, they aren't stupid, but if we also aren't, then they sit on the silver market for nothing, haha.
     
  19. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2011
    Messages:
    4,872
    Likes Received:
    149
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    EUSSR
    The thing is, those someones have had 4 weeks sub $20 to buy ounces, when the Comex position sat historically low (sub 10000).
    Of course, buying 10 ounces when spot is $22 isn't the end of the world, and if the price is driven back to sub $20, they can then be used to hammer the forehead. I did that with one of the monsterboxes that I bought at $31 and it helps. :p
     
  20. victoryocum

    victoryocum New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2013
    Messages:
    44
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    I'm still of the opinion that silver will tumble a few more times before it shoots up through the psychological roof to form a new-normal price point. What would that price be? I wish I knew but it's for sure that the white metal is yet to get its due in terms of its pricing.
     

Share This Page