Anybody read: Debunking the Hyperinflation of Peter Schiff...

Discussion in 'General Precious Metals Discussion' started by grinners, Mar 22, 2012.

  1. grinners

    grinners Active Member Silver Stacker

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  2. Black_Sun

    Black_Sun New Member

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    anyone who names a single individual, as is done here, and trys to debunk that named individual, is a tosser. presumably he has trouble sleeping at night cause he's so damn worried about what Peter's next move might be. if you have a decent argument then present it on its own merits. you don't see professional scientific papers being published, where they mention the names of other scientists who they are attempting to "debunk".

    John Williams is a believer in hyperinflation, and he's followed by lots of people worth 10-100s of millions of dollars. you don't get to be this wealthy by being stupid.

    In Zimbabwe & Germany, before their hyperinflations, people could not understand why the price of gold started acting funny, like it was in a bubble. :)
     
  3. Trichter

    Trichter Member

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    Honestly, I wouldn't bother getting it. If you want decent counterpoint to the inflation crowd read the likes of Steve Keen and theautomaticearth. What you'll find is that the debate is a little more nuanced than a simple dichotomy between inflation and deflation. I haven't read the book mentioned above but I hazard a guess you will not find that depth in it.

    If you want proof against Schiff inflation theory, it is available in graphical form below. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's latest article for the Telegraph provides data on the ineffectiveness of the global liquidity taps used to create growth, inflation, market stability, etc. It is easy to argue that central banks will simply print increasingly large sums of money to accelerate monetary velocity and destroy currency value, the truth more complex as many obstacles hinder the effectiveness of printing.

    [​IMG]
    Source: Telegraph

    Here's a key quote:

    Nick Bullman from the consultancy CheckRisks said that should give pause for thought. "It's terrifying that markets are rising given what's going on in the real world," he said.


    Rightly or wrongly, the US Federal Reserve does not intend to do anything about this. Time is running out for Ben Bernanke before the US election season closes the political window on fresh stimulus, yet he gave no hint of largesse in his latest testimony to Congress. He fretted about inflation instead, causing gold to crash over $100 (64) an ounce within hours.


    Regional Fed hawks are in any case near revolt. Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher dismissed talk of more QE was "wishful thinking". "It is not our job to prop up Wall Street," he said


    So the Fed is hunkering down even though Mr Bernanke himself warns that the US faces a "massive fiscal cliff" later this year as automatic tax increases come into force.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...uidity-peak-spells-trouble-for-late-2012.html
     
  4. chimpanchu

    chimpanchu New Member

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    There seems to be a whole movement trying to debunk Peter Schiff's theory.

    There is a YouTube channel, the entire channel DEDICATED to slander attack on Peter Schiff, it's so unbelieable. Whoever own this channel must have a personal vendetta against Schiff, he made videos after videos dozens of them ripping off Peter Schiff's videos and re-edit them, putting stupid comments on screen. The whole campaign is a cheap shot against Schiff.

    I wonder if this "someone" got a life at all outside bashing Schiff. Or if this guy a genuine at all, maybe he's a paid-off by the banksters to this stuff.

    And now we got a BOOK dedicated to smash Schiff! Wow... the banksters must be desperate.
     
  5. Captain Kookaburra

    Captain Kookaburra Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I've read the book. Still have it sitting on the shelf. The arguments used were poor, and clearly drew inferences that it couldn't support.

    Found it strengthened the case rather than debunking it.
     
  6. RMoh

    RMoh New Member

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    Yes, I have read the book since I am the author, lol! I receive a google alert when the title gets posted somewhere so I find these discussions of the book quickly. I can respond here briefly to specific questions about why there won't be the runaway prices that many expect. I've also posted quite a bit of material on my website at www.hyperinflation-us.com.

    Thanks,


    Richard Moheban
     
  7. Captain Kookaburra

    Captain Kookaburra Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The power of the Internet. :)

    Prices are going up at an staggering rate here in Australia. But only in non-descretionary items that are not purchased with debt. Ie some foods, electricity and gas. Anything we can defer purchasing is seeing a price drop or flat prices.

    I'll have to reread this book again and then I'd be in a better position to discuss further.

    I'd also be interested to hear what you would add now in the year or so since this book was written.

    Ck.
     
  8. Trichter

    Trichter Member

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    I agree that predictions of imminent hyperinflation in the US dollar are wrong, Richard. Please provide an alternative fiscal and monetary scenario for the USA so we can measure it against that of Schiff and his ilk.
     
  9. systematic

    systematic Well-Known Member

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    You have to post the full title of the book to summon the author
     
  10. Black_Sun

    Black_Sun New Member

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    Like a genii out of a bottle. Its quite neat really. Got to give Richard credit for showing up & posting.

    [​IMG]

    PS: Richard's book might not even mention silver, so this point may be irrelevant - but the best reasons for owning silver (not gold) have absolutely nothing to do with any hyperinflation fears.
     
  11. Earthjade

    Earthjade Member

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    For hyperinflation to become a reality, the money has to find its way into the hands of the common people.
    While the Fed is giving money away to their banking friends, the credit card interest rate in the US is 17% and home loans at about 4.1%
    Clearly, what is happening is that banks are taking the money and tossing it into their accounts that are bleeding red and threatening us with massive deflation.
    They're also pocketing the difference in the interest rates they charge consumers compared to the near-zero rate they get the money for.

    How is hyperinflation supposed to occur in this scenario?
    If oil, food, utilities and rent go up due to inflation, this isn't being matched by an inflation in wages and salaries or an increase in the use of credit.
    All this means is that instead of hyperinflation, the loss of purchasing power is impoverishing the general populace, which is currently deleveraging.

    Until they engineer a way of getting all that cheap money to ordinary people, hyperinflation ISN'T going to happen.
    If anything, we're staring down the cliff of DEFLATION - that's where the can will go when it gets its final kick.
     
  12. chimpanchu

    chimpanchu New Member

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    Why do prices of items these days are rising at an alarming rate if deflationary force is greater than inflation?

    The Fed is doing QEs printing money to bail out large corporations, new dollars came into existance in trillions. Eventhough the banks are not lending today, it doesn't mean they won't lend tomorrow or the day after...

    With a huge amount of new liquidity created and piled on top of banks around the world, is like rising water level in a dam. Effectively creating a situation of Dam waiting to burst. All it take is for these banks to start lending again, do you really think banks will stop lending forever??? Banks that are not lending are NO banks.
     
  13. Earthjade

    Earthjade Member

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    And what is going to make them lend again?
    If everything is going up except wages and salaries, why would they lend to ordinary people, who are less and less likely able to pay back the principal?
    QE being a dam is a nice theory, but you need to tell me what exactly will start encouraging the banks to lend to common folk that are becoming more and more impoverished.
     
  14. errol43

    errol43 New Member Silver Stacker

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    Hyper-inflation is the only way that I can see for the USA to pay of the $15,000,000,000,000 debt.

    Thats the easy way.

    Regards Errol 43
     
  15. Aengrod

    Aengrod Member

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    There fixed that for you. Hyperinflation first happens in minds, then printing press comes in, to meet expectations.

    I think FOFOA was writing something along those lines.
     
  16. REDBACK

    REDBACK Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    RMoh - "And I say people, as the Austrian school simply views consumer prices as inextricably linked to the money supply, as if little else matters, such as people's perceptions, and people's propensities for taking pricing action (or no action). You just can't have a viable price inflation model that completely removes human behavior from the equation. Sorry Milton."

    REDBACK-Could not your view and The Austrian economics view be married together by viewing Human behaviour as the accelerator(Muscle) to the Austrian economic view(Backbone) of inflation.
    I honestly can't comprehend how you can disengage the two.
    Is that the point your making with the above statement?
    Cheers
    REDBACK
     
  17. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

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    [​IMG]
    Companies not spending but saving is deflationary as well, but there will always be deflation before printing. Deflation causes the printing
     
  18. Earthjade

    Earthjade Member

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    Here, straight from Wikipedia:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Models_of_hyperinflation

    For anyone wondering what the velocity of money is in the US econonomy at this time, the broadest measure (M3) is in bright green:

    [​IMG]

    Right off a cliff after Lehman Brothers - sure looks like a liquidity trap to me!
    So the reality is that we are, and have been, in a DEFLATION since 2008.
    Where people get confused is when they assume that deflation must mean falling prices across the board, but it does not have to.
    Deflation is:

    1) A drop in the velocity of money (how fast it circulates in the economy)
    2) A collapse in general levels of demand in the economy

    What the Fed has been doing with QE is pumping the system with money in an effort to arrest the collapse of the velocity of money.
    So far, they have only succeeded in stabilising it, at the cost of many hundreds of billions of dollars.
    The minute they take the monetary crack away, it's back into the liquidity trap and deflation.
    In other words - Great Depression 2.
    Remember, if there is no increase in monetary velocity, you're NOT going to get hyperinflation.
    And by all measures, the velocity is collapsing.

    This is the situation where we stand today.
     
  19. Trichter

    Trichter Member

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    Deflation is simply a contraction in the available money and credit supply. It is, I would argue, a far more likely outcome than hyperinflation. Everything is pointing in that direction ... QE notwithstanding.
     
  20. REDBACK

    REDBACK Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    History can just as easily make an ass of all past economic theories.
    Hyperinflation-Maybe
    Deflation-Maybe
    Why not a combination of the two-Maybe
    Its becoming increasingly difficult to take a pure stance on any of the economic theories available today.
    The markets are so heavily saturated with manipulation everyones just spruking and guessing their ass away.
    I find reading Alice in wonderland a more productive use of time,while not quite as entertaining it just makes a hell of a lot more sense.
    America as a Superpower has the advantage of world reserve currency status,world wide military,economic and financial dominance.
    It has the collusive backing of international bankers who will not allow the entire Global financial system to be influenced by anything not in their long term interests.
    Blah Blah Blah,this is not new news its Current economic practice 101
    There's no such thing as economic theory 101.
    Yet we argue amongst ourselves,Hyperinflation,Stagflation,Deflation..who gives a shiet.
    If you had a pet animal that paranoid and self defensive over his bowl of food you would give them the bullet
    If you had a tyrant in your family as Narcissistic and financially destructive as the powers and bankers that be they would be homeless because you would show them the door.
    I see people becoming politically and financially literate yet dumbing down savagely when it comes to their God given natural rights to freedom and independance.
    Had the words of the 'Declaration of Independence' not been immortalised in American history i would have thought they were written by Hans Christian Anderson for all the relevance they convey today.
    Man we are so fckn blind,gutless and common sense stupid i wonder how were going to get thru the next hundred years without becoming branded cattle.

    REDBACK
     
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