What will it take? Is there any hope? Everything I thought would be in silvers favour has failed! I'm in for the long run so not too worried but have no idea what will be good for PM prices now besides general inflation. Hopefully someone with lots of money comes along and gobbles up a lot of cheap silver!!
The paper traders probably know better, but guessing a key change will happen once the shorts start taking profits by closing out their positions.
easy to push it back up, when it is a fix. :lol: just imagine this is the market place, we start with one bar and past it around and record that on the market price and click update. past around between the monkeys, and there you have the updated live market price. each time it goes around the price goes up by 50 cents. a few rounds we are back to 35 again :lol: am fix and pm fix amongst us monkeys we can manipulate the prices. if that makes you feel butter.
Don't worry, by next week you won't need any fiat, you will just be able to pick silver up in the street where everyone has dumped it.
+1 for that, let's hope that the big players have suppressed the price so they can buy it up cheap before they manipulate the price to the moon, I have my fingers crossed that there is an agenda behind this and the agenda is to get rich off silver.
Lucky, I read this somewhere this morning "Gold (and silver) are like car insurance, no one wants a car accident, but just because one doesn't happen doesn't mean you drop your policy"
"What will it take? Is there any hope? Everything I thought would be in silvers favour has failed!" arrh no, actually, it makes perfect sense if this is correct --------- "following is fantasy perhaps? but, if you were someone trading on a world stage based in London - it would fix your problem -- 'OK, what we know so far. a couple of weeks back AMRO banned delivering physical gold as a settlement and made cash settlements only - and amro isn't a tinpot show. Should have put the hairs on the back of the neck up a bit, you would think. Recently we have had many many growing reports that physical gold was being demanded as settlement for contracts and that physical was draining at huge rates historically. Now, the above seems to be fact - so how about this. Gold and silver as well I think - are traded using a system more or less exactly the same as fractional banking - in other words you have lots of bits of paper flying around but you only back up with the real thing a few of those bits of paper. Above is fact again - not opinion. So, what happens when people in large amounts begin to take physical gold and maybe silver delivery instead of settling in cash? Pretty dammed obvious isn't it - that is exactly the same as a bank run of old. Now, the way the system works is that to take delivery or settle in cash (long) - you have to have a long contract - ie. you are betting on the price going up. If in fact you have the price move 'down' against you, you can sit happily and take the pain ------------ but, only until the price pressures you so much that you either cough up more margain - which is demanded or you sell out of that position by choice or your position is closed and you are sent the remains in cash or a bill --------- NO DELIVERY NEEDED. Now if you were the trading house - this would cheaply fix your 'physical gold run' problem --------- and indeed, it could fix it overnight (or a couple of nights). Driving down the price dramatically would be easy peasy - just take out a load of short contracts - ie. madly sell what you don't own - a common practice, and not only a common practice but a practice that works theatre perfect if planned well and wait for the right catalyst - or, even better create your own - like a loose canon in a high position. Now, how many of them have we got? Arrh, quite a few. But wait, there's more ----------- if the price was driven low enough, you could then stealthily buy back your commodity (in this case gold) at cheaper prices to build up your lost physical stock again (unless some other bugger soaked it up). Now, what I have suggested is a complete fantasy in my own mind - after all I trust these organisations with my life as they are the financial and economic pillars of our society - but you can enjoy the story. Whether or not you think it is complete fiction is up to you." end how about that one? gazza
So perhaps a loss in confidence in the ETFs could be causing more physical to swamp the market temporarily just as the central bank selling did in a decade or so ago. Physical demand could be rising but at the expense of previously leveraged paper-based ETF physical? This reason doesn't have as much manipulation conspiracy mixed in.
"What will it take? Is there any hope? Everything I thought would be in silvers favour has failed! I'm in for the long run so not too worried but have no idea what will be good for PM prices now besides general inflation. Hopefully someone with lots of money comes along and gobbles up a lot of cheap silver!!" If we knew that Au and Ag were in long term uptrend and that this was just a correction in a long rise ------------- would we use language like 'how will silver recover' or would we use language more like "when this correction is over....." well, if you look at long term charts - particularly Au ------------------ this atm looks exactly like a downtrend in a much larger uptrend - in other words, a correction. Now, as painful as it is -------------------------------- aren't they always painful? Isn't any 38% or 50% painful - like tearing a bee's guts out? Wellllllllcome to the party. Be assured, at this point, everything looks absolutely normal - go and vomit in the bin and have a drink. We are ok. Now, if you own pm's because you think they are a long term store of value, safer than most things from the ravages of time and or inflation ----------- rest easy. If you think you can keep them in a hidy hole and forget them for a long time and still have something of value, almost no matter what - rest easy. If you are storing them because of a shtf possibility ------------- rest easy - in fact, the present goings on might actually be proving you are well founded. If you bought them for short term gain or as an 'investment' -------- then you might be learning why many of us say that is a no no. Sure, it would have been great to have bought a truckload of silver at $4 and sold it at $49 and now be waiting in all that cash to buy back in again ----------- but, you didn't have a crystal ball, did you ------------------ and, you do realise that the world is in complete shit, is probably heavily manipulated AND that no one, but no one - knows where this is all heading ----------- there is no history on it ------------ get it straight, no bastard on earth knows the outcome of all these goings on. So, when you decided to put that silver or gold in your safe or under you pillow because you thought it a good idea --------------- rest easy - you have not at all been proven incorrect. If, in 10 years time, the same conditions exist - I might say you called it wrong --------- but atm - the world is basically buggered - and how often do you see a person when under extreme stress - makes completely the wrong decision? Well, what makes you think that nations and corporations and self interested parties do any different ---------------------------- AND, above all else, this just might be (in fact I personally think so) one big giant trick. --------------- Now, you can go out and panic. You can cry over lost opportunity. You can lament buying your stack. Or - you can sit back, have a drink and say ------------- well, I actually bought this stuff because I expected a wild ride ------------------ and, this is it. Friends, in short - at this very moment - this looks like the finish of a major correction. The world is in the shit - and if indeed it is a correction - then the reasons you bought for are most solidly still in place. have a great day gazza
I can easily tell you what will happen but not when or how low it will go first... ... there seems to be a massive shorting fest going on - not only those that started shorting but everybody else that has piled in having seen the trend going down (including some SS members obviously) It's not like a stock market where the sellers are actually selling stock that they own. Most of the sellers in this case do not own the the gold they are selling. They are selling contracts. ... at some point the price will stop falling and some will start covering their shorts, pushing the price up higher etc. etc. The "sellers" are not real sellers that have sold their holding and walk away. They have to buy back in the market to cover their selling obligation. So expect the reversal to be fast and very steep to the upside... only question is how low it will get before that happens Same thing happened to many stocks during the stock market rout in 2008 drops went much deeper than they would have gone thanks to short selling
Very interesting that bit, if they had to supply the gold and silver with no other option then they would have to buy back in but if all they have to do is pay fiat instead would that mean that they no longer had to buy back in so the upturn is not guaranteed?
By "buy" they don't have to buy physical - they have to buy a futures contract to cancel the earlier one they opened. But that still pushes the price up just as the selling short pushes the price down. Or they can keep the original sell contract until expiry and supply fiat to cover the difference. But I suspect most that have gone short will not be willing to remain exposed to the price if it starts going up in a hurry. It will be the scramble of short sellers to undo (cover) their short positions that will cause a sharp rebound - always happens
