Several members have recently posted photos of their 2000 Frosty Pandas, and these images got me to questioning current eBay prices. I realize that I may not have the most current info, but my data is probably representative. I'm a bit confused about the retail price paid for the 2000 Frosty Silver Panda 10Y vs the price paid for the 2001 and 2002 Silver Panda's I only have information on NGC graded coins, but according to the data that I have it indicates that there are more total NGC graded 2000 Frosty Silver Pandas (1255) than the 2001 Silver Panda (1237) or the 2002 Silver Panda (1031). The 2001D has much fewer NGC graded coins (843) than the other three. The NGC graded 2000 Frosty is selling for about 3x the price of the other three mentioned dates. I understand that I'm not taking into account either PCGS or the OMP coins that have survived, but don't the prices of these other categories have prices that vary based on the supply of coins in each of those categories, and they may not move in tandem with the NGC graded coin prices? All of the NGC graded Silver Panda's dated prior to 2000 have significantly lower populations, though the current market prices of those coins are not as pricey as the 2000 Frosty...Why? Thank you in advance for your comments. Dave
I can't speak for everyone but I think this is a classic example of popularity over population. The millennium year was a big deal for China (yennus has a good breakdown on this, it escapes me at the moment) and therefore Chinese coins, the price of the frosted reflects this. '01 and '02 doesn't have the same impact so the coins are not as desirable. It also helps that one of the big 3, the mirrored variety, was minted in this year which helps drag the price of the frosted along. Depending on the coin sometimes popularity is all important and you won't always find the higher prices being paid for rarer coins.
If you collect one for year. And you dont have the $$$ to pay for the mirror. You will buy the frosted. Same to microdate.
This is a case where popularity due to rarity caused a rush of graded specimens to show up. The 2000 panda is far and away rarer than the 2001 panda. But since prices jumped so dramatically over the last 2 years, many collectors submitted all the 2000 pandas that they had. So the graded population for the 2000 panda is a much larger percentage of the total 2000 panda population as compared to the 2001 case. Hope that made sense!
Yes, that makes sense, But... I understand that eBay is a major Panda exchange for graded coins. There are several dealers offering MS69 graded Pandas with quantities of close to 100 available. Based on the NGC population reports, 100 units represent approximately 10% of the total ever graded for a particular year. I would expect that the price in a "normal" supply and demand driven market to decline because there appears to be an over supply, but these dealers keep the prices high. It also appears that the Fanboys that hype these coins are creating a pricing bubble, because there are very few coins and it appears even fewer collectors, especially at these high multiples of spot (in excess of 10x). I'm just concerned that the current prices are not the result of supply and demand but rather excellent marketing. Are Panda's in a pricing bubble? The 2010 NGC MS69 Silver 10Y Panda has a population of 19,203. That is nearly 10 times the number of MS69 silver 10Y from any previous year, but the dealers are raising the prices on these coins and they are selling at 3X spot! Something appears wrong in my humble opinion.
If you are looking at later year pandas (2002 and forward), I'd tend to kind of agree. There's a reason badon and I at LBC recommend only MS70 pandas for 2002-2009 and leave off 2010+ entirely.
Panda prices have leveled off/slightly declined recently, how much that has to do with a Panda bubble & how much does it have to do with the decline in silver pricing is the question. Time will tell... it's wise to be aware of this, keep an eye on it and buy accordingly. tamo42's Chinese Coin Investment List might be helpful. http://www.livebusinesschat.com
