Some stackers argue that the paper manipulators have a plan to buy big (enormous volume) when they finally bottom out the price. If the price of silver is manipulated down so that silver can be purchased by the manipulators at the extremely lowest price they are capable of manipulating to, then why haven't we seen these manipulators buy an enormous volume yet? We have seen the usual pm investors and new pm investors buy a lot, but not the paper manipulators. Are they planning another big knock-down in price soon so that they can then make their big play?
they are manipulating it down (by selling large amounts of contracts amongst a cartel for a low price) so that when it comes with pay out contracts to the regular joe investor they dont have to pay as much
Who knows... But here's what I do know: When there's blood in the streets, the best buying opportunities arise.
There's no blood yet... Capitulation will come when you see the longest term bulls on these boards start to question the price & stop buying.. I buy and sell daily but it wouldn't surprise me at all if we went below $10 this year.. $30 wouldn't either. Although I do believe there's a FAR greater chance of $10
We don't need to worry about manipulation mmisinglink says silver is going down to $14 so that's what it's going to do
I said it would bottom around the 18.80usd I think. Now maybe 15-16 could be the last push down. As for big buying, Im not to sure on that. My view is that big players were net short on it and needed to unwind their short position before allowing it to continue up. There is talk of them now approching net long which would mean a lot of smaller players are taking the short side. In paper, I think there has already been capitulation by most small, med and large investors. But thats the key, PAPER market! Physical is still buying and I cant see many who hold it selling. Its one of those investments most hold for a reason and nothing has changed YET with the fundamentals of why most hold it. If those change and sellers come back strong in the physical market, then maybe price really will drop through the $15 area. With premiums still high on physical and being now below cost of production, it really makes no logicsl sense to sell physical. I can see why people would be selling out of paper longs but not for selling physical PMs.
How would you know? The price could be manipulated up, down, sideways and backwards and you would never have a clue. The futures market is not transparent.
If it keeps going lower I'll be able to quit my gym membership and do weights with my silver instead At least I'll save money
I have read this forum for years and what I have learnt from that is NOBODY knows on here what's going to happen. but what I do know is the people with real power do not come on here and well they just love to take our money wish I was a fly on the wall at some of their parties. I mean no offense to anyone who would chose to take any, do some research into who runs this planet financially and I can guarantee its no one from here or your broker or the guy next door, and you know what they just loveeeee taking our cash its what they live for
I know whats going to happen. At some stage, at some time, in some country there will be a massive failure in paper currency that will have world wide impact. When, where and who..... Im not to sure yet as I forgot to RSVP to the invitation to the G8 summit where it was decided this year. My educated guess is that I will know just about the same time everyone else finds out.
Well you should look at it as a sequential story and also a story with more 'sides' acting simultaneously, in opposite directions. In order to get dollars from people on the silver market for free, they have to frontrun them. Buying ahead of them. Selling ahead of them. After they bought and drove up the price, they want others to pay higher prices and also not selling. After they sold and drove down the price, they want others to sell at lower prices and also not buying. They want to buy as much silver as possible in the lowest price range. They want to sell as much silver as possible in the highest price range. In order to do so, when they are selling, they want others to buy strong, and when they are buying, they want others to sell strong. Imagine you want to purchase 250 Moz silver. If you'd just buy it all in one go, the price will be driven up while you are buying the 5000 ounces chunks. But if others sell 5000 ounces, the price upwards pressure of 1 position will be undone, allowing you to buy another chunk of 5000 ounces at the same price. The same but inverted when you want to sell those 250 Moz again. Buy a part upon every 'weakness'. Sell a part upon every 'strength' And there is your answer, todays situation is that they sold and sit on the lookout to buy back in. They will do so when least others are buying, or most others are selling. This can be seen in the trend of the futures market net total position. Futures are often used as hedging, and the degree of hedging (seen as the total net position) reflects the temporary buyers / those that only buy silver to dump it abit later after others bought after them at higher prices. So, what do we see: a rising Comex futures market total net position while the price stays or even drops. Or, a dropping Comex futures market position while the price stays or even rises. To give an example, the story of august 2012, when they bought back in (first look at the oldest numbers, lowest in the list): 16/10/2012 57094 $32.99 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 8810 Short 54852 Net: -46042 SwapDealer Long 15825 Short 26877 -11052 LargeTraders Long 37906 Short 3087 Net: 34819 OtherReportables Long 11135 Short 5826 Net: 5309 SmallTraders Long 27981 Short 11015 Net: 16966 09/10/2012 57004 $33.86 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 9302 Short 55807 Net: -46505 SwapDealer Long 16074 Short 26573 -10499 LargeTraders Long 39512 Short 3138 Net: 36374 OtherReportables Long 9886 Short 6435 Net: 3451 SmallTraders Long 28428 Short 11249 Net: 17179 02/10/2012 57840 $34.61 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 9130 Short 56351 Net: -47221 SwapDealer Long 16081 Short 26700 -10619 LargeTraders Long 37591 Short 2627 Net: 34964 OtherReportables Long 9645 Short 6491 Net: 3154 SmallTraders Long 30066 Short 10344 Net: 19722 25/09/2012 51659 $33.90 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 9204 Short 52944 Net: -43740 SwapDealer Long 15210 Short 23129 -7919 LargeTraders Long 35613 Short 4259 Net: 31354 OtherReportables Long 9165 Short 6509 Net: 2656 SmallTraders Long 29126 Short 11477 Net: 17649 18/09/2012 50474 $34.63 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 9256 Short 51855 Net: -42599 SwapDealer Long 13775 Short 21650 -7875 LargeTraders Long 31582 Short 3990 Net: 27592 OtherReportables Long 11623 Short 6660 Net: 4963 SmallTraders Long 27966 Short 10047 Net: 17919 11/09/2012 47272 $33.62 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 12129 Short 64473 Net: -52344 SwapDealer Long 15041 Short 9969 +5072 LargeTraders Long 30731 Short 3976 Net: 26755 OtherReportables Long 10640 Short 5913 Net: 4727 SmallTraders Long 25261 Short 9471 Net: 15790 04/09/2012 44920 $32.13 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 13030 Short 63435 Net: -50405 SwapDealer Long 15315 Short 9830 Net: 5485 LargeTraders Long 30560 Short 4364 Net: 26196 OtherReportables Long 11723 Short 5489 Net: 6234 SmallTraders Long 23408 Short 10918 Net: 12490 28/08/2012 38574 $30.83 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 15788 Short 60627 Net: -44839 SwapDealer Long 15390 Short 9125 Net: 6265 LargeTraders Long 29366 Short 5052 Net: 24314 OtherReportables Long 10342 Short 6018 Net: 4324 SmallTraders Long 21898 Short 11962 Net: 9936 21/08/2012 32477 $30.82 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 16571 Short 58895 Net: -42324 SwapDealer Long 18264 Short 8417 Net: 9847 LargeTraders Long 26075 Short 9420 Net: 16655 OtherReportables Long 9571 Short 5026 Net: 4545 SmallTraders Long 24430 Short 13153 Net: 11277 14/08/2012 23402 $27.82 <- from here the price finally leaps up because others started to buy more / sell less Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 19168 Short 56328 Net: -37160 SwapDealer Long 20559 Short 6801 Net: 13758 LargeTraders Long 23461 Short 12907 Net: 10554 OtherReportables Long 8856 Short 3823 Net: 5033 SmallTraders Long 21754 Short 13939 Net: 7815 07/08/2012 21852 $27.94 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 18503 Short 54470 Net: -35967 SwapDealer Long 20446 Short 6331 Net: 14115 LargeTraders Long 22592 Short 13527 Net: 9065 OtherReportables Long 8829 Short 4214 Net: 4615 SmallTraders Long 21580 Short 13408 Net: 8172 31/07/2012 21362 $27.95 <- from here the price finally follows, because others started to buy more / sell less Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 17273 Short 53956 Net: -36683 SwapDealer Long 21935 Short 6614 Net: 15321 LargeTraders Long 21526 Short 13796 Net: 7730 OtherReportables Long 9868 Short 4562 Net: 5306 SmallTraders Long 21036 Short 12710 Net: 8326 24/07/2012 15455 $26.96 <- position increased but same $27 price Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 19187 Short 52772 Net: -33585 SwapDealer Long 24383 Short 6253 Net: 18130 LargeTraders Long 20590 Short 17575 Net: 3015 OtherReportables Long 9701 Short 4557 Net: 5144 SmallTraders Long 20755 Short 13459 Net: 7296 17/07/2012 15135 $27.23 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 20886 Short 53565 Net: -32679 SwapDealer Long 23069 Short 5525 Net: 17544 LargeTraders Long 20351 Short 15893 Net: 4458 OtherReportables Long 8080 Short 4882 Net: 3198 SmallTraders Long 21018 Short 13539 Net: 7479 10/07/2012 14107 $26.9 <- position increased but same $27 price Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 20606 Short 52957 Net: -32351 Swap Dealer Long 23600 Short 5356 LargeTraders Long 20010 Short 14667 Net: 5343 OtherReportables Long 8424 Short 4985 Net: 3439 SmallTraders Long 21020 Short 15695 Net: 5325 03/07/2012 17354 $28.05 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 20159 Short 53815 Net: -33656 SwapDealer Long 22013 Short 5711 Net: 16302 LargeTraders Long 20116 Short 13974 Net: 6142 OtherReportables Long 8546 Short 4982 Net: 3564 SmallTraders Long 20684 Short 13036 Net: 7648 26/06/2012 12011 $27.1 <- REFERENCE POINT -> this was the bottom total net position, price was $27 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 18899 Short 50591 Net: -31692 SwapDealer Long 24742 Short 5061 Net: 19681 LargeTraders Long 19098 Short 16684 Net: 2414 OtherReportables Long 9264 Short 5456 Net: 3808 SmallTraders Long 21563 Short 15774 Net: 5789 See, order, that's what matters. Unlike your question seems to suggest, the price is not always driven up or down by those temporary buyers. They represent a part of the silver market, not the whole. To jump to the latest situation: 02/07/2013 7769 $19,44 <- trend reversal, first increase, 1 week ago Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 17271 Short 45244 Net: -27973 SwapDealer Long 36496 Short 16292 Net: 20204 LargeTraders Long 27371 Short 24421 Net: 2950 OtherReportables Long 8804 Short 7107 Net: 1697 SmallTraders Long 18739 Short 15617 Net: 3122 25/06/2013 4093 $18,925 <- bottom total net position Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 16293 Short 43724 Net: -27431 SwapDealer Long 39439 Short 16101 Net: 23338 LargeTraders Long 26690 Short 26512 Net: 178 OtherReportables Long 7815 Short 7156 Net: 659 SmallTraders Long 19432 Short 16176 Net: 3256 18/06/2013 5952 $21,57 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 18066 Short 44621 Net: -26555 SwapDealer Long 37058 Short 16455 Net: 20603 LargeTraders Long 24898 Short 25323 Net: -425 OtherReportables Long 10576 Short 6247 Net: 4329 SmallTraders Long 19235 Short 17187 Net: 2048 11/06/2013 5020 $21,76 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 18917 Short 45365 Net: -26448 SwapDealer Long 37681 Short 16253 Net: 21428 LargeTraders Long 24787 Short 25444 Net: -657 OtherReportables Long 10722 Short 6362 Net: 4360 SmallTraders Long 19256 Short 17939 Net: 1317 04/06/2013 8399 $22,58 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 20759 Short 46587 Net: -25828 SwapDealer Long 35966 Short 18537 Net: 17429 LargeTraders Long 24938 Short 23004 Net: 1934 OtherReportables Long 10113 Short 6691 Net: 3422 SmallTraders Long 19615 Short 16572 Net: 3043 28/05/2013 8334 $22,335 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 18747 Short 44897 Net: -26150 SwapDealer Long 36032 Short 18216 Net: 17816 LargeTraders Long 24003 Short 23324 Net: 679 OtherReportables Long 10056 Short 6144 Net: 3912 SmallTraders Long 20467 Short 16724 Net: 3743 21/05/2013 11926 $22,53 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 21882 Short 47778 Net: -25896 SwapDealer Long 33075 Short 19105 Net: 13970 LargeTraders Long 24739 Short 22758 Net: 1981 OtherReportables Long 10794 Short 3960 Net: 6834 SmallTraders Long 20756 Short 17645 Net: 3111 14/05/2013 13218 $23,31 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 20636 Short 46346 Net: -25710 SwapDealer Long 32453 Short 19961 Net: 12492 LargeTraders Long 24794 Short 21099 Net: 3695 OtherReportables Long 10896 Short 3797 Net: 7099 SmallTraders Long 19267 Short 16843 Net: 2424
So, if the net futures for large and small traders is up, then does that mean that there is an expectation by these traders that the spot price will increase and thus sell long at the higher price? Thanks for helping me understand this. .
Don't focus on large or small traders, look at the whole, all classes. But about this focus anyway, the COT report / terminology divides the entities buying/dumping futures positions into classes. But in reality, there is overlapping, for ex, JP Morgan is both a commercial hedger and a swap dealer. That overlapping can even occur across the supply/demand boundary of the classes. And it can also change in time. And swap dealers, being classified at the supply side (alike the commercial hedgers / bullion banks), are actually representing other traders, from any class. Or even representing entities that have no 'direct' positions (only indirect along swap dealers). Swapping is exchanging risks / intrest rates, inside the silver market and outside it. So it's about the total net position of all entities holding silver futures positions of 5000 ounces. The net total occurs on both supply and demand sides. And above is true for all commodity futures markets. To give the last COT report as example: 02/07/2013 7769 $19,44 <- total net position was 7769 contracts of 5000 ounces, end of day price was $19,44SUU SUPPLY SIDE: CLASS Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 17271 Short 45244 Net: -27973 CLASS SwapDealer Long 36496 Short 16292 Net: 20204 calculation: 17271-45244+36496-16292=-7769 <- it's NEGATIVE, meaning that the supply side of the silver futures market is 7769 contracts of 5000 ounces SHORT. DEMAND SIDE: CLASS LargeTraders Long 27371 Short 24421 Net: 2950 CLASS OtherReportables Long 8804 Short 7107 Net: 1697 CLASS SmallTraders Long 18739 Short 15617 Net: 3122 calculation: 27371-2950+8804-7107+18739-15617=+7769 <- it's POSITIVE, meaning that the supply side of the silver futures market is 7769 contracts of 5000 ounces LONG. It's important to realize that every gain on a position (ex long), implies an equal loss on it's counterposition (ex short). And also, it's possible that losses are even accepted, because they are undone by gains elsewhere (on other silver futures market positions), sales of delivered silver, and even by non-silvermarket gains. For ex, During a silver spot price movement upwards, I could accept a dollar loss on my Comex silver futures market short position, if I sell silver during that upwards price movement too, because at the same time I receive more dollars for the silver I sell. It's important to realize all this, when looking at the figures of the COT report. You don't know what is happening behind the scenes, a perceived loss (an increasing number short positions during a price uptrend might have been undone elsewhere. Hell, one could have taken 10 long positions but also 5 short positions, meaning that his 'exposure' (risk to price movements) is actually only equivalent to 5 long positions. He's then 'net long 5 positions'. That's all what hedging is, and the futures market working methods are designed exactly for this. The total net position of the entirety of the Comex silver futures market, reflects the amount silver they bought (as an agreement in the future, but the spot price is already adjusted on the moment of position creation), and thus the part of the price they can 'erase'. If this total net position for ex doubles then it simply means that the those on the Comex futures market doubled the amount silver they already had (keep in mind, 'had' as an agreement/deal/sale in the future). Since those active on the futures market rarely want delivery of the silver, it's quite certain that at some point they gonna dump those positions again. The dump itself again removes the part in the price they had. And also, it's not the moment they gain or lose dollars. That gain or loss already updates as soon as the futures contract comes into existence. They put some dollars on their account (margin), and depending on whether their price prediction attempt (up or down) was true or not, they gain or lose DURING the price movements, as long as their position stays into existence.
Easy for you to say! Thanks Pirocco, it will take me some time to fully digest this and understand it fully. I have had no formal education in investment economics and so this is not all that easy to truly grasp for me. I do very much appreciate you taking the time and effort to write this up. You rock!
I don't have a formal education in this stuff either and you don't need one, just reading some explanations on some websites including the CTFC website where the COT report is released. It's not harder than reading anything including a comic.
