Hi Reno' I'm going great guns! I clicked over 1000 tv's in january and have got right into e-waste now. although i'm looking fwd to not dealing with these old crt tv's as my back is starting to play up as it's a lot of handling, but the new style flat screens are beautiful, little copper but lots of golden goodness. I had a huge score in december that convinced me to go the whole hog, it was a warehouse of old pc's and they were all pentium pro machines. I'll do an update soon and show you what i've been up to, but that score was real big. a pentium pro cpu has 1 whole gram of gold in it, and I got lots. another one was a massive old server kind of thing, as big as my garage, took 8 days to scrap it on the spot and it was like opening king tuts tomb! I'm 3 weeks into a cert' 4 in micro biz' operations and taking it to a whole new level now. it's unreal, an almost untapped market here in oz' but I shouldn't talk too much until I get rolling. But yeah, copper is my bread & butter now, i'm hoarding the purest form, millberry, the dirty stuff gets turned in for cash and has kept me going.
One reason is that Eric Sprott has noticed that the amount of money he sees going into precious metals is about 50:50 meaning that there is about 50 times the amount of silver being bought than gold, given the GSR is around 50:1. He states correctly that the amount of silver being mined compared to gold is around 12:1 and says that this is a situation that cannot last. Also silver has many more industrial applications than gold which are being discovered ever increasingly, meaning that its likely to be used up faster in the future than gold. I assume you're gold heavy and will defend your position, that's OK... I'm silver heavy
This whole thing has me perplexed. The market should be garbage, but the Dow it todamoon. Politics is hitting all kinds of roadblocks, but the market is unfazed. What a strange world we live in.
By simply chosing a start point in price and moment, one can draw any 'support' line, and thus pre-draw any 'conclusion'. I can understand that you need others to sell at lower prices in order to buy back in cheaper, but can't you make it abit more.. interesting, than this?
Look out, I'm coming for your silver! Doesn't take much to bring out the schizo's on a pm forum, lol.
Baron just needs some tough love. 1st post he wants a prediction, 2nd post he doesn't want a prediction, now he wants a prediction again...
Although I could probably find many answers to this by diligent googling: I'd like to ask specifically you whether you could please elaborate that. Is it technically wrong? I've never really been studying the fundamentals of technical (chart) analysis, but the analysis that I've read so far always communicated the same thing, in a remarkably consistent fashion, namely "If it rises, it might even rise higher or form a tip, and if it falls, it might even fall lower or form a bottom". The lines that are drawn into the charts usually look quite arbitrary for me, and there's still this slightly polemic argument: If those technical analysts are right, why to they still have to work as technical analysts? Sometimes I think that much of this is based on convincing babble with lots of cryptic technical terms, and - if enough people are convinced that it makes sense - initiates self-fulfilling prophecies. But that is just my personal, (yes: uneducated) impression, and I'd be happy to hear how some seemingly arbitrary lines that are drawn into the chart of a commodity (measured in an arbitrary currency) can predict a financial crisis, the amount of this commodity that will be used in the industry in the future, or a comex magin raise. BTW: The silver chart of the previous 6 months clearly shows a downward trend. Should we be worried about that? I don't think so. It will most likely bounce of the 38.5%-Fibonaccy-Retracement and hit the support at 21.80 (or was it $?) Seriously, I don't get it :/
Sure. First, trend lines are not drawn by simply "chosing a start point". They are usually started at a high or low within the given timeframe of analysis. A trend line, by definition, has had at least 3 touches by high or low turning points. Two touches is an arbitrary line between 2 points. 3 or more touches constitutes a trend line. What critics often don't realise is that the timeframe of analysis and trading is key. If you are analysing a short-term timeframe, the trend will often be counter to the longterm timeframe. This important consideration is usually ignored by T/A critics. Second, true technical analysts do not ever "pre-draw conclusions". Instead, they analyse price action to determine the most likely outcome. There is a big difference. Trading using T/A is based around probabilities, and that is why stop losses are imperative - it is known that your trades will not be good 100% of the time. The only pre-determined outcome you will find is drawn by the permabulls - with lame excuses and justifications as to why they were wrong when spot may have dropped.
Absolutely. For effective short-term risk management, a position has to be able to be exited immediately - this isn't possible with physical. Besides the liquidity issues you mention, the spreads (or changeover costs) on physical would be a killer too.
Thanks for the summary wrcmad. I'm still not convinced that a chart can say anything about a "probability". So if there is a rising trend line with 3 or even more support points - what does this say about the probability that the trend will continue? Use a different currency, and the support points and trend line will be different or not existent at all. A company may declare bankrupcy, for commodities there may be shortages, or there may be things like Soros selling his gold ETF and causing some paper-selling-panic. Looking at the chart and trying to extract "probabilities" from that for me seems like saying: "We had 20C in May, 15C in June and 10C in July, so in December it will probably be -15C" I know that there are financial products (exotic options etc.) that are tremendeously complex, and where technical analysis might bring some hints that I'm simply not able to understand (especially when it comes to more complex patterns than "simple trend lines"). And sticking to the weather example: In most cases, the prediction that the weather tomorrow will be approximately the same as today is true, and similarly, some markets have a "momentum" and this is actively exploited by traders. More knowledge about the markets, like cyclic behaviors e.g. for crops, are also analyzed and taken into account. But I still did not hear a convincing agument why the price movement, e.g. of silver, of the previous 6 months should in any way be related to the price movement of the next 6 months, neither in terms of predictions nor in terms of probabilities. (I want to emphasize that I do not call TA 'rubbish' I'm just not convinced, but maybe that's just a matter of attitude)
