Big Big day for Greece tmrw.... What will they do?

theiain1 · Jun 17, 2012

From Zero Hedge:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-election-cheat-sheet

Information surrounding the Greek Election, Courtesy of Global Macro Leverage Sales:

12:00 EDT/17:00 London Polls close
14:00 EDT/19:00 London 15:00 EDT/20:00 London First official projection
17:00 EDT/2200 London Updated projections
19:00 EDT/24:00 London another updated projection
1:00 EDT/6:00 London (Monday) Final results expected
The outcome will be too close to call if the difference between the first two parties is less than 2%-3% with strong precedent of exit polls failing to predict the outcome when the race is tight.

Where can I follow the results?

Official results are to be streamed onto the Ministry of Interior website (ekloges.ypes.gr).
These results will NOT be an accurate representation of the final outcome. Numbers are fed through as they come in and this strongly biases the sample towards the rural regions in the early hours of counting.
The Ministry of Interior will be releasing more reliable estimates of the final result on Greek TV - this will not be available on the website.
The international press may also be reporting the unweighted "raw" results rather than the weighted sample - so, care needs to be taken in interpreting these results.

Who will win?

Polls released before the blackout period pointed to a moderate lead for New Democracy over SYRIZA, but with a large number of undecided.
The absence of a TV debate (talks on arranging that broke down one week ago) is likely to have worked in favour of New Democracy leader, Samaras.
The Spanish bank recapitalization package has not had a major influence on the strength of the political discourse of either SYRIZA or New Democracy, merely strengthening both parties' calls for the need to re-negotiate.

What happens on Monday?

In Greece, coalition talks will begin immediately.
It is unlikely that any party wins a sufficient number of votes to form an independent government.
A combined 35-40% of the vote (depending on how many parties cross the 3% threshold to enter parliament) is required to have a sufficient number of MPs (more than 150) to form a government.
The party leader of the top three parties each has the right to attempt to form a government for three days.
If these attempts fail, the President of the Republic convenes all leaders to try and generate consensus.
If this fails, a third election will be called.

Will a government be formed?

If New Democracy comes first, a government with PASOK (and possibly Democratic Left) will be formed in a relatively short period. Participation from the Democratic Left would be a positive as it would broaden the new government's democratic legitimacy and increase its stability.
If SYRIZA wins, formation of a government would be more difficult. This would likely involve support or "tolerance" from one or more of the Independent Greeks, Democratic Left, PASOK and the Communists, in roughly that order of likelihood.
Tolerance" would involve the parties abstaining from parliament during the confidence vote. Confidence vote can be obtained (subject to 120 being present in parliament) subject to a majority of MPs present voting in favour.
Click to expand...

(Monday)
02:00 AEST Polls close
04:00 - 05:00 AEST First official projection
07:00 AEST Updated projections
09:00 AEST another updated projection
15:00 AEST Final results expected

mmm....shiney! · Jun 17, 2012

How does Greece leave the Eurozone if it doesn't have a leader or a party that forms Government? Only one party is in favour of exiting the Euro - the communists - and we know they won't win, 9% of the vote in May. Because of their "exit Euro" stance no one will form a coalition with them. These are my scenarios in order of likelihood following the result of this month's elections:

a. Nothing will change, the crisis will continue to limp along, social unrest will escalate and we'll be reading much of the same news for the next 2 months until Greece has another election. The terms of the Euro bailout may be renegotiated thoiugh. Likelihood of occurring = 96%.
b. Greece will voluntarily exit the EEC. Likelihood of occurring = 3.9%
c. Greece will be asked to leave the EEC. Likelihood of occurring = 0.1%

Don't hold your breath waiting for a decisive event. You might go purple in the process.

JulieW · Jun 17, 2012

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/16/greek-election-what-could-happen

Greek election: what could happen
The crucial vote could swing in several directions, from a Syriza-led radical coalition to political deadlock

Supporters of the radical left Syriza party cheer their leader Alexis Tsipras during a political rally in the city of Thessaloniki. Photograph: Grigoris Siamidis/Reuters
Pro-reform parties win

The centre-right "pro-European" New Democracy party emerges as front-runner but there is no outright winner. It forges a "national salvation" government with the socialist Pasok party, which also backs reforms in return for rescue funds from the EU, ECB and IMF. The coalition commits to the conditions of the latest 130bn bailout and terms are eased. Short-term stability could lead to more prevarication by Germany's Angela Merkel in dealing with greater EU fiscal unity. By delaying the crucial decisions, the eurozone staggers towards the next crisis.

Likelihood 5 out of 10

Weak pro-Europe government

Reform-minded "pro-European" forces win power but by a slight margin. A government is formed, but is constantly undermined by anti-bailout far-left Syriza party which becomes bold as opposition grows on the streets. The government falls in the autumn when called to pass further belt-tightening measures. The EU, ECB and IMF are encouraged by some to turn off the cash tap at Greeks' failure to honour austerity pledges. A possible contagious collapse in confidence across Europe threatens UK with a two-year recession as trade with the continent dries up.

Likelihood 8 out of 10

Victory for radicals

Anti-austerity forces led by Syriza party emerge as the frontrunner. Syriza forms a government with Pasok and the Democratic Left. Another possible coalition partner is the populist rightwing Independent Greeks party after the orthodox KKE communist party rebuffs its overtures. Greece is on a collision course with foreign lenders as the government puts a brake on the EU-IMF dictated austerity and structural reform programme. Chaos erupts when creditors withhold loans and Greece is forced to declare bankruptcy. If Greece leaves the euro, Germany could be jolted into action and pursue fiscal unity in Europe, smothering any panic among other states. If the Germans don't act, it could lead to an economic armageddon.

Likelihood 5 out of 10

Political deadlock

Neither New Democracy nor Syriza win enough votes to form a coalition government. After weeks of negotiations, it is announced that fresh elections must be held. The ECB, IMF and EU have no one to negotiate with. A disorderly default is likely as creditors lose patience.

Likelihood 2 out of 10
Click to expand...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/16/life-greece-state

People are voting for parties they never would have considered before, expressing the fear, anger and general sense of uncertainty that has taken root in every heart. Many who were left of centre will vote for the conservative New Democracy party because it says it will not prompt a crisis with our creditors and so the reforms and loans will continue. Others who never considered themselves leftists are flocking to the other pole, the radical left coalition Syriza, which declares that the loan and reform package (known here as the "memorandum") is already null and void.

More unsettling is the new prominence of a group of violent rightwing extremists, who are drawing support from many who might never have thought of voting for them but, feeling powerless, want proxy hard men strutting about the country.

With our vote, we will show that our parties' time is up, because none of them seems fit to deal with the challenges that they will face in government. And this, as much as our threat to the euro, is something that should concern the rest of Europe. Many of Greece's challenges are unique, but our country distils problems inherent in Europe's unification and one of them is the inability of political forces to deal with rising popular anger at home while at the same time co-ordinating action at the European level.

The Greeks are split and disorientated, with the two centrist parties (New Democracy and centre-left Pasok) that have dominated politics since 1974 losing most of their support and credibility. There is no centre now, no powerful party synonymous with the state, no one to offer the reassurance of the old political patrons.

Just as the economic crisis was first seen as a purely Greek problem, only to lead to much more fundamental questioning of the EU's determination to protect its common currency, so too the political crisis could signal what is in store in other countries. When the traditional formula of austerity and reforms brings no swift results other than to push great numbers of people into unemployment, poverty and despair, while undermining the confidence of citizens and businesses, people will turn their backs on reality and seek comfort either in the past, in shared grievances or in populists' false promises.
Click to expand...

boston · Jun 17, 2012

Any news yet?

Dirtbikepilot · Jun 17, 2012

boston said:

Any news yet?
Click to expand...

No not yet. The following link will provide all you need to know and it is in English.

http://www.ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012b/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"main","params":{}}

errol43 · Jun 17, 2012

1st exit polls... too close to call...0.5% difference between 2 main parties..

Regards Errol 43

TheEnd · Jun 17, 2012

It's a close one..

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/br...e-edge-elections/story-e6frf7jx-1226398194517

doomsday surprise · Jun 17, 2012

Greece has voted for.....................................................nothing! When's the next election?

MacAg · Jun 17, 2012

This from the Herald Sun

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/mo...vital-greek-poll/story-fn7x8me2-1226398053938

NEW Democracy leader Antonis Samaras has declared victory in the Greek elections, averting fears of an exit from the euro with a promise to honour his country's financial obligations.

cont....
Click to expand...

josh_xc · Jun 17, 2012

Yeah news.com.au also stated there is a winner - Antonis Samaras

thatguy · Jun 17, 2012

josh_xc said:

Yeah news.com.au also stated there is a winner - Antonis Samaras
Click to expand...

And the winner is Fiatman Sachs :|

josh_xc · Jun 17, 2012

I am assuming because of this news gold and silver will drop a fair bit today.

Peter · Jun 18, 2012

In Australia ,AUD up,gold in USD down,so gold in AUD down:maybe,I thinks.
But times are very fluid.In a week I expect the opposite.
I expect AUD to start falling against gold.

Caput Lupinum · Jun 18, 2012

Greece still has to fumble around and try and form a workable government in the next few days. They'd be better off naming a souvlaki as prime minister as it will have as much influence in running the country as one.

mmm....shiney! · Jun 18, 2012

Mmm....souvlaki!

Byron · Jun 18, 2012

The MSM went into overdrive trying to scare voters from backing anti-bailout parties.

PASOK and ND will make a pro-bailout, pro-austerity coalition. However more people voted for anti-bailout parties than for. Samaras has some nerve to claim victory when ND only got 30% of the vote - only 3% more than the radical left Syriza.

Current law gives a "bonus" 50 seats to the party with the most votes, hence why ND will have more seats than any other party. This is a ridiculous law, introduced recently to benefit the party in power.

Interestingly the far-right Golden Dawn party, did nearly as well as last time with just under 7%.

However nothing will improve, things will only get worse for the people.

There will be huge protests, anarchy and violence. Perhaps even a violent overthrow of the pro-austerity government.

Greece will remain a basketcase for at least 10 years, probably more.

Interactive election map in English:

http://national12b.ekloges.dolnet.gr/index.php?lang=en

bordsilver · Jun 18, 2012

I think this thread needs to be thinned a little. I'm annoyed I wasted my time reading the irrelevant half.

TheEnd · Jun 18, 2012

Bloody hell what an absolute mess and shambles...... Also with apparent 'democratic' law allowing 50 bonus votes...
The next week should be very interesting indeed.

Dirtbikepilot · Jun 18, 2012

mmm....shiney! said:

Mmm....souvlaki!
Click to expand...

Yummm. I like souvlaki.

Jimmy1986 · Jun 18, 2012

so what does this mean for silver?

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Big Big day for Greece tmrw.... What will they do?

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