a combination of date, decline, price supports and history is giving me the incling that gold stocks are starting to gain upward pressure. One day is not enough, and the bottom may not be in on a number of the stocks popular on SS, but ive noticed some of the juniors have had some rallies, and the producers have rallied with volume. The stocks usually lead the metals higher (or allbeit bottom first) and smart money moves into the stocks first to take advantage of the leverage. Macro-Snapshot - Deflationary scare due to taper talk - sells down asset prices, selling gets more selling momentum builds - people move into cash (safe haven currency (USD) rallies NOTE: NOT SOVERIGN BONDS!!) - Global slow downs in Australia, China, Emerging Markets, and US means taper talk is just that ... talk (reality hits the market) - Inflationary moves by governments (interest rate cuts, no cuts to QE) to resist deflation (because they get less-no tax revenue in deflation because everyone is poor and out of work) - People move out of cash into assets - safe haven currencies correct, asset prices (stocks, property, commodities) rally These moves are not like turning a small hatchback - these markets are juggernauts they move slowly down to turn but accellerate out of the corner. SO.... secular bull market in real assets has or is finishing a cyclical bear market and the secular bear market in fiate currencies is finishing is cyclical bull market Bonds are primed for a serious fall - they have not participated in this flight to safety, which means smart money dont consider them 'safe' anymore - just look at the yeild spike recently. As Jim Puplava says - Bonds peak first, then stocks, then commodities This is just my musings, so please think carefully about it. Your money your decision.
Thanks for your thoughts SS. I've bought gold stocks over the whole of June. Accumulating shares on all the juniors except a few which didn't meet my criteria at present. I've taken 30% losses on most so far but I haven't averaged down on any stocks at present preferring to just look at which company looks undervalued after each fall picking up new stocks at lower prices. I bought NCM at 14.35 and am down there but as it fell I bought the other stocks instead of loading up more of the one. My will has been tested many times over the past 4 weeks especially since I could have been buying physical instead. I could have 6 ounces of gold in my hands now with my current paper loss on NCM alone. So it isn't easy. I bought believing I was buying at a good price and I think eventually this will pay off big time. The way I see it is that if these companies traded at 4 to 8 times what they are now when gold was at $1800 then if what ai believe is true and gold hits $6000 these stocks will be 20-50 times what they are worth now. That's the life changer that I dream of. Yes it is a dream since I cannot be sure it will happen. But I'm happy to be invested atmthe current levels I am and lose it all for the chance to win big time. After all you can't win if you're not in! And as I keep telling a hot dealer at the Treasury casino when I am playing there.... it always feels better being in....
Court Jester, Im not, because I need to replenish my Energy sector allocation (sold out at the peak earlier this year and dumped that into mining a bit too early) - so rather than canabilize undervalued stocks, selling out of Newcrest was to spread that money to cover oil and gas. But if i wasnt so strapped for cash, I would have a view to buy back in when the pressure was off. Newcrest has two things going for it 1. Biggest ASX gold miner (with massive Copper credits) 2. As the biggest gold miner the asx gold index (XGD) is weighted towards it - so anyone wanting to buy the XGD for technical reasons will prop up Newcrest. When the XGD turns - Newcrest will turn. The XGD is scewed to the downside because Newcrest has dragged it down, causing further selling in the smaller companies like SilverLake. Regis (for example) has not come close to the massive overselling of the sector. So its faired pretty well along with Beadel, Troy and a few others. These are all just my opinion, and the quarterly releases will give a better picture. But I have started to see over this last week, that sellers of gold stocks are pretty exhausted. Now we are seeing the better performers being canabilized to buy less risk or to restore a %age possition. For example you would want SLR to have a bigger presence in your portfolio than say BDR - BDR is down only 10% from my buy in whjere as SLR is down 70% from my buy in. Solution - sell down BDR now and buy SLR to restor the weighting, wait till SLR gets some good momentum and at the right time sell the down the excess and use that to either buy more BDR if thats a good move - or use it as profits, money to buy more physical, money to diversify, spec money ... or whatever you want.
You're right. But I think the situation in bonds globally is a problem which will eclipse GFC, QE, sovereign debt, equity market attrition... and what really made me raise a warning on pm's before April 13th's smackdown - and subsequently the one in May plus what's happening again this week... That's why pm's are so low right now - none of this inverse bull$hit about reining- in QE (which as we all know is a lie). I'm rapidly coming to think that the plot of Benny & Bilderberg is to make gold & silver so damn cheap - say $10/Oz gold & $0.26/Oz silver that everyone on Earth has so much of the stuff that they get sick of it - all those bathrooms & floors, roof tiles etc made of shiny-shiny... Make no mistake though - the purpose of these exercises is to remove the concept of gold/silver as money in the World population's psyche - with the Greenback at the top of the tree in terms of desirability. They're trying to make precious metals 'uninvestable', if that makes sense. Why? Because they can print as much of it as they like at little or no cost... and apparently, listening to the tv pundits this week, at absolutely zero inflationary cost either. (*coughs*) Funnily enough, off the back of the massive declines in PM prices I read yesterday that some jewellery retail buyers & wholesalers are demanding that the price of DIAMONDS is reduced across the board, by a similar proportion... Now, how does the logic there work? It's down to perception of 'value' isn't it, which is always going to be subjective? What next? Buyers of Vuitton luggage go on the warpath demanding 50% off?! Luxury goods for all, say I!!! Amazing.... but true
Diamonds are a great wealth preservation tool that cannot be detected in metal detectors. Perfect for moving wealth stealthly across borders
Ss - any opinions on the energy sector ? I've had senex (sxy) for a while - currently lower than I got in but they just announced increased oil and gas reserves, no debt and cash flows to fund exploration
Do your own DD, I havent looked at SXY for ages since the huge rise, I was watching it during the take over of (cant remember the name of the company now) But I think they are over valued (last time I checked) Oil doesnt look bullish right now with the global slow down and emerging markets selling off so heavily. Please dont take this as recomendation - but im personally not looking at SXY for a buy I dont think its undervalued. I bought some shares in LNC a while ago and sold in the between $2.80 and $1.80 Im looking to get back in below 70c (closer to 60c) But WPL looks interesting to me Austex (AOK) I own a small amount, looking to buy more in the future, but not going to chase the price
