wrcmad it would be good if you could explain what you are talking about so we could all understand your post. Death of fiat - not my post. I am not critical of you stacking or for that matter gambling in the paper market. Its your money and you can do whatever you like with it. My concern is that new members will see these great trading charts with impressive mathematical predictions certain to make the unsuspected buy in. In reality you are playing in a dangerous paper market that can generate major losses with much effort. By contrast, allocating amounts of unleveraged cash into physical PM over time is very safe and unlikely to produce hardship.
Fair enough. I just get irritated by a few hypocrisies that seem to be regurgitated over and over. Here are my top 10: 1. Trading is not gambling anymore than buying metal IMHO. You can bang on about some losing 1000's by trading paper, but the same has been lost recently by some stackers. It is fact (and you should research this) that if you manage risk correctly, you won't get burned by paper. 2. Unleveraged metal ownership actually has more risk than leveraged and well managed paper trading - there is no hedge or protection against losses on your metal without paper. Yet it is OK to call it "safe", and trading "gambling". In fact, negative gearing - effectively trading very leveraged real estate on margins of as low as 0% is OK. Doing this with silver termed paper trading is not OK. 3. I am tired (as are others on this forum) of hearing that no loss has been incurred until you sell. This is misleading and untruthful, and it is this belief that losses are "imaginary" that will get you in more trouble than a well managed trading plan. If losses are imaginary, then any gains (including purchasing power) are imaginary too. 4. I am tired of hearing pundits dote on the grandiose idea that stacking preserves wealth and purchasing power, detached from dirty fiat dollar values, and measured in oz's...... until price takes a dive. Then attitudes seem to revert back to the previously abmonished idea that value is in fact measured in fiat - so as to be able to claim no loss until sold. 5. I am sick of hearing stackers sledge traders for thinking they can predict price moves. Trading is not prediction. It is about positioning yourself with price momentum, not against it. However, most of these same stackers think nothing of telling you they know exactly where the price is going. 6. I scoff at the howls of manipulation when price falls, yet the cheers for price realisation when price increases - even though both prices were discovered on the same spot paper market? 7. I laugh at the claims by some that banksters are thieves, only to ignore the fact that in the scenario of commonly held belief where silver rockets, stackers will be selling to someone that shouldn't be buying effectively thieving off of them. 8. I get sick of hearing that it doesn't matter what spot price is, it's oz's that count. Stackers obsess over spot price every day..... some to the extent their life mission is to expose the so-called manipulation by the institutions. If spot didn't matter, manipulation would not be a concern either. 9. It seems ironic to me that the majority of stackers will claim that their purchases of phys silver are for the purpose of covering the risk of fiat destruction and depreciation. Yet when someone questions the risk-covering strategy for holding silver, it is dismissed as unnecessary. 10. And finally, I am sick of people bagging trading on moralistic grounds. I stack too... and like most here I do it for eventual profit. I don't see it as moralistically superior. I also trade, and don't see that any differently. I love my stack, and have a long-term view on the price of metals - just like any other stacker. Yet I can nearly predict that because of my non-idealistic non-permabull views, someone will now lob in and tell me I should sell my stack, cash in and piss off. They may even warn me that my words may be contaminating the young minds of new stackers. (WTF?) - Better make this number 11.
Well I'm not a trader or chartist and work primarily on fundamentals, but have to say: 1. Agree 2. Technically agree but it is complicated. The average person can easily buy metal but the average person does not have the skills to paper trade and hedge. If they tried to do so they may well be taking more risk than if they did nothing. Also when buying physical there is the possibility of: - buying numi pieces at bullion prices - buying for less than spot (and before anyone says that's not possible I do it regularly) 3. Agree, but the profit/loss does not need to be measured every minute/hour/day. 4. Agree. 5. For you trading is not prediction but many of those putting up predictions claim T/A as their basis so you can understand where the perception comes from. 6. Agree. 7. Don't agree. Take a look at the massive profits banks are making. 8. Agree. 9. This all depends on each person's overall circumstances - not clear cut. Also difficult to hedge a long silver position over a long period of time - also see point 2. 10. Agree.
The next few weeks play out like this... Spike down to 1150, maybe a bit lower, quick bounce back up over 1230. Trade between 1230 and 1300 with a slight uptrend for a bit. Then break thru 1300 and go straight to 1500 before dropping back to 1400 and trading between 1400-1500 for a bit, creating a nice upside down h&s.... /dream
Probably more likely... from the close today, sideways and choppy ups and downs with a strong brief up leg and then down town to 1151. H
Entry level (short) = 1305 Margin required per 10oz contract = USD$130 Exit level = 1227 (stopped out) Profit per contract = USD$780 = 600% (in 8 days)
Anyone noticed the corresponding $1150 Price target for the topping triangle pattern on the weekly, and the latest Elliot Wave analysis from Lara - eerie! [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcFdBU5ae5s[/youtube]
Bollinger Bands squeezing on the 4 hrly. Flag or pennant? - Up target is similar (around $1375) and corresponds with previous resistance. Also corresponds exactly with Holdfast's lovely Lara's Elliot Wave first target. Maybe not enough fat in it for a trade though. :/
OK so I'm a noob at charting but does that chart above show that the price has crossed back up over the 200 day moving average ?
I believe Friday is going to see gold in the $1260 USD range...hopefully lower and silver tagging along for the ride down. .
