Got a feeling that something big is going to happen outside silver market/non-silver related. Dropping price like this from $50 after the fast rise is a no brainer and easy to do, but drop like this from current prices with no fundamental change - ...
But in the end, it's not gravity that moves the knife, it's some selling, and the knife is stopped by more that try to catch it. And the first ones doing it receive the most silver. How risky was it to buy at $35? There was no knife falling there. Yet, todays shows the risk that it involved.
Do many people realise this is playing out just like 2007 / 2008... DJI at 15,000ish, then suddenly commodities start plunging (especially silver/gold). Deja vu, stocks are next to crash. Then silver and gold will be the first to rebound (with force), but I would think there is some major downside to come yet for metals...
Liquidation frenzy !! Sounds like folks had margin calls to meet or were in too deep on a 'deal gone bad' somewhere. I'm sure there'll be some kind of small uptick as the bargain hunters snap some on the dip.
Can't get this stupid song out of my head! It holds to many painful words [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BZt6lumdlQ[/youtube]
1) The futures market had as little as 18000 positions as of last wednesday. That is less than at the lowest moment in that same 2007/2008 you mention. A decade low was 12000. A recent high was 58000. An older high was 75000, right before the 2008 collapse. So, to me, it appears unlikely that the futures market caused this further drop entirely. If that was true, they would have almost reached the zero, something that never happened before, in any precious metal. 2) I monitor ETF stocks. SLV didn't change since a week, but the date does change, so its like not much changed there. I don't see other ETF stocks dropping. So the ETF side also appears as non selling. 3) What remains then? People that bought delivered and sold back to dealers? Stackers like us? But I see surprisement on the forum. I'm surprised too. What I DID notice last weekend was that the dealer I bought most of my silver from, suddenly offered Philharmonikers from various previous years. I never saw that happening before. He sells them as a promotion, but the price difference is 22.20 versus 22.30 euro so not really worth mentioning. Although, I entered some quantities and the amount is somewhere between 500 and 1000, so not that much. And there aren't other kinds of bullion coins of older years available. So all together, it doesnt look like a mass buy back from customers. So who is selling now to cause this price drop? I have no idea. The best I can think of is that it's a combination of futures market position dumps and stackers that sell. But this happened before and the price never went under $26. It's now $3 lower. How does the price mechanism on a futures market actually work? It's hard to find details about it. It can't be just futures positions. And I assume that if dealers buy back alot silver from customers, that they don't phone the Comex to tell it so that they can adjust the spot price.
this is nothing, let me repeat, nothing at all like 2007-2009, with regards to other asset classes, especially shares. Shares might correct somewhat, but the underlying fundamentals for shares are much different to 2007-09. The underlying companies have removed alot of debt risk, including the major US and Australian banks. European banks still more dodjy, not going anywhere near european banks.
^ Quite true. In 07/08 when subprime and debt were imploding, the public sector took on all that debt (and more). Today its the public sector who are teetering on bankruptcy as opposed to the private sector.
exactly, the wonderful execution of the transfer of debt from the private sector to the public sector, and hence onto the heads of Mr & Mrs Average Taxpayer. But then the average Taxpayer would rather watch the footy show, rather than gain an understanding into all of this, and the Powers That Be, are well aware of this, and apply it buy stealth. By the time Mr & Mrs Average wake up to it, the damage has already been done.
Oh what a load of BS. How are the banks any safer now than they were in 2008 ? Australians are still carrying as much personal/mortgage debt. It only takes property values to start falling before you see banks start to get into major trouble. Australia and Canada are the only countries to have avoided any major property collapse.... so far
thats it, with PM pricing collapsing around you, continue to release this standard speal. You really need to get a better understanding of the facts as they change. Or maybe not. Its a market out there, buyers and sellers make their own decisions. You keep making your decision making based on your interpretations, and i will do like wise. Our banks are safe, US banks are much safer than they were during the GFC. European banks are still the canery (could they be the black swan???). I've given you the 'heads up', its up to yourself and others to do your own homework.
