My thoughts are that it will at least revert back to it's historical average of 12-15/1. My reasoning quite simply is that this is the historical ratio, plus the ratio of silver to gold in the ground is about 9/1. What are your thoughts on the GSR?
That means silver needs to hit $100/oz and Gold remain where it currently is. To me, that seems basically impossible.
If you look at historical ratios and ratio of abundance in Earth's crust there are a lot of things out there which follow neither. I just look at supply/demand instead, ratios are hardly definitive by themselves.
I think that you are both right. It can't happen today, it will need to creep to that ratio over 5 or 6 years. Mid 2017, GSR 15:1, you heard it here first!
Are historical ratios even viable today? surely mining has become far more efficient and larger as the years go by. Were they getting Silver as a by-product back in the day? from what I understand that is a rather recent technological advancement. Think about how much extra Silver we produce from various different processes and it raises allot of questions. Questions I'd like to have answers to by the way. In 1792 the US Congress passed the First Coinage Act, which set it at 15/1 (bumping it up to 16 40ish years later). Do we mine more Silver these days? pretty safe guess to assume so and as a result I really don't think we'll get that low again. Contrary to popular belief we are not going to run out of Silver, at least not in our lifetime, so upping mining production just means more Silver rather than quickening the depletion of the metal. I don't really want to give a prediction, I have too many questions I need answers to before I can do so.
The way I see it (from a very simplistic laymans viewpoint) is that regardless of what the actual physical ratios are, the GSR does in fact seem to have a trend and some stackers use this as an indicator of which metal to buy at what time to (hopefully) increase the opportunity for further rises in their favour. Is the GSR currently at/near a top and possibly about to head down? We will see I guess, although I'm betting (more of) my money on it doing that - how low will it go? I have NFI
I traded eight ounces of gold in August 2010 for 490 silver maples I thought it was a good trade at the time I miss my gold maples though Thinking I am going to buy some more of those I was going to trade back to gold starting at 25:1 but as you all know we never made it that far.
"16:1 ratio coming soon" - just another unfounded claim by PM hacks. Primary Reasons given for this occurring: 1) It has been at 16:1 in the past = ASX: "past performance is no indication of future performance" - this is 100% indisputable 2) The above ground ratio is different to the price ratio = Firstly this is irrelevant as the two metals serve different purposes. Just look at the gold coal ratio? Gold is being hoarded by central banks NOT silver - this should account for any price/ratio discrepancies - supply/demand 3) And many other half truths that I will not go into...... I am an investor not a speculator and if you are basing your silver positions on this ratio then you are speculating IMO. There is no trend in the ratio - in fact there is a good chance it will end up back at 100:1 with $12 silver - Seriously does anyone have any real tangible reasons why all these people keep calming this ridiculous 16:1 ratio?
The best laid plans fall to pieces by the time the first shot is fired. Who really knows? predicion of future is always based on the past. There is a case for silver even being worth more than gold on an oz for oz basis. Will it get there, I do not know, and I doubt it, but there is logic behind the claims rather than just picking a number. You need something to work with.
At the end of 3rd phase of bull market, you will surely see more ridiculous things than "coming back to historical 16:1 ratio"
At the start of 2009 the GSR was over 70.. At one stage it got down to 40..I was waiting for it to go to 30 to start a swap over to gold. I think that quite a few SS members at below 40 stage made the move to gold. If that is your intention, then the hard part is to pick the lowest ratio..No one likes to think that they loose fiat money so they hang off a little too long.. Ah but over time you learn the ropes but who knows what may happen next time and I'll probably make the wrong call. Thats why it helps if you can own both gold and silver. You can play one against the other. Regards Errol 43
To me this is the most important aspect of stacking. When you stack physical because you understand the paper game is rigged. To preserve your wealth and avoid the risk of waking up one day finding your wealth eliminated because you didn't hold it so you don't own in. The GSR to me is the true value of gold or silver, it annoys me to see so much discussion of how many dollars they are worth. All this truly shows is how much paper money is worth/how everyones faith in the system is holding up. People often quote "historic" GSR's of 16:1 etc of course this is a ratio derived from silver's use as money for large periods of history. IMO the direction of the GSR could go either way this year, if the bankers manage to get another war going I see Gold out preforming silver. However id they can't find the support for war, they have no way of hiding the fact that western civilization is bankrupt in the current monetary system. In this outcome I see silver out preforming gold.
... It's only going to get higher! ... My crystal ball said silver is going to go down down before it goes back to 35 or 40 a oz..
If the price of silver gets too high (ie: ever gets above $50), then technology will just up with a substitute. I remember my grandfather used to say that if the price of platinum ever exceeded $400 per oz, that technology would just come up with a substitute. I recall lots of politicians and market commentators used to say that if oil ever exceeded $40 a barrel, that technology would just come up with a substitute. Meanwhile think-tanks around the world are getting worried. Thankfully we are not members of those think-tanks, hence we have "no worries mate... it'll sort itself out." If necessary we'll just go to Mars and mine there too. Saturn also is pretty cool, a lot bigger, a lot more resources there... whoo hoo That's if technology does not invent an "atom re-arranger" first, like on Star Trek. If these think-tanks were to invite some of us silverstackers to their conference, we could alleviate their worries for them. Imagine yourself standing at the podium, before a gathering of some of the world's best scientists, and you start your speech to them thus, "You don't need to be worried, if the price gets too high mate, technology will just come up with a substitute... believe me!! I'm a silverstacker!! Hear my words..." I wonder how much they would pay us for a quality speech like that? :lol:
