Jim Rogers on agriculture

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by Gold Kiwi, Aug 4, 2012.

  1. Gold Kiwi

    Gold Kiwi New Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2010
    Messages:
    529
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    NZ
     
  2. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,762
    Likes Received:
    91
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Shanghai:Sydney
    +1

    Jimmy Rogers is a smart man.
     
  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    18,687
    Likes Received:
    4,452
    Trophy Points:
    113
    How will that work though? It will require a complete overhaul of our economy and our currency system before that happens. Farmers will not get rich:

    - farmland is too expensive
    - fuel is too expensive
    - fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides are too expensive
    - water is expensive
    - machinery is expensive
    - buildings are expensive
    - legislation compliance is expensive
    - bank loans are expensive
    - it is seasonally highly labour intensive
    - wages are too expensive (but paltry when compared to non-farming sectors)
    - transport is too expensive
    - contracts with food distributors often barely cover costs, at other times they don't
    - the majority of consumers don't want to pay the real cost of produce but they want flavour
    - the majority of consumers want uniformity of produce as well as flavour
    - the majority of consumers want long shelf life as well as flavour
    - imported products will out compete local products because of all the above, with the exception of flavour in a lot of cases
    - imported products will out compete local products because of "free trade" policies
    - imported products will out compete local products because of diplomatic deals done in the finance, energy and defence sectors amongst countries
    - not to mention currency wars

    Dream on Jim.
     
  4. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,762
    Likes Received:
    91
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Shanghai:Sydney
    Start small... dream BIG! :)

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    But yeah, this one is a killer: legislation compliance
     
  5. Black_Sun

    Black_Sun New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2011
    Messages:
    1,031
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Australia
    And to add to all the reasons you listed, a couple of years ago the Argentinian government stopped farmers from selling grain(? see Note 1) overseas. The farmers wanted to sell overseas because they would get a higher price, but the government said, "We don't have enough locally, so you aren't going to be selling anything overseas." After googling before, grain now has a 25% export tax, wheat & soy have 38% export tax.

    So... its always possible the government would say to all farmers, "You ain't selling anything overseas, and you will only sell locally for a "fair" price."


    Note 1: Can't remember exactly what agricultural product it was; may have been grain, as this now has an export tax.
     
  6. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2010
    Messages:
    13,064
    Likes Received:
    3,292
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    Wealth is a relative concept and that's all I have to say on that.
     
  7. fiatphoney

    fiatphoney New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2010
    Messages:
    1,056
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    You are the rich Aunt.
     
  8. Blame_Game

    Blame_Game New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2010
    Messages:
    153
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I'm not sure what your point is? Your simply agreeing with Jim.

    Jim's point is that: farmland, fuel, fertilizers, machinery, building, legislation compliance, wages and transport are expensive. One billions Chinese are about to join 'the majority' who want uniformity of produce. So there will be a lot more demand for a commodity that costs a lot to supply. So if your a supplier of highly demanded commodity.......chances are you are going to be driving a Lamborghini.
     
  9. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    18,687
    Likes Received:
    4,452
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I do not agree with him. There is no chance the average farmer in Australia will be driving a Lamborghini even if a billion Chinese want our fruit, vegetables and livestock products. We've already got an export market for much of our primary produce and farmers are still going to the wall, fishermen are leaving the industry in droves, and imports of foreign products are on the rise, especially as foreign governments pressure our government to open our domestic markets.

    So who will be driving the Lamboghinis? The CEO's of the large companies that own the valuable farming and grazing land that supply the major markets here and overseas.

    Milk is in high demand - dairy farmers are giving up. Prawns are in high demand - trawlers are being mothballed.

    The quote in the OP does not say Jim makes those points. I made these points. How can farmers in Australia and all the other developed countries make a profit when these business essentials take such a huge chunk out of any profit and governments actively legislate to destroy the industry. The only time our farmers will drive Lamborghinis is when they sell their property to an Asian buyer or a mining company, or get a job in one of the local mines. OR when the whole financial system is reorganised.
     
  10. Argentum

    Argentum Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,970
    Likes Received:
    40
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Australia
    have never heard of making it big farmin at best you live comfortably; the gov or retailers(coles/woolies) will force you to sell at a loss, if you dont have enough to pay for food then ppl start getting angry (assuming theres food available). Australia has plenty. Agin i think a farm is a good place to weather out this storm (finacial one) relatively unharmed even if it gets really bad cause your away from it all even if you dont have a stack, cause no matter what you'll at least have something to eat and trade the surplus for other things(unless you get a drought at the same time as a GFC).
     
  11. Water&Food

    Water&Food New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2012
    Messages:
    2,317
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Away from this hell bent place
    No, he states the damm obvious, bit like spandex. Now, if you want a 'smart man' take a look at mmm....shiney post after yours.

    Rogers has been bull on Agriculture for years, just like being bull on China.

    I've said food is important to stock than anything else. get seeds.

    @mmm....shiney
    You forgot about 'black market farming'. :p

    Grow your own stuff and barter with others growing crap.
     
  12. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,762
    Likes Received:
    91
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Shanghai:Sydney
    Thanks MatrixOpals... very true... Jim Rogers does state the obvious... but many people still miss the obvious.

    mmm....shiney is incredibly intelligent too. He was at the front of the Modern Chinese Coin trend.

    Shiney is also right when he says "We've already got an export market for much of our primary produce and farmers are still going to the wall..."

    The land (and people) in Australia are incredibly productive, but the government totally kills the primary food industry through legislation. It's easier for me to import meat into China from almost any other nation than it is from Australia due to all the export controls and industry regulations.

    You're very smart too MatrixOpals... I just started my mini-aquaponics garden... hopefully I'll be able to scale it up in the future.
     
  13. Water&Food

    Water&Food New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2012
    Messages:
    2,317
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Away from this hell bent place
    You are very kind Yennus. What do you want? :p

    What size tanks are you using? If you are using the 1000L cube caged tanks on skid pallets, how much are you paying for each one? Just curious to compare to what I pay. So far I have yet to see cheaper than $100 ea.
    .
     
  14. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,762
    Likes Received:
    91
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Shanghai:Sydney
    aeheh... a few opals would be nice :)

    I'm only using a 260L plastic square tank at the moment. Starting small... dreaming big.

    Paid about $100AUD for the tank, 2 mini growbeds, pump, aerator and piping.

    I'm not sure whether to go for yabbies or cold fresh water fish, or both. Since it is crazy hot in summer, and then extremely cold in winter.
     
  15. radiobirdman

    radiobirdman Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2011
    Messages:
    2,260
    Likes Received:
    83
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Bugger all money in farming lucky to get a 5% return
     
  16. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2011
    Messages:
    5,805
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Never invest for the present... always for the future.
     
  17. Earthjade

    Earthjade Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2011
    Messages:
    872
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    AU
    Depends on the crop you grow.

    [​IMG]
    Source: Someone's roof
     
  18. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,762
    Likes Received:
    91
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Shanghai:Sydney
    hehe...
    those medicinal herbs will bring in better than 5% in some countries... :)
    in other countries life imprisonment or death... :(
     
  19. Lovey80

    Lovey80 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2011
    Messages:
    2,322
    Likes Received:
    94
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Sunshine Coast, QLD
    The reason Australian farmers are going to the wall is because of the free trade agreements. When you have a free trade agreement with a country that heavily subsidises their farmers you are simply stacking the odds against your own people.

    Don't worry, the American et al subsidies won't last for ever. When all the Aussie farmers are out of business and foreign owned they will be so profitable that subsidies will not be necessary.
     
  20. Rubbing Elbows

    Rubbing Elbows Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2011
    Messages:
    231
    Likes Received:
    37
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    Adelaide
    I've just recently bought 2 cheap allotments in South Australia to tuck away for when the tide turns for agriculture, and I believe this will happen within the next 10 years.

    One 6 acre allotment, zoned horticulture with 27 meg water delivery rights

    320 acre allotment zoned primary production/livestock
     

Share This Page