Dow Jones Breaking Past 14,000?

W0LFMAN · Jan 24, 2013

Any thoughts whats going to happen next? Dow Jones just climbing back up to the 2008 cliff it jumped off?

I think that it might go to 14,500/15,000 then mid 2013-2014 start the drop to 5,000/6,000

Super Head and Shoulder pattern

My 2 Cents

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/eu-banks-to-draft-living-wills.html/

Willow · Jan 24, 2013

I do not know, lets be honest. But to set up a head and shoulders, i would think that the right shoulder high would be less than the head high. It would be interesting to see that Dow chart with the dollars on the right axis adjusted for the increase in money supply in the time period.

crewy · Jan 25, 2013

Ive been thinking the same thing with a few exchanges hitting highs ATM. Could it be the QE coming into play though? Not sure but interesting times worldwide

W0LFMAN · Jan 25, 2013

From my Very limited understanding, I believe the Money Printing time line is close to this.

thatguy · Jan 25, 2013

that is NOT a encouraging chart

W0LFMAN · Jan 25, 2013

If you noticed when they stopped printing it went down.

Now is 80 billion printing a month.

Heard also this week, they are removing possible the Debt Ceiling or suspending it for sometime anyways.

JulieW · Jan 25, 2013

Very interesting ideas I've just been reading on this link:
http://danielamerman.com/course/suNINETEENv2m.html

Perhaps the single greatest danger facing investors over the long term is to be investing for the wrong paradigm. That may sound a little theoretical, but we have a very clear and quite dangerous real-world example going on in front of us right now, which is the false dichotomy between the "Mainstream" and the "Gloom & Doomers".

The way it is too-often presented is that most people in the investment community fall into one of two groups. There is group (A), for those who are for the most part secure in the comfortable Mainstream. They understand that the financial world has some real issues and that there may be some bumps in the road, but believe that investments over the long-term future will perform pretty much the way they did in the latter half of the 20th century. And because there is a high degree of confidence among mainstream experts that this will be the case, the assertion is that people can safely invest their life savings based on this assumption.

For those who disagree with this, the conventional narrative places them in group (B), the "Gloom & Doom" camp. This group is seen as being comprised of marginalized, eternal pessimists who are always convinced an economic doomsday is nigh.

So, the conventional narrative goes, either you (A) buy into the status quo, or (B) you move all the way over into preparing for the collapse of the status quo.

As with all false dichotomies - which are a quite effective way to control the perceptions and thus the behavior of tens of millions of people - there is an elementary error in logic in assuming it must be (A) or (B).

What if the current economic and investment reality aligns with neither (A) the continuation of the status quo from the long-gone latter half of the 20th century, nor (B) the collapse of the status quo, but instead (C), the ongoing transition to a new status quo for the first half of the 21st century, which is that of a dysfunctional and increasingly politicized economy, with an ever-smaller share of that economy coming from free enterprise and the private sector?
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Europe and USA are evolving into something quite new. The political bureaucratic nightmare of the Stalinist years is just beginning again, but without the obvious brutality. US imprisonment rates, social supports and demanded obedience in Europe, the 'Big Brother' society, all pointing toward the end of 'the old'.

what if the currency doesn't collapse, but instead the government each year increases its control over the economy and markets, with an ever-expanding web of laws and regulations that smother unstable market forces along with many individual economic choices in the process? In such a world, what then happens to those in group (B), who have invested everything they have based on the mistaken impression that free market forces would drive an inevitable currency collapse?

Such a future would likely be even worse for those in group (A), the Mainstream investors. For when the government share of the economy grows faster than the economy itself, then private sector growth slows or even turns negative. Thus much lower wealth gains are generated than what conventional financial planning depends upon, even while a larger government must necessarily take an ever greater share of the wealth that is generated by the private sector, to pay for election promises that grow more expensive each year.

The 1-2 combination of less wealth available and more wealth taken - which is near inevitable with a rapidly growing public sector - would likely catastrophically collapse the great majority of Mainstream long term investment strategies when performance is measured in after-tax and after-inflation terms.

This is why believing in a pervasive but false dichotomy may be the single most dangerous mistake an investor can make. Because if an investor erroneously believes that the future will necessarily come down to only two paths, either the status quo or the collapse of the status quo, then they will not be making the right investments for a third path to a new and quite different status quo.

This third path and new status quo is of a blended economy that shifts a little more each year from being dominated by the markets to being dominated by the State, even while laws, regulations and tax shelters repeatedly change on a wholesale basis to allow the State to pay for the extraordinarily expensive promises that are needed to win elections. This third path is not theoretical, but is all around us, and has been growing in strength ever since 2008.

If the dominant determinants of investment performance in the future are political rather than economic, then investors need to be investing for politically guided economies and political risk. Those who do not invest for such an economy risk being blindsided and financially devastated.
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and the danger is inflation

Reality is that the dominant financial force of our day is Financial Repression, where among other repressive measures, the government forces interest rates down to near zero in using a method that again very few understand, but which enables it to effectively confiscate wealth on a wholesale basis from retirement investors, savers and pension beneficiaries. Because Financial Repression also operates at a level of sophistication a notch higher than the way most investors view the world, it too could be called inherently deceptive, even as it serves as a method for the government to effectively raise taxes by many hundreds of billions of dollars per year without paying the political cost for doing so.
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Thoughts?

southerncross · Jan 25, 2013

If the dominant determinants of investment performance in the future are political rather than economic, then investors need to be investing for politically guided economies and political risk. Those who do not invest for such an economy risk being blindsided and financially devastated.
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The current determinants are bankster driven with the owners telling their politicians how things go.

The reason Bernanke, Geithner, Obama, Wall Street, corporate titans, and media pundits focus their attention on the stock market is because they are looking out for their fellow 1%ers. The working middle class, once the backbone of this country, own virtually no stocks. The 88% stock market increase since March 2009 hasn't benefitted the middle class one iota. The Federal Reserve engineered stock market recovery has benefitted moneyed bankers and wealthy corporate executives, the very people who collapsed the worldwide financial system and received the bailouts when they should have gone to jail.
Click to expand...

Those who continue to tout a non-existent economic recovery have focused on the manufactured stock market and housing recovery, extrapolating those trends without understanding how it has been achieved. A master plan implemented through the collusion of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Executive branch, Wall Street cabal, and corporate media conglomerates has created the illusion of recovery. Make no mistake about it, those in power held clandestine meetings and had covert discussions that will never see the light of day in transcripts or recordings. They developed a strategy to save themselves, their fellow cronies, and the corporate interests that run this country. They threw the middle class, senior citizens, and young people under the bus in their sordid determination to retain their power, wealth and control. Their multi-faceted plan has been rolled out as follows:
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The master plan has succeeded in delaying the worst of the Crisis, further enriching the oligarchs, further impoverishing the middle class, fanning the flames of revolution across the globe, provoking foreign adversaries, inciting anger among the populace and darkening the mood of the country. Those predicting a return to the peaceful autumn like days of the late 90s reveal their ignorance of history. Winter is here and there are many dark days ahead before Spring is discernible. The linear thinking crowd who hang their hats on never ending progress spurred by technological innovation and a limitless supply of cheap resources are denying reality. Delusion and hope for a better tomorrow is not a strategy. We have entered the 5th year of this ongoing Crisis. Fourth Turnings do not fizzle out; they build to a societal earth shattering crescendo (American Revolution, Civil War, Great Depression/WWII). Economic, financial, social and global conditions do not progress during a twenty year Crisis period, driven by the generational configuration that arises once every 80 years. An epic struggle between good and evil, rich and poor, government and governed, young and old, nation and nation, awaits us over the next fifteen years. No matter what happens in 2013, it will be driven by the core elements of this Crisis Debt, Civic Decay, and Global Disorder.
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http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38642.html

EJAM5 · Jan 26, 2013

More of a double-top...

Pirocco · Jan 26, 2013

Well, I own products instead of any representation/promise, so DOW etc is not in my care-about cloud.

leo25 · Jan 30, 2013

I think it will push through.

They want to give the illusion that things are getting better. I think if they allowed it to crash again so soon, too many people will stop believing in this game and they don't want that.

Also people might be pricing in the currency devaluation.

crewy · Jan 30, 2013

Pump and dump everything except gold/gold producers, then pickup the cheap goldies with the profits? Just a thought, maybe watching too much Keiser Report atm though...

southerncross · Jan 30, 2013

crewy said:

Pump and dump everything except gold/gold producers, then pickup the cheap goldies with the profits? Just a thought, maybe watching too much Keiser Report atm though...
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Pump and dump even the paper gold, that way they can score phys for nix and hedge themselves when it all falls down. The fuckers nasty people would even short their own parents if they could turn a buck doing it.

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