Hi, We could say the trend is now downwards and corrections will be upwards. Gold spiked up, surprisingly sharply today: 1,390 $ today, I guess that's partly due to bargain hunting... or are we seeing the start of a forceful rise? What do you think? Is the bottom much lower... or did we just miss it? :/ Going up now or going further down?
in yen I have no cigar ... when gold was $1700 I got gold cheaper in yen then now LOL with silver ... when it was $30, I was getting silver junk for $20/oz ... now - I have to pay premium that bring price up to $26 ))) This sell off is only for chosen ones ... I wish I were in US to load up and change my fiat for metal this low
Malcolm usually writes in a gold phobic manner but I thought this latest article was quite good in explaining what has been happening in the markets in the past week. Who knows what is going to happen in the near future. The drop has been spectacular but I think rise will be more measured. I am "committed gold investor who keeps physical" http://www.theage.com.au/business/golden-days-may-not-be-over-yet-20130416-2hye5.html
I think you will find in the coming days/weeks news will emerge about a hedge fund or two that miscalculated their positions and were forced into margin selling. We dont know who yet but the news will emerge that a fund or two will have blown up and had to liquidate thus causing a run on the price.
What hedge fund would have been long 500 tonnes of gold that needed to be liquidated ? It looks much more like a planned attack to force the price down and profit from short positions already held. They knew all the market traders follow TA and the market was near support. Push it down past the support line, trigger all the stops and the rest just cascades. If you're a gorilla you don't wait for the market to do what you want, you make the market do it
^ I doubt it. What happens is a fund is forced to sell some of its position that causes an initial price drop. The price drop then triggers margin calls in other funds and before you know it you're down $100/oz and panic selling sets it.
Yes, expecially since margins have increased 18.5% as of end of business tonight. These type of margin increases were labelled as the reason for the big fall from $48, so will be interesting if it has absolutely no effect this time. Don't see any effect yet, and PM's creeping back up.
^ Margin calls, panic selling and trend selling. Remember they say "the trend is your friend" and many (I'm talking here the paper players not actually phyzz buyers) just trade the trend. Although with primary gold mine costs at about $1,200/oz that I think would provide a very solid foundation in the price.
Should I understand that you're eyeing 1,200 $/oz as the bottom? If Societ Gnrale has right, we already hit the 1,375 (they predicted this for year-end), but Saxo Bank predicted 1,200 $. Forbes was speculating about levels around 600 $. Now, I personally think we might hit 1,200 $. How long could that bottom be?...
We're trading sideways now... consolidation? Many are awaiting the drop to 1,250 $. But if I look at the charts, it could go below 1,000 $. So I'm waiting...
$1,200 would be considered a tough resistance point because in part due to the cost of production being about this point. Can gold go below $1,200? Yes of course. $1,200 may not be the bottom, perhaps $1,325 was but at this point I'm waiting a week or two to see if gold holds about $1,325 which would then signal price resistance to going any lower.
