How do we know those that bought at $45 are nuts? Next week silver could go to $70. I bought a little here and there when silver was $35+ but I still love seeing the price of silver slide down down down. Heck, go to $5 and I'll collect 100 ounce bars for kicks. The year of 2013 means nothing to me in terms of silver's highs. I am in this for a 30 year run, maybe shorter maybe longer. The game is pretty infinite, so calling out the losers at any given time is ridiculous. We have no idea what one man's plan might be. People who buy and sell short term are playing a different sport than I am, so I'm not really interested in how they're doing. They lack diversification if silver bombs and it destroys them.
We hold real estate too. I was planning to sell SMSF silver to convert into property. Missed that boat for now. Oh why was I so greedy thinking it would go higher again soon.....!
Not quite "calling out the losers" as much as saying purchasing silver at $45 had more risk of immediate/short term gains. Clearly, a 800% increase in spot over, what, 5 years...is a bit more risky. Everyone's "plan" when they purchase Silver, at any price, is to hedge or make money/profit. Unless you're using silver for photography, electrical conductivity, silverware, etc. Nobody spends $1000's on Silver at $45 hoping it goes to $25...buy more...than sell everything at $20 ten years later. That's never the goal. Can a brother just get a crumb? That's all we can expect with silver...even if it takes 20 years to get it.
This is one of the most intelligent posts I have come across in recent times. I started stacking in 2011, slightly after the $49 high. I think my first purchase was at about $42 and have bought a little bit regularly since then every time spot dropped. Now at sub $20 my stack represents my best effort at saving ever. Considering I would be happy to hold for 30 years I am confident the price will get above $50 at some stage so I am now sitting on my biggest savings balance ever with a big potential upside. Had silver not had such a spectacular run up to the 2011 high I might not have even noticed it. Now I have, I have dollar cost averaged right down through the downturn in spot and started getting into gold also. Always wanted to own gold but always thought it was too expensive, didn't even realise you could buy fractional until I started buying silver. I don't believe for a second that the problems of the global economic system are over and I am happy with the loss I would have suffered in my stack (if I sold now) as a form of insurance against the music stopping at any stage over the past 2 years. If spot falls further and its $12 or $13 by the end of the year I will continue to dollar cost average down.
If there is one thing people should have learnt here it is this: 'have a plan'. Have targets for your selling. The metals are just a commodity that are in a cycle, and the only reason we should be here is to take advantage of that cycle. Not to buy and hold for 20 years because we want to 'protect' our selves. That said, really take in your feeling of pity, shame and regret that you didn't sell when the metals were at their peak and tell your self........'if I had a second chance, I would make a plan and I WILL SELL' I believe that the metals are priming for their bubble advance, and if this happens, be prepared......TO SELL. The euphoria you will feel on the way up will be more uncontrollable than what you felt 2 years ago when silver went to $49.........and all of the stories about dying currency's and apocalypse will re-surface like the plague. But you will not take notice, you will not post pictures of silver rockets going to the moon, and you will not talk about JP Morgan going bust or use words like backwardation and contagno because you never understood them in the first place. You will stay focused, look for your target like a marksman and get off at your destination before the train returns to this station. God Speed my friends. May this correction make honest men out of us all.
Even though I have only been in metals for a few years I think being a metals investor during the big run up to $49 was a big learning experience. I agree with you, that you need to have goals. I was watching with glee (like many others) during the last big run, not even thinking of selling - I didnt even have a plan to sell. Now with hindsight, I like to think I will be better prepared for next time. Personally my goal would be not to sell out completely, but to take money off the table at certain points on the run up. Sure, it could leave you felling bad if/when it continues to go up, but you feel a lot worse when the markets tank and your unrealised gains evaporate overnight.
My goal is to never save on a bank account anymore, and silver instead, while trying to avoid the bloated price levels. Selling that's for when I need to buy stuff. And not more than what is needed. Silver was a choice after having chosen a bank account. Not to buy and sell some cycle. My 'plan' with silver is the same as with my former bank savings account. Storage of value. What a 'plan', eh?
Suppose the spot price is in next weeks driven to $25. You know it now. Would you sell silver then? I wouldn't. The only thing I would do, is suspend buying silver, to wait until those that bought the price there, dumped again. So, at least for me, hindsight doesn't even matter. All I do, is learning from experiences, and try to do better. Often, those that try to 'correct' previous errors, just add another error. It says enough that talk about selling / cycles seldom shows up at peak prices, when the cycle 'players' all sit ready to dump their silver. We are now at a multiyear bottom price, and guess what: there it is. Metals aren't 'in cycles'. Commodities aren't 'in cycles'. The only reason for cycles is PEOPLE. It's not the metals but people that create the cycles. Avoid to pay prices bloated by cycle creators, avoid to sell at prices driven down to bottoms by cycle players, and the cycles become much smaller. Until the cycle creators get stuck within a zero sum game inside their own club. Price stability.
I sold evertything I had when Ag was at ~$28. decided that the next big thing would be Black cavair proof coins, I bought as many as possible (About 25 so far) and have flipped 8 for these for twice their issue price! only early days but looking like these could be a good numi investment for the future! Have fun with Ag as it's too volatile to be a solid long term investment! cheers BM
Silver to go to $300 on 29 February 2014...... It gets your attention because everyone wants to make money. What do you do if an asset does not work, you either sell it and try the negative gearing loss.....or you hold on to it. I certainly hope that it does not take 20 years for the price of Silver to go back up......but "next time" I am certain people will be smarter and look at a return, even if that means 10% or 20%. There was an article I read recently and I am sorry I could not post it, but the author was saying that over the next "seven" years investors will not really be able to make that much money, the trick will be not to lose too much. Good luck to everyone with your decision whether you sell or buy in the future silver market, I think that this plummetting of silver has shown that a lot of people do not know what will happen in the future. That is what I have learnt..........
Precious metals are an investment for 2020 onwards. Peak oil is real, despite all the lying about fracking and shale oil, and global warming is also horribly real, despite all the right wing blogosphere, oil-company-inspired counter-propaganda. The irony is that most precious metal investors are climate deniers and converts to the "America is a new energy superpower" meme. This forum is full of the blind leading the blind, which is why I usually stay away.
Interesting idea Kawa. How much do you think it will cost to build a basic home? And what about water supply and sewerage? Will tenants be easy to find? From anecdotal personal experience land directly on the water/seafront has done really well. Other land is hit and miss. Like the acres of land my father bought beyond the southern suburbs of Adelaide back in the 60s. The price remained stagnant for 30 years and he sold at a minor profit. Eventually urban sprawl caught up but it took an awful long time frame.
