Over the past few years if you had gone long when the majority of threads were bearish and shorted when the majority were bullish you would have made a decent profit. Who needs TA when you have SS sentiment! ... lol
When you look at a graph try not to see a squiggly lines instead try to see it as fear and greed and you will understand TA. A graph is just a way of displaying human emotion with some underlying funny mentals
My thoughts about this are exactly the same. Technical analysis only works as far as people believe it. Technical analysis is also nothing more than attempting to make peoples trading decisions predictable. If you do what technical analysis seem to suggest (and as you say, it's more searched-for human-subjective interpretations than technical as such), then you are doing what others want you to do, and be sure, it's in their benefit, not yours. That 'dramatic collapse' from $26 is basically just the same as 'to the moon' at $50. Both were suggestions that were false. The former is to try to make you sell in the hope to buy back in much lower. The latter is to try to make you buy in the hope to sell much higher. And there is the catch, the second parts of these trading sequences doesnt happen. Why? Because they frontrun you. It's not a coincidence that the price moves in the other direction are so extremely fast. I bought when dollarspot was $29,2. If I had waited a day, I could have done it at $28,5. But I don't care the difference because the risk to miss is so high due to the frontrunners club. Just look at today, they moved the price up to $29,4 in one vertical. Instead of staring at 'technical analysis', I look at what people do on the market. If I sense alot negativity, see alot silver for sale, see the pump&dumpsters clubs (alike Comex) dump, then I hurry to become the buying side. Whatever technical analysis sings. So far, I never had reasons to regret it.
Fear and Greed can't and will never trump fundamentals. TA and Charts might show a trend quite well and give indications of where things might go next but they are also a double edged sword in that they only really show you where things are right now or in the past. They are also prone to the manipulation of the markets by the big players if you think about it, take the recent waterfalls evident on the charts, how many algo's do you think kicked in exacerbating the drops and an algo is after all nothing more than a highly strung technical analysis of a market. Sure if you have the nous you can protect yourself playing the game and make some short term dosh on the side to build your stack but the end game is where it's all at, and a slow and steady stacker can sleep at night with much less risk and the knowledge that the number of ounces in their stack wont change while their sleeping.
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. - John Kenneth Galbraith
