I woke up this morning and found out my 11.50 order had been filled.... i had that there not expecting it to be filled As far as I can tell, the reason im in newcrest hasnt really changed - so im not selling May 2005 was the last time the ncm price was here...
I bought at $21, I bought at $15, I've bought today............I'm probably stupid enough to buy at $7 as well.
On Ya SS Very nice buy, on another note, what do you think about their debt position, also what do you (or anyone else) think the companies strong points are? Cheers Alfie
Ugly announcement before open might explain the drop.... they expect to write down 5 to 6 billion including all goodwill and some carrying values of higher cost mines no final dividend this fin year 2014 will only be cashflow neutral (at current prices and exchange rates)
Down -8.08% as I type with volume of 6,106,576 shares. http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=NCM
Company Announcement 07 June 2013 pdf document. http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130607/pdf/42gc1rtcv6hfzx.pdf In response to the change in market conditions: *Cut spending on projects and studies *Significant reduction in exploration *A continuous cost-out program across all operations *Increasing use of stockpiles at Lihir and reducing open pit material movement *Suspend operations of higher cost ounces across all operations *No final dividend for 2013. http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130607/pdf/42gc1rtcv6hfzx.pdf What it means to me. Newcrest, imo are closing shop; the next announcements will probably be the announcement of resignations from mamagement and mine s being placed on maintenance and care "Mothballed" This stock might get heavily over-sold especially if gold takes a dip down past 1200. H
I agree with Holdfast, if the POG drops substantially from here, NCM (as well as SLR and maybe others) will be in strife. Note: I don't hold NCM (yet) but do SLR.
Im not posting this because I am angry, Im posting this for public knowledge of news being released for NCM investors. - SS "Finding a way to let investors down gently by: Barry Fitzgerald From: The Australian June 08, 2013 12:00AM BHP Billiton chief executive Andrew Mackenzie and Newcrest chief executive Greg Robinson delivered the same message to the market yesterday. It was about the business of mining now being all about capital constraint, managing the business for cash, and making an all-out assault on costs to take account of the weaker outlook for commodity prices. While it was the same message, the two chiefs were a world apart in more ways than one. Mackenzie was enjoying himself with London's mining glitterati -- if there is such a thing -- at Lord's for a dinner presentation to the Melbourne Mining Club in London. It was a breezy affair, with more than a few tops knocked off the VB stubbies that Lord's had shipped in early, not for the dinner, but for expected strong demand during the July Test against Australia. Mackenzie worked the room, enjoying himself more than a Scot in London normally would. The reason was simple enough. While his message of the need for a sharper focus on operating and capital productivity to expand margins and increase returns was not exactly hoopla stuff, it came as no surprise to those in attendance, including former BHP boss Chip Goodyear and Rio Tinto's former chief, Tom Albanese. ..What Mackenzie served up has been well flagged by BHP, and because of that, there was no surprise or alarm in the room -- or the market in BHP shares for that matter. London, it seems, thinks BHP is aware of the challenges facing the industry and that Mackenzie has a grip on what needs to be done. That is what BHP has effectively been communicating, anyway. Contrast that to the sad state of affairs at Newcrest, or more particularly the "painful" day the Melbourne-based Robinson was having as he made a flying visit to the goldminer's Brisbane office to tell the troops there that it was being closed. Robinson's message was no different to that of Mackenzie's. The $US270 an ounce retreat in gold prices from the 2012 (calendar) average of $US1670 an ounce means that Australia's biggest goldminer will be cash break-even in the 2014 financial year after capital expenditure which has been reined in from $1.5 billion to $1bn. And by the way, as much as $6bn in asset writedowns will have to be made and there will be no final dividend. It was all predictable stuff, a rational response to the lower gold price environment. But Newcrest's share price yesterday was savaged, again. Over the past three trading days it is down 18 per cent, a monster fall by any standard. The massive damage inflicted is the market's payback for Newcrest mismanaging the whole issue of what gold's tanking in April would mean to the group. That no less than five brokers downgraded the stock in the days leading up to yesterday's fuller disclosure by the company only served to anger shareholders not in the loop. How and why there was that flood of broker downgrades ahead of yesterday's market update is a matter for ASIC and the ASX. There will be genuine surprise if anything comes of their inquiries, if they bother. It is the way of the market. As if by magic, expectations can be massaged up -- or down. There does not need to be selective briefings and Newcrest says there weren't. Magical or not, Newcrest has paid a heavy price for failing to communicate earlier that when an (unhedged) producer of more than two million ounces of gold cops a big price fall as it has, something has to give."
NCM chart update. The share price went through $12 on Friday but bounced to close above. Share price staying above the $12 level is critical... and it now needs to bounce or trend sideways to strengthen the support area.
lol I hold exactly 1 share in newcrest and get cheques for <20c for dividends mailed out to me regulay would cost them more in postage than the dividend is worth. I find it amusing @ people saying they were goignto buy up big is the share price went < $20 per share .......... then they tank and everyone goes quiet bit like the idiots saying back the truck up for silver well how do you like loosing 30+% of your asset. Why not "back the truck up" for NCM shares now then ay?????????? my 2 c == lol I will watch this and see how it goes.
My question would be why weren't they managing costs before this? But the author answered that with the last sentence above - mismanagement. I would be staying clear for a while.
I dont think mismanagment nessesarily - it may have been a simple state for pushing forward projects a little longer than they should have. Everyone knew they needed to either sell or spend on the lihir mine, they elected to spend. Bad/unlucky timing isnt mismanagment, nessesarily. Maybe they should have seen this coming, maybe they should have hedged, I dont blame managment. The market turned on them. For goodness sake Barrick Gold's all in cost per ounce is nearly 1500 USD, and they are a company known for hedging. Nobody expected what the last 2 years has brought to the gold market, and its not like the miners can just sell like holders of gold and stocks can do. The write down is a paper event that screws with metrics and numbers the pros use to classify, hence the sell off. This is exaserbated by foreign investors getting out of the Aussie market due to currency drop - so more selling (Newcrest is the biggest gold miner in australia lots of people have it in their portfolio), selling gets more selling, it always happens this way with staple stocks. I have 4 possible plans 1. Hold - and do nothing 2. Sell down - limit exposure, reinvest elsewhere or wait for a clear turn around 3. Sell all and reinvest in a company that is down about as much BUT has a higher div yeild 4. Buy incrimentally on the way down (which is what I have stated im doing and have been doing) I cant stand people who are smug because they have little or no exposure in the face of people who are doing it tough. Its completely insensitive and unhelpful (not you wrcmad)
